Len Metson
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Len Metson
@lenmetson.com
440 followers 750 following 51 posts
PhD candidate @LSEGovernment 📚 Interested in campaigns, applied data science and field experiments 💻 he/him

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But even from a purely office-seeking perspective, the issue with the current strategy isn't only that it's losing votes to the left, but it isn't persuading anyone on the right either...

osf.io/preprints/so...
Screenshot of linked paper
October 28, 2025 at 12:54 PM
lenmetson.com
Matching designs be like...

@antonkoenneke.de
Two men wearing the same shirt, reading the same book
October 23, 2025 at 1:09 PM
lenmetson.com
At the Campaign Fringe by @campaign-lab.bsky.social today -

If you're in Liverpool today, make sure to drop by to meet some amazing campaigners and chat about what works in campaigning!

It's at Camp & Furnace (outside the main conference area) so you do not need a pass to come

luma.com/rpu1av03
Stand with posters Panel discussion Sign reading Expo
September 29, 2025 at 11:36 AM
lenmetson.com
Political scientists are finding strong evidence it isn't working

osf.io/preprints/so...
Paper, with abstract: "Social democratic parties across Europe have increasingly adopted restrictive immigration rhetoric in response to radical right challengers’ electoral successes. The consequences of accommodation remain contested. This paper leverages a pre-registered quasi-experimental design exploiting within-individual variation from as-good-as-random exposure to UK Labour leader Keir Starmer’s “Island of Strangers” speech – a major rhetorical turn toward anti-immigration positions. We find that exposure significantly altered perceptions of Labour, making it appear more anti-immigration and right-leaning. Crucially, these shifts carried electoral costs: support for Labour declined within individuals following the speech. While we detect no corresponding gains for the radical right Reform UK party, there is also no evidence that Labour’s adoption of nativist rhetoric diminished Reform’s appeal. Our findings highlight the risks of strategic convergence, showing that accommodation of exclusionary rhetoric by social democratic parties is electorally costly for them rather than for their radical right competitors"
September 8, 2025 at 8:05 AM
lenmetson.com
On my way to @psaepop.bsky.social to present this paper at the PhD pre-conference today at 1pm and the Campaigns panel on Friday at 4pm -

Looking forward to seeing everyone and hearing about lots of exciting research!

#EPOP2025
Paper abstract: "Political campaigns are adopting increasingly sophisticated software to automate highly tailored communication with supporters and potential supporters. This allows campaigns to adapt messages using a wider range of individual-level information, such as individuals’ preferences, previous communications, or issue priorities. Despite a growing literature on micro-targeting by campaigns, previous literature mostly focuses on messages tailored to demographic characteristics. Less is known about the effects of tailoring using individual-level information, which is an increasingly viable option for campaigns. Furthermore, existing literature is reliant upon survey experiments, meaning there is limited understanding of the behavioural effects of targeted political communication in real-world settings. This paper presents the results of a large-scale field experiment (N=11,743) conducted collaboratively with a British pressure group during a real petition campaign. The campaign organisation’s mailing list was randomly assigned to a pure control group or to one of three emails: (1) untailored; (2) tailored; and (3) tailored with explicit reference to the tailoring. The findings reveal that whilst both tailored emails mobilise petition signatures, the effect is substantially larger when emails are explicitly tailored. Notably, no significant difference was observed between plain tailored and untailored conditions. These results provide two theoretical contributions. Firstly, despite theoretical fears of backlash to over-tailored communication in previous literature, individuals respond positively when they are explicitly told that content is individually tailored to them. Additionally, in line with organisational theories of activism, the results provide evidence that tailoring at the individual level acts as a signal of a campaign organisation’s responsiveness."
September 4, 2025 at 9:07 AM
lenmetson.com
Excited to present this paper on the effects of micro-targeting later today at EPSA! Will be in room -1.A.02 at 15:00:
The Behavioural Effects of Individual-Level Message Tailoring l.m.metson@lse.ac.uk Political campaigns are adopting increasingly sophisticated software to automate highly tailored communication with supporters and potential supporters. This allows campaigns to adapt messages using a wider range of individual-level information, such as individuals’ preferences, previous communications, or issue priorities. Despite a growing literature on micro-targeting by campaigns, previous literature mostly focuses on messages tailored to demographic characteristics. Less is known about the effects of tailoring using individual-level information, which is an increasingly viable option for campaigns. Furthermore, existing literature is reliant upon survey experiments, meaning there is limited understanding of the behavioural effects of targeted political communication in real-world settings. This paper presents the results of a large-scale field experiment (N=11,743) conducted collaboratively with a British pressure group during a real petition campaign. The campaign organisation’s mailing list was randomly assigned to a pure control group or to one of three emails: (1) untailored; (2) tailored; and (3) tailored with explicit reference to the tailoring. The findings reveal that whilst both tailored emails mobilise petition signatures, the effect is substantially larger when emails are explicitly tailored. Notably, no significant difference was observed between plain tailored and untailored conditions. These results provide two theoretical contributions. Firstly, despite theoretical fears of backlash to over-tailored communication in previous literature, individuals respond positively when they are explicitly told that content is individually tailored to them. Additionally, in line with organisational theories of activism, the results provide evidence that tailoring at the individual level acts as a signal of a campaign organisation’s responsiveness.
June 26, 2025 at 11:15 AM
lenmetson.com
GOTV scholars hate him! With this ONE weird trick

@antonkoenneke.de
WhatsApp message replying to a message saying "Please remember to vote" with "Thanks for sending this, I will now decide not to vote. I had planned to vote before #defier"
April 18, 2025 at 8:47 AM