Yet, as the most recent 2024 elections have shown, the crisis for the ruling coalition has already kicked in: with the decline of “rapidly depopulating” municipalities’ electorate, their continuing support for LDP may no longer be enough to secure LDP’s nationwide hegemony.

9/9

In a nutshell, the combined effects of high aging rates, ongoing interregional redistribution, and relatively stable socio-spatial boundaries preserve the electoral status-quo in favor of the incumbent LDP.

8/n

“Electoral stability” is encapsulated by (1) high voter turnout, (2) strong support for the LDP (2), and (3) low support for the so-called “third parties”.

7/n

We find that, despite the persisting socio-economic decline of “rapidly depopulating” municipalities, the ones that remained intact throughout the mid-2000s' merger wave nevertheless display consistent “electoral stability”.

6/n

𝐾𝑎𝑠𝑜 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑘𝑖 are known for high shares of the elderly and relatively weak economic standing, being therefore eligible for additional fiscal support.

5/n

Based on municipal-level data across four general elections between 2012 and 2021, we analyze electoral behavior in municipalities designated as “rapidly depopulating” (𝑘𝑎𝑠𝑜 𝑐ℎ𝑖𝑖𝑘𝑖). 

4/n

We argue that Japan 🗾 constitutes a key case to advance our understanding of the relationship between regional decline and electoral behavior.

3/n

Regional decline has been linked to the rise of anti-establishment parties and politicians. The case of Japan 🗾 challenges this notion. In fact, Japan’s rapidly shrinking rural areas have remained strongholds of the long-term governing party, the LDP.

2/n