Bottom water temperatures across the Northeast US continental shelf have been warming, with changes in regional currents since ~2008 rapidly intensifying this trend. In the time since, cod stock centers of gravity have moved northeast and cod spatial ranges have condensed, especially for large cod.

Model results indicated strong relationships between cod presence/absence and depth and bottom temperature. While the spatial strata underpinning design-based indices of abundance are often defined to have relatively homogeneous depths, they do not yet consider bottom temperature.

I've been developing these models for three size classes of cod (small: under 40 cm TL; medium: 40-70 cm TL; large: over 70 cm TL) at seasonal time steps (Spring: March-August; Fall: September-February) 1982-2021. I'm mostly interested in size-specific habitat associations and distribution shifts.

The approach--Vector Autoregressive SpatioTemporal (VAST) modeling--has the advantage of integrating these data to estimate density in areas with limited observations. Knowing both density and spatial area, you can then derive indices of relative abundance.

Improved knowledge of Atlantic cod biological stock structure in US and adjacent Canadian waters has led to a new spatial management framework. Recently, I've been working on spatiotemporal models of cod distribution built on a suite of fishery-independent surveys and environmental covariates.

A triumphant return to form, both for Fall Out Boy and my listening habits