Lars Kreckel
@kreckellars.bsky.social
20+ years in macro markets, buy-side & sell-side, still trying to make sense of it all
My 3 main takeaways:
- Buy-side sentiment stays bullish, but without pushing to new highs
- The “Buy Europe” theme is losing steam
- Gold and Euro both close to maximum bullishness
All the Charts & Analysis at Sentiment-Matters
- Buy-side sentiment stays bullish, but without pushing to new highs
- The “Buy Europe” theme is losing steam
- Gold and Euro both close to maximum bullishness
All the Charts & Analysis at Sentiment-Matters
September 15, 2025 at 10:35 AM
My 3 main takeaways:
- Buy-side sentiment stays bullish, but without pushing to new highs
- The “Buy Europe” theme is losing steam
- Gold and Euro both close to maximum bullishness
All the Charts & Analysis at Sentiment-Matters
- Buy-side sentiment stays bullish, but without pushing to new highs
- The “Buy Europe” theme is losing steam
- Gold and Euro both close to maximum bullishness
All the Charts & Analysis at Sentiment-Matters
Since the heydays of the euro crisis
March 5, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Since the heydays of the euro crisis
And will Treasuries stay the risk free rate?
March 4, 2025 at 2:38 PM
And will Treasuries stay the risk free rate?
- Current message: Surprisingly, no signs of extreme bullishness in the data; non-commercial positions are net short.
December 12, 2024 at 4:00 PM
- Current message: Surprisingly, no signs of extreme bullishness in the data; non-commercial positions are net short.
- The bad: Overall, few reliable signals, limited history, and inconsistent performance.
- The future: CFTC data may cover the wrong type of investor, but this can change as crypto matures.
- The future: CFTC data may cover the wrong type of investor, but this can change as crypto matures.
December 12, 2024 at 4:00 PM
- The bad: Overall, few reliable signals, limited history, and inconsistent performance.
- The future: CFTC data may cover the wrong type of investor, but this can change as crypto matures.
- The future: CFTC data may cover the wrong type of investor, but this can change as crypto matures.
- What is it: Similar to my FX Sentiment Heatmap, I analyse CFTC positioning data for Bitcoin across investor groups, including net long positions and their percentage of open interest.
- The good: Speculative net long positions have occasionally acted as contrarian indicators.
- The good: Speculative net long positions have occasionally acted as contrarian indicators.
December 12, 2024 at 4:00 PM
- What is it: Similar to my FX Sentiment Heatmap, I analyse CFTC positioning data for Bitcoin across investor groups, including net long positions and their percentage of open interest.
- The good: Speculative net long positions have occasionally acted as contrarian indicators.
- The good: Speculative net long positions have occasionally acted as contrarian indicators.
You supposed to buy low, sell high 😂
December 11, 2024 at 6:50 PM
You supposed to buy low, sell high 😂
Not one of my TopTier indicators, but it has a decent track record. Equities have performed worst when consumers have been most bullish.
December 10, 2024 at 3:00 PM
Not one of my TopTier indicators, but it has a decent track record. Equities have performed worst when consumers have been most bullish.
The base line for sell-side 12 months index targets is 10%, which is exactly where these are at. So average bullishness.
November 28, 2024 at 9:22 AM
The base line for sell-side 12 months index targets is 10%, which is exactly where these are at. So average bullishness.