Maybe add to it that stats and methods must be tightly coupled in a derivation chain?

such authorities are charlatans. We use these models as a way to produce historical comparisons of similar situations (i.e., collapsing social systems) that can serve as the basis for specifying and testing hypothesis. /7

Thus, no one could replace Trump’s causal role in history. History is about particulars. But this doesn’t mean we can gain no semblance of general knowledge. This general knowledge comes from a an ideal type that specifies the general nature of charismatic authority and the situations under which…/6

The social traits selected for vary by era, so no one will be identical to Trump in the past. Moreover, selection doesn’t necessarily mean success (selection pressures are not teleological). /5

traditional institutions, such as the press and public education. Religion, too.

Under these conditions, selection pressures mount for individuals who can create certainty and order.4/

Charismatic authority only arises under certain conditions, particularly in times of high uncertainty or turbulent times. We have been observing the rapid decline of the post-WWII historical epoch. Its end is being accelerated by the death of boomers and rapid tech change and the collapse of…3/

A Weberian ideal type is not a generalization, it is an ideal representation of a phenomenon, such as charismatic authority as noted above. Such representations carve out the conditions necessary for the phenomenon to occur, meaning there is no claim about universalism being made.2/

This is where traditional science breaks down. Science typically deals with empirical regularities. One-off events are difficult to understand under such an approach because they are unique and impossible to reproduce. They yield no generalizations.1/

See chapters 3 & 4 in Mechanistic Criminology.

It’s fun. It’s processual. It focuses on deviance and how definitions of it change over time as a result of social conflicts. It’s really accessible, like most of Howie Becker’s works.

If by ‘best’ you mean most scientific, Retrofit Social Learning Theory. It’s the only theory that is precisely stated enough to possibly be falsified.

My favorite theory, though, Becker’s Labeling Theory.

Roadhouse.

It could also be a background to a Jack Handy “Deep Thoughts”:)

I can imagine the late nite at with song titles scrolling!

In this paper, we show how empirical tests of disorganization theory lack standardized operationalizations of key constructs. This paper provides initial evidence that weaknesses in theory can potentially influence false-positive research results independently of traditional methodological concerns.

We are working on setting up a list of guests now! I’ll keep you posted.

The fallacy of expertise is in abundance on social media. Thanks for the reminder!

Congrats on the book and the attention it is getting!