I love this scene from Veep bsky.app/profile/krom...

By proportion of the total vote, this race is even closer than when Lisa Herbold beat Shannon Braddock by 39 votes in 2015. That was 0.1% of the vote separating them; this one is currently .03% of the vote.

The 6,400 comes from King County and doesn't include challenged ballots, so it could go up a bit.

Meanwhile, Polymarket now gives Wilson 96% odds to be mayor. polymarket.com/event/seattl...

I’m just going by what they’re telling me to my face. It’s possible they have outdated information though.

I will hedge a little bit: Every time KC Elections has told me a number, the actual number counted that day has been higher. We'll see.

I’d guess Wilson because young people’s ballots have a disproportionate number of issues. But I don’t think it’s ever really mattered this much before so hard to say

Although now that I've said that, I see Gonzalez got 71% of Tuesday's vote in 2021 lol. The caveat being that was just 1,200 ballots.

Got it. I'd still have a hard time declaring anything because I think that last 10,000 is not inherently likely to have any particular lean. I think it's a hodgepodge of ballots with issues, that needed closer scrutiny or got caught in the mail somewhere.

You mean for today?

It tells me that Harrell is winning people who either didn't vote or voted for a third candidate in the primary by a much wider margin than she is, which was exactly their strategy. But she also had a cushion, so could afford to lose some. We'll see if she lost too many.

It seems decently likely to me that the "cured" ballots will decide the race.

This is such a tight race that if Friday was Wilson's peak, she'll lose. But like I said, KC Elections seems to be a little behind where they were in 2021.

Thanks

It's not going to be exactly 45,000 ballots though. This is the most undecided race of all time.

They just sent out a message to reporters. I don't think that will include challenged ballots.

Yes. 120K countywide.

King County just clarified they have 45,000 left

That said, there were more ballots in this drop -- 57,000 -- than initially forecast and therefore fewer on Monday -- 45,000. I genuinely think this could be decided by a hundred votes.