Russian missile stocks are growing. Russian ballistic missile production now exceeds the global annual output of modern interceptors that Europe can acquire.
What does that mean for Ukraine's defence and Europe's security?

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kyiv-dialogue.org/de/news/news... 9/

The threat from 🇷🇺 ballistic missiles remains a challenge for Europe. To enhance deterrence capabilities, U.S. Tomahawks are initially being deployed in 🇩🇪, while the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) program concurrently develops domestic capabilities. 8/

In light of the growing Russian threat, Europe aims to improve its own air defense. Although Europe produces a variety of air defense systems, it will remain dependent on cooperation with the USA in this area for years to come. 7/ (infographic: www.swp-berlin.org/publikation/...)

Ukraine is effectively countering with enhanced electronic warfare (EW) measures. This leads to a loss of precision in 🇷🇺 glide bombs, resulting in damage to buildings but rarely targeting specific Ukrainian positions. 6/

Suspension of U.S. satellite & recon data had significant consequences:
🚨Patriot air defense systems could not be used effectively
🚨ATACMS/HIMARS could not attack 🇷🇺 air defenses.
Without such deterrence, the now less threatened 🇷🇺 pilots dropped over 1,200 glide bombs in just one week in March. 5/

Cruise missiles & ballistic missiles are being used less frequently. In Feb, 🇷🇺 deployed 80 (in 2024: ~130 per month); Possible reasons include:
I. Production issues
II. Successful 🇺🇦 attacks on 🇷🇺 fuel depots
III. Deliberate restraint for coordinated large-scale attacks 4/

In addition to attack drones, Russia also employed drone decoys/cheap replicas. These mass drone attacks aim to overwhelm Ukrainian air defences to enable subsequent cruise missiles and ballistic rockets to destroy Ukrainian infrastructure. 3/

In February, Russia deployed a record number of drones (>3,700). Ukrainian air defense managed to intercept 98% of these drones, with approximately 42% being countered through electronic warfare measures (e.g., jamming). 2/

Whether you're a policymaker, security expert, journalist, or Ukraine supporter, have a look and let us know what you think. You can reach us on all channels!

What you'll get:
- Data-driven insights on recent developments in Russia's air war
- how to support Ukraine's air defence, based on the actual needs on the ground.
- Background on current policy debates: this volume covers US dependency in weapon systems and air defense systems made in Europe