Lennard Welslau
@lennardwelslau.bsky.social
PhD Fellow, University of Copenhagen and Danmarks Nationalbank
https://lennardwelslau.github.io/
https://lennardwelslau.github.io/
EU rules are forward looking, requiring more adjustment in their initial application. I estimate EU SPB targets below zero by 2035, while they remain close to 0.9% under the debt brake. Over 11 years (7+4 year adjustment), the difference could average 0.8 pp and total more than 450 bn EUR. 4/5
December 23, 2024 at 4:54 PM
EU rules are forward looking, requiring more adjustment in their initial application. I estimate EU SPB targets below zero by 2035, while they remain close to 0.9% under the debt brake. Over 11 years (7+4 year adjustment), the difference could average 0.8 pp and total more than 450 bn EUR. 4/5
The debt brake's structural deficit cap, would imply SPBs between 0.75% and 0.9% of GDP (without gradual adjustment). For a 4-year adjustment, the avg. permitted annual structural deficit would be 0.47 pp (21 bn EUR) lower than under EU rules. For a 7-year adjustment 0.7 pp (34 bn EUR) lower. 3/5
December 23, 2024 at 4:54 PM
The debt brake's structural deficit cap, would imply SPBs between 0.75% and 0.9% of GDP (without gradual adjustment). For a 4-year adjustment, the avg. permitted annual structural deficit would be 0.47 pp (21 bn EUR) lower than under EU rules. For a 7-year adjustment 0.7 pp (34 bn EUR) lower. 3/5
Consumption-based diff. btw inflation faced by low- and high-income HHs reduced over recent months due to disinflation in energy and food prices. I built a data app presenting joint work with Bruegel colleagues: inflation-inequality.onrender.com (feedback welcome, original article: t.co/mi5hbR8dqU)
February 10, 2024 at 3:44 PM
Consumption-based diff. btw inflation faced by low- and high-income HHs reduced over recent months due to disinflation in energy and food prices. I built a data app presenting joint work with Bruegel colleagues: inflation-inequality.onrender.com (feedback welcome, original article: t.co/mi5hbR8dqU)
Our assessment of yesterday's Council compromise on on the reform of the EU fiscal rules: A reasonable outcome overall, in some respects better, in others worse than the Commission’s April proposal:
December 21, 2023 at 9:40 AM
Our assessment of yesterday's Council compromise on on the reform of the EU fiscal rules: A reasonable outcome overall, in some respects better, in others worse than the Commission’s April proposal: