But I am not sure to what extent people voted purely based on fear of what would happen if Milei lost. Fear may have played a role, but only to the extent the opposition did not present a credible alternative plan.

It has kept the overvalued exchange rate afloat and prevented a major currency run, so in that sense yes.

But again, Peronism has made no clear alternative economic proposition that includes inflation control, so...

Inflation control has been a huge factor in my view but this has been achieved at an unsustainable macro programme (keeping the peso overvalued). Unless the US Treasury is keen to finance that in the longer run, it is unlikely to last.

That said again, the general trend is that incumbent governments tend to lose the mid-term elections, so the result is incredibly good for them.

That said, one must always take a nuanced position when it comes to electoral trends in Argentina, given the volatile economic situation that has been enduring for decades now. Macri also won the mid-term elections and lost the presidential election 2 years later by 18 percentage points.

... is still playing a role in determining people's votes.

In my view, there are many ways to explain the result but the main ones are the lack of unity and a coherent alternative programme within Peronism (especially in terms of economic policy), compounded by the memory of Alberto Fernandez's bad government, which...

Honestly, even the government is surprised with the results. I think the general expectation (including mine) was that they would be 5-8 percentage points below.

www.linkedin.com/pulse/rescue...

Drawing upon all of that, I have written on how access to the globall financial safety net intersects with questions of sovereign solvency in the post–Bretton Woods era.

academic.oup.com/jiel/article...

There is a lot written on the proliferation of swap lines since the 2008 global financial crisis, although in fact they originated in the 1960s to support the Eurodollar market. Perry Mehrling’s work on the global swap network is particularly popular.

www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1...

The dollarisation plan is longer-term and seems to be dormant for now. The pressing issue is to preserve the over-valued exchange rate until the mid-term election in late October, with practically no dollars left in the reserves apart from IMF resources.

📝 Deadline to submit abstracts: 30 June 2025
📍 Event dates (online): 19-20 September 2025
📚 Accepted papers may be invited for publication in JIEL and are eligible for the SIEL/JIEL/OUP Prize.

Further information and application form here: lnkd.in/d2JFE4yw

... connect with a fantastic network working at the intersections of trade, investment, finance, tax, labour, and more.

I am happy to answer questions about the event, especially from Latin American scholars, whose presence in JIEL remains underrepresented. Do not hesitate to get in touch!

🗓 21 May 11am-12pm (BST)
📍 Boardroom, Liberty Building, University of Leeds (and online)
🔗 Please register here, indicating whether you plan to attend in person or online: www.tickettailor.com/events/schoo...

Regardless of any religious background, I hope we can all honour his memory by upholding these values.