Tragic but rational. From the US side, it's not even a Trump-specific problem: any US admin would be similarly cornered unless it goes full on as an active belligerent, which is very hard to sell to voters (the US is not directly threatened now, small chance it would be if active).
November 22, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Tragic but rational. From the US side, it's not even a Trump-specific problem: any US admin would be similarly cornered unless it goes full on as an active belligerent, which is very hard to sell to voters (the US is not directly threatened now, small chance it would be if active).
So Trump options are (1) keep sending weapons with no TV-friendly results for the foreseeable future (2) try anything to get some ceasefire, including farcical Putin-acceptable plan: it makes for good TV, some likes from the America First faction, and next week we'll see.
November 22, 2025 at 10:53 PM
So Trump options are (1) keep sending weapons with no TV-friendly results for the foreseeable future (2) try anything to get some ceasefire, including farcical Putin-acceptable plan: it makes for good TV, some likes from the America First faction, and next week we'll see.
Putin is comfy with the status quo: less than 0.5% of Russian men, almost exclusively low status low IQ, die every year. He advances 5km/year. That is sustainable for his lifetime: no pressing need for a deal. Only a deal that keeps a war state (rearming, preparing season two) is acceptable.
November 22, 2025 at 10:53 PM
Putin is comfy with the status quo: less than 0.5% of Russian men, almost exclusively low status low IQ, die every year. He advances 5km/year. That is sustainable for his lifetime: no pressing need for a deal. Only a deal that keeps a war state (rearming, preparing season two) is acceptable.
Alice makes a cake, that Bob likes very much. Bob asks Alice for the recipe. He follows the recipe but his cake is shit. Alice says it's a "skill issue": Bob can't cook. Bob says the recipe is bad: poorly written, steps missing, ambiguous units, etc, making it hard to bake even for a competent cook.
November 22, 2025 at 9:55 PM
Alice makes a cake, that Bob likes very much. Bob asks Alice for the recipe. He follows the recipe but his cake is shit. Alice says it's a "skill issue": Bob can't cook. Bob says the recipe is bad: poorly written, steps missing, ambiguous units, etc, making it hard to bake even for a competent cook.
Sure. The debt is like $13K per BTC, covenants are unlikely to be much north of that. Saylor is quite good at structuring at the expense of the other parties.
November 21, 2025 at 2:44 PM
Sure. The debt is like $13K per BTC, covenants are unlikely to be much north of that. Saylor is quite good at structuring at the expense of the other parties.
What happens at that level? Why would anyone care? The interesting level is when they need cash to repay some dollar debt, which should be way below cost price.
November 21, 2025 at 12:41 PM
What happens at that level? Why would anyone care? The interesting level is when they need cash to repay some dollar debt, which should be way below cost price.
Grok can be used to search/read X without an account. Other models probably don't have full access to posts.
November 21, 2025 at 12:01 PM
Grok can be used to search/read X without an account. Other models probably don't have full access to posts.
What may save us from deskilling is that AI can scale, or sometimes replace, mentor-based apprenticeships, which is compatible with some junior career paths disappearing – as they did with calculators: you can't start an accounting career "doing the sums".
November 21, 2025 at 11:31 AM
What may save us from deskilling is that AI can scale, or sometimes replace, mentor-based apprenticeships, which is compatible with some junior career paths disappearing – as they did with calculators: you can't start an accounting career "doing the sums".
It's not easy to short private nonprofits.
November 20, 2025 at 10:38 PM
It's not easy to short private nonprofits.
It's pretty good, but what happens if hackers upload new core philosophies to the Firehose? 🤣
November 20, 2025 at 6:32 PM
It's pretty good, but what happens if hackers upload new core philosophies to the Firehose? 🤣
Why bother? If it was me I'd glue the GPUs to the solar panels with a glue gun, put them on a few mountains (avoid clouds, natural cooling) spread longitudinally (for availability). Job done. Can then mock banking CEOs who think a GPU "can't be stopped" as if it was a blast furnace.
November 19, 2025 at 7:24 PM
Why bother? If it was me I'd glue the GPUs to the solar panels with a glue gun, put them on a few mountains (avoid clouds, natural cooling) spread longitudinally (for availability). Job done. Can then mock banking CEOs who think a GPU "can't be stopped" as if it was a blast furnace.
Easier said than done: imagine Tether has 50 cents worth of assets per USDT, it'd take redemption of half to break it. And a lot of it is captive: Kim Jong Un is not going to convert his USDT stash into a Bank of America balance.
November 19, 2025 at 7:07 PM
Easier said than done: imagine Tether has 50 cents worth of assets per USDT, it'd take redemption of half to break it. And a lot of it is captive: Kim Jong Un is not going to convert his USDT stash into a Bank of America balance.
It depends on Nvidia earnings lol.
(or whatever stonks do, proper decoupling seem unlikely at the minute.)
(or whatever stonks do, proper decoupling seem unlikely at the minute.)
November 19, 2025 at 7:04 PM
It depends on Nvidia earnings lol.
(or whatever stonks do, proper decoupling seem unlikely at the minute.)
(or whatever stonks do, proper decoupling seem unlikely at the minute.)
#1 is an issue if the tools are tinker-proof. If tools can be easily subverted (e.g. can the UPS customer service bot be turned into a satanic cult priest from a laptop?) then they are free. I'd be cautiously optimistic here: tinker-proofing is both technically and incentive-wise very hard.
November 19, 2025 at 6:54 PM
#1 is an issue if the tools are tinker-proof. If tools can be easily subverted (e.g. can the UPS customer service bot be turned into a satanic cult priest from a laptop?) then they are free. I'd be cautiously optimistic here: tinker-proofing is both technically and incentive-wise very hard.
How do opted-in accounts that die suddenly get removed? (or less dramatically, when switching to a different app or a new phone, does the opt-in persist?)
(Clients should re-signal the opt-in every N days, and it times out otherwise, rather than "perpetual unless deleted".)
(Clients should re-signal the opt-in every N days, and it times out otherwise, rather than "perpetual unless deleted".)
November 19, 2025 at 10:50 AM
How do opted-in accounts that die suddenly get removed? (or less dramatically, when switching to a different app or a new phone, does the opt-in persist?)
(Clients should re-signal the opt-in every N days, and it times out otherwise, rather than "perpetual unless deleted".)
(Clients should re-signal the opt-in every N days, and it times out otherwise, rather than "perpetual unless deleted".)
To make UBI (relatively) cycle-proof, make the level not nominal but a % of the tax take (or GDP), like share 1/4 or 1/3 of the total tax take equally among the eligible population. It avoids tax and political death spirals on the down leg, and is analogous to inflation-tracking on the up leg.
November 19, 2025 at 10:07 AM
To make UBI (relatively) cycle-proof, make the level not nominal but a % of the tax take (or GDP), like share 1/4 or 1/3 of the total tax take equally among the eligible population. It avoids tax and political death spirals on the down leg, and is analogous to inflation-tracking on the up leg.
The "meaningful lives" issue is a very first world, even first estate, problem. It'll still take generations, at best, before everyone has material conditions they consider good enough to stop replaying the agricultural revolution script (reallocate tasks when productive technology obsoletes some).
November 19, 2025 at 9:59 AM
The "meaningful lives" issue is a very first world, even first estate, problem. It'll still take generations, at best, before everyone has material conditions they consider good enough to stop replaying the agricultural revolution script (reallocate tasks when productive technology obsoletes some).
Exactly: an assumption that robots will "need maintenance" is a myopic truncation of the space of possibilities.
November 18, 2025 at 9:21 PM
Exactly: an assumption that robots will "need maintenance" is a myopic truncation of the space of possibilities.
In the Dems' primary? On the GOP side, the desire to own Michelle Obama, combined with newly copy pasted Zohranesque delivery and anti-incumbency credentials may make MTG unstoppable. 😱
November 18, 2025 at 8:31 PM
In the Dems' primary? On the GOP side, the desire to own Michelle Obama, combined with newly copy pasted Zohranesque delivery and anti-incumbency credentials may make MTG unstoppable. 😱
User takeaway: use classics for literary voices.
November 18, 2025 at 8:18 PM
User takeaway: use classics for literary voices.
Social media amplifies anger: nobody is posting "fine" every time they see something they agree with or don't mind (guilty as charged lol). So while visibility is distorted, the malcontents still do exist in real life, and maybe shouldn't be completely ignored?
November 18, 2025 at 7:03 PM
Social media amplifies anger: nobody is posting "fine" every time they see something they agree with or don't mind (guilty as charged lol). So while visibility is distorted, the malcontents still do exist in real life, and maybe shouldn't be completely ignored?