Laura Coroneo
@lcoroneo.bsky.social
Professor of Economics (University of York), coordinator @CAMFatYork, secretary @MMF_research.
4/ My two cents:
1️⃣ #EconomicForecasting is challenging.
2️⃣ Forecast evaluation is crucial for identifying areas for improvement.
3️⃣ Model-consistent forecasts of the policy path are preferable to inconsistent assumptions based on market expectations.
1️⃣ #EconomicForecasting is challenging.
2️⃣ Forecast evaluation is crucial for identifying areas for improvement.
3️⃣ Model-consistent forecasts of the policy path are preferable to inconsistent assumptions based on market expectations.
November 26, 2024 at 12:03 PM
4/ My two cents:
1️⃣ #EconomicForecasting is challenging.
2️⃣ Forecast evaluation is crucial for identifying areas for improvement.
3️⃣ Model-consistent forecasts of the policy path are preferable to inconsistent assumptions based on market expectations.
1️⃣ #EconomicForecasting is challenging.
2️⃣ Forecast evaluation is crucial for identifying areas for improvement.
3️⃣ Model-consistent forecasts of the policy path are preferable to inconsistent assumptions based on market expectations.
3/ Gertjan Vlieghe (Millenium):
1️⃣ Recent forecast errors stemmed from large shocks, not model failures.
2️⃣ Clear central bank communication is vital for #MonetaryPolicy.
3️⃣Scenarios must be carefully selected and paired with suitable conditioning policy paths.
1️⃣ Recent forecast errors stemmed from large shocks, not model failures.
2️⃣ Clear central bank communication is vital for #MonetaryPolicy.
3️⃣Scenarios must be carefully selected and paired with suitable conditioning policy paths.
November 26, 2024 at 12:03 PM
3/ Gertjan Vlieghe (Millenium):
1️⃣ Recent forecast errors stemmed from large shocks, not model failures.
2️⃣ Clear central bank communication is vital for #MonetaryPolicy.
3️⃣Scenarios must be carefully selected and paired with suitable conditioning policy paths.
1️⃣ Recent forecast errors stemmed from large shocks, not model failures.
2️⃣ Clear central bank communication is vital for #MonetaryPolicy.
3️⃣Scenarios must be carefully selected and paired with suitable conditioning policy paths.
2/ Petra Geraats (Cambridge):
1️⃣ BoE should publish a Forecast Evaluation Report (like the OBR).
2️⃣ Fan charts effectively convey uncertainty.
3️⃣ Market expectations of the policy path are inconsistent with alternative scenarios.
1️⃣ BoE should publish a Forecast Evaluation Report (like the OBR).
2️⃣ Fan charts effectively convey uncertainty.
3️⃣ Market expectations of the policy path are inconsistent with alternative scenarios.
November 26, 2024 at 12:03 PM
2/ Petra Geraats (Cambridge):
1️⃣ BoE should publish a Forecast Evaluation Report (like the OBR).
2️⃣ Fan charts effectively convey uncertainty.
3️⃣ Market expectations of the policy path are inconsistent with alternative scenarios.
1️⃣ BoE should publish a Forecast Evaluation Report (like the OBR).
2️⃣ Fan charts effectively convey uncertainty.
3️⃣ Market expectations of the policy path are inconsistent with alternative scenarios.
1/ Charlie Bean (LSE):
1️⃣ BoE should adopt a formal and open forecast evaluation process (like the OBR).
2️⃣ Market expectations are the best conditioning assumption for policy paths.
3️⃣ Keep fan charts—they complement scenario analysis, not replace it.
1️⃣ BoE should adopt a formal and open forecast evaluation process (like the OBR).
2️⃣ Market expectations are the best conditioning assumption for policy paths.
3️⃣ Keep fan charts—they complement scenario analysis, not replace it.
November 26, 2024 at 12:03 PM
1/ Charlie Bean (LSE):
1️⃣ BoE should adopt a formal and open forecast evaluation process (like the OBR).
2️⃣ Market expectations are the best conditioning assumption for policy paths.
3️⃣ Keep fan charts—they complement scenario analysis, not replace it.
1️⃣ BoE should adopt a formal and open forecast evaluation process (like the OBR).
2️⃣ Market expectations are the best conditioning assumption for policy paths.
3️⃣ Keep fan charts—they complement scenario analysis, not replace it.