Odd response. I'm not a Reform supporter, I've only ever voted Labour/Lib/Green, just pointing out what you're saying is factually incorrect. By a long way.

This is outright wrong. Reform are currently averaging 30%, nearly double UKIP at their peak.

The polling shows Ed would lose to Cooper, Rayner or (narrowly) Streeting. Contrary to popular opinion the members don't fancy him back as leader.

yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Thanks, good counterexample!

Sure but regardless of the methodology I think it's going to be more accurate for people like Farage or Corbyn who are well-known and well understood, compared to examples like CUK where people don't know much about them. Obviously still lots of uncertainty though.

Isn't it slightly different when the public know a lot about the people involved? For example this 2022 poll about how people would vote if a Farage-led anti-immigration party existed wasn't that far off.

www.moreincommon.org.uk/blog/nigel-f...

Okay well maybe Forest, they won the league in 1978 and the first division in 1998?

Nope. Burnley, Portsmouth, Man City, Newcastle, Huddersfield, Forest... probably more as well.