kubli.bsky.social
@kubli.bsky.social
"Working through the probability tree" is how you get the equation x + x(1-x). If you convert first time and win from there that's a probability of x. Failing then converting is (1-x) * x. Adding these is x+x(1-x). Satisfying the inequality x+x(1-x)>50 is the solution 0.29. Even this years 31% > 29%
November 25, 2024 at 12:45 PM
"Working through the probability tree" is how you get the equation x + x(1-x). If you convert first time and win from there that's a probability of x. Failing then converting is (1-x) * x. Adding these is x+x(1-x). Satisfying the inequality x+x(1-x)>50 is the solution 0.29. Even this years 31% > 29%
Fun fact: No it doesn't! For going for 2 *not* to be the optimal decision, your probability to convert 2pt attempts must be lower than 29%, which is the solution to x + x(1-x) = 0.5 where x is your probability to convert and 0.5 is the 50% chance you win in OT kicking both PATs (assuming no misses)
November 24, 2024 at 9:57 PM
Fun fact: No it doesn't! For going for 2 *not* to be the optimal decision, your probability to convert 2pt attempts must be lower than 29%, which is the solution to x + x(1-x) = 0.5 where x is your probability to convert and 0.5 is the 50% chance you win in OT kicking both PATs (assuming no misses)