These are the first three countries I wanted to talk about, next time I might talk about Iran, Moldova, North Korea, China, Hungary or Serbia.

I hope you enjoyed the thread and let me know if there's anything I missed worth mentioning!

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The president of Georgia has announced she wont step down from her position and has announced the election as fraudulent.

She will likely be forced out of her position on the 29th of December by the government which will likely make protests even worse.

It is unclear what will happen in Georgia.

Large scale protests against the government have been ongoing across the nation following the rigged parliamentary election in October of this year with Georgian Dream "winning" 53% of the vote.

Following this they also announced to pause EU accession talks which made the protests even worse.

3. Georgia.

Georgia is about as much of a Russian ally as someone in an abusive relationship.
Russia occupies 20% of the country since 2008 which are the regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The Georgian Dream party has also been in power for a decade in Georgia with a very pro Russian stance.

After all, Russia is stuck in Ukraine with very few capable reserves for helping others.

Keep an eye on Belarus in the coming months because it could go anywhere from normal to really bad and depending on how easy/difficult the election goes it might even get worse than the situation in Georgia.

This summer BYPOL claimed that several hundred thousand Belorussians are ready for a coordinated coup of the government there that would be launched "at the right time".

I personally don't believe that they have that many people but that "perfect" timing might just be right after around the corner.

The next Belorussian election is 1 month from now on January 25th which could easily spark protests and mass riots against the regime.

An important fact I hadn't said yet is that in 2020 Russian intervened in order to put down the protests.
Do they have the spare capacity to do that again now?

Back in 2020 mass protests erupted in Belarus against Lukashenko after an election between Alexander Lukashenko and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya that is widely believed was rigged in favor of him, Sviatlana has established a government in exile in Lithuania.

Belarus might very soon face turbulent times

2. Belarus.

Belarus ruled by Lukashenko is the loyal puppet of the Russian government, it has assisted in all types of hybrid warfare against Europe and was the staging ground for the failed Russian attack towards Kyiv at the start of the 2022 invasion.

But now with the fall of Assad they have lost those ways of projecting power in the region.

They have also lost both their only naval base in the Mediterranean Sea at the Syrian city of Tartus which will make Russian naval power projection in southern Europe and North Africa far more difficult.

1. Syria (obviously)

The dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad in Syria allowed Russia to project its power abroad to Africa with the Wagner mercenary group.

Russia also used atrocities in Syria as a hybrid warfare tactic against Europe by making more people migrate there increasing the migrant crisis.

It's getting worse by the hour o_o

What the rebels have done in the last ~10 days is nothing short of remarkable

There is also the possibility of the government trying some tomfoolery to remain in power or push an agenda, remains to be seen

While capturing Hama wouldn't mean the end of the war, it opens up the road towards Homs which if captured would cut off Assad controlled coastal Syria with mainland Syria