Our latest MRP. This time, each seat based on voters self reported ideology. This neatly illustrates why QLD is politically different to Victoria. More detail to follow.

Why the polls are what they are. Exhibit A.

Similar statistics are likely to be found in other states as well, underscoring a nationwide crisis of financial strain. The political consequences of this level of economic pain, unprecedented in recent decades, are inevitable and profound.

Labor has tried being friends to all sides. But it has found itself with no friends. My latest contribution in the Financial Review.

www.afr.com/politics/fed...

I joined the ABC News daily podcast to explore the parallels between Trump’s victory and Australian politics. In short, we’re likely to see similar expressions of discontent from low-income communities at the ballot box.

www.abc.net.au/listen/progr...

1/ This essay is essential reading for anyone preparing for the upcoming federal election. The political center of gravity in Australia has shifted back to the southern states. Previously, Queensland was the key swing state, but that dynamic has changed.

Labor MP gets sanctioned by Meta for promoting school students and their families receiving state government support. Schools saving bonus for every student.

Meta are a bunch of freaks.

There is a new electoral boss in town and they don’t buy politics like baby boomers.

www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11...

The By - election in the Victorian State Seat of Prahran will be super telling.

1. Greens arresting their stagnate and declining vote.
2. Labor proving that they can counter the pending loss of outer urban seats with seats like this.
3. Liberals proving they have a pulse in this part of Melbourne

They are not becoming more conservative as they age. They are more interested in seeing the system torn down. Housing is the cause.

www.abc.net.au/news/2024-11...

Why I empathise with asylum seekers.

Our latest poll in the Daily Telegraph shows both major parties locked at 50% two-party preferred.

Labor’s primary vote has stabilised, primarily due to strong support in inner and middle urban electorates. However, significant challenges remain. Outer suburbs, regions and diverse communities.

Worth a listen. There are 3 classes across western democracies, the tension between the 3 matter and differ slightly between countries.

podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/o...

Tune into ABC RN drive at 5pm (AEDT). Jonathan Pearlman and I will join be discussing the US elections, Greens electoral challenges and federal politics with Andy Park.

Jacinta Allan’s call to action, aiming to be the Premier who gets Millennials into home ownership, seems to have resonated quickly. Thurs Resolve poll.

Victorian Labor's policy on encouraging more townhouses has the support of 57% of Victorians surveyed. More telling? 48% Coalition voters. 1/

The Australian Indian diaspora is a cultural, political, and economic game-changer. Some in the private sector and media fully recognise their influence and actively engage with this hugely impactful demographic.

I think this front page is a first in Australia and it's great to see.

Worth getting a hold of this paper from NLM. The move of low income/working class to the Right in the US is driven by culture. The fix? The economy (stupid).

Education driving Right/Left flips electorally.

Why Labor MPs in once safe seats are sitting on time bombs. The Liberals had theirs detonate in 2022. Question is, how long before Labor experiences the same. I would say, it could be a soon as two electoral cycles away.

1/

I will be posting polling and political content on this platform as much as X going forward.