Kingston Reif
@kingstonareif.bsky.social
Senior International/Defense researcher at the RAND Corporation. Former DASD for Threat Reduction and Arms Control + Arms Control Association. Wisconsin sports fanatic. Personal account.
"China believes these new capabilities offset existing U.S. and allies missile defense systems, which may affect their nuclear strike calculus, especially if state survival is at risk." www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
November 7, 2025 at 2:24 AM
"China believes these new capabilities offset existing U.S. and allies missile defense systems, which may affect their nuclear strike calculus, especially if state survival is at risk." www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/do...
POTUS earlier this week: www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
October 30, 2025 at 2:45 AM
POTUS earlier this week: www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/1...
Perhaps we will learn more soon about what kind of testing POTUS is ordering. Meanwhile, a POTUS response to a failed Skyfall test during his 1st term👇
October 30, 2025 at 2:35 AM
Perhaps we will learn more soon about what kind of testing POTUS is ordering. Meanwhile, a POTUS response to a failed Skyfall test during his 1st term👇
-Putin has been touting tests of Skyfall and Poseidon this week. (The tests were of nuke-powered, nuke delivery systems-not live warhead detonations)
-The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job.
-The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.
-The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job.
-The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.
October 30, 2025 at 2:07 AM
-Putin has been touting tests of Skyfall and Poseidon this week. (The tests were of nuke-powered, nuke delivery systems-not live warhead detonations)
-The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job.
-The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.
-The Dept of War isnt responsible for nuke explosive testing. Thats DoEs job.
-The "renovation of existing weapons" continues.
POTUS: "I think we’re going to make a deal on maybe even nuclear" thehill.com/homenews/adm...
October 24, 2025 at 1:30 AM
POTUS: "I think we’re going to make a deal on maybe even nuclear" thehill.com/homenews/adm...
"Air Force general pledges to ‘get Sentinel done,’ expects Milestone B in 2027" breakingdefense.com/2025/09/air-...
September 26, 2025 at 2:24 AM
"Air Force general pledges to ‘get Sentinel done,’ expects Milestone B in 2027" breakingdefense.com/2025/09/air-...
September 23, 2025 at 1:50 AM
"Essentially, DOD determined that the root causes of the Sentinel program’s cost growth were
• an unrealistic delivery schedule,
• ineffective systems engineering and incomplete basic system design, and
• an atrophied ICBM industrial base."
• an unrealistic delivery schedule,
• ineffective systems engineering and incomplete basic system design, and
• an atrophied ICBM industrial base."
September 15, 2025 at 2:26 AM
"Essentially, DOD determined that the root causes of the Sentinel program’s cost growth were
• an unrealistic delivery schedule,
• ineffective systems engineering and incomplete basic system design, and
• an atrophied ICBM industrial base."
• an unrealistic delivery schedule,
• ineffective systems engineering and incomplete basic system design, and
• an atrophied ICBM industrial base."
-Minuteman III "performing well"
-"enough available assets to sustain the required ICBMs on alert to 2050, but there are sustainment risks"
-No "risk management plan for the transition including risks resulting from prolonged operation of Minuteman III"
-"enough available assets to sustain the required ICBMs on alert to 2050, but there are sustainment risks"
-No "risk management plan for the transition including risks resulting from prolonged operation of Minuteman III"
September 15, 2025 at 2:24 AM
-Minuteman III "performing well"
-"enough available assets to sustain the required ICBMs on alert to 2050, but there are sustainment risks"
-No "risk management plan for the transition including risks resulting from prolonged operation of Minuteman III"
-"enough available assets to sustain the required ICBMs on alert to 2050, but there are sustainment risks"
-No "risk management plan for the transition including risks resulting from prolonged operation of Minuteman III"
"A system that protects against the full range of aerial threats..could cost $3.6 trillion, and..would fall short of..'100 percent' effectiveness..In contrast, the $175 billion price tag..only affords a much less capable system that is no match for [Russia and China]" www.aei.org/research-pro...
September 15, 2025 at 1:57 AM
"A system that protects against the full range of aerial threats..could cost $3.6 trillion, and..would fall short of..'100 percent' effectiveness..In contrast, the $175 billion price tag..only affords a much less capable system that is no match for [Russia and China]" www.aei.org/research-pro...
August 22, 2025 at 2:40 AM
"After Meeting Putin, Trump Reverts to Land Swaps for Peace in Ukraine" www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/w...
August 16, 2025 at 6:15 PM
"After Meeting Putin, Trump Reverts to Land Swaps for Peace in Ukraine" www.nytimes.com/2025/08/16/w...
"However, the DAF has determined additional time, and effort is required before proceeding with the following Sentinel Town Hall and Public Scoping Meetings." www.afgsc.af.mil/Sentinel-GBSD/
August 13, 2025 at 4:26 AM
"However, the DAF has determined additional time, and effort is required before proceeding with the following Sentinel Town Hall and Public Scoping Meetings." www.afgsc.af.mil/Sentinel-GBSD/
The FY26 budget request for missile defense/defeat:
-$25 billion for Golden Dome
-$13.1 billion for MDA
-$15.2 billion for regional/strategic capabilities outside MDA
-$14.9 billion for advanced tech defeat/left-of-launch
Total: $68.3 billion. +$40.7 billion (!) over FY25.
-$25 billion for Golden Dome
-$13.1 billion for MDA
-$15.2 billion for regional/strategic capabilities outside MDA
-$14.9 billion for advanced tech defeat/left-of-launch
Total: $68.3 billion. +$40.7 billion (!) over FY25.
August 11, 2025 at 12:55 AM
The FY26 budget request for missile defense/defeat:
-$25 billion for Golden Dome
-$13.1 billion for MDA
-$15.2 billion for regional/strategic capabilities outside MDA
-$14.9 billion for advanced tech defeat/left-of-launch
Total: $68.3 billion. +$40.7 billion (!) over FY25.
-$25 billion for Golden Dome
-$13.1 billion for MDA
-$15.2 billion for regional/strategic capabilities outside MDA
-$14.9 billion for advanced tech defeat/left-of-launch
Total: $68.3 billion. +$40.7 billion (!) over FY25.
"Trump’s posturing...no longer rattles Beijing as it once did. As the United States diverts resources toward fanciful efforts to defend its homeland against China’s comparatively low-cost attack capabilities, Beijing effectively strains U.S. resources at little cost to itself."
August 5, 2025 at 4:34 AM
"Trump’s posturing...no longer rattles Beijing as it once did. As the United States diverts resources toward fanciful efforts to defend its homeland against China’s comparatively low-cost attack capabilities, Beijing effectively strains U.S. resources at little cost to itself."
Setting aside the need to level up for a minute... Uploading is possible cause New START didn't require real US force structure changes. Where should the combo of the Ninth Agreed Statement and Section IV of Part III of the protocol rank on the all time greatest arms control provisions list?
August 2, 2025 at 5:32 PM
Setting aside the need to level up for a minute... Uploading is possible cause New START didn't require real US force structure changes. Where should the combo of the Ninth Agreed Statement and Section IV of Part III of the protocol rank on the all time greatest arms control provisions list?
The Strategic Posture Commission made this point too. Agree or disagree, making the role of strategic homeland missile defense the denial of limited attacks regardless of adversary would seem to enable a determination of the amount of defense needed for that purpose. And by extension...
August 2, 2025 at 5:16 PM
The Strategic Posture Commission made this point too. Agree or disagree, making the role of strategic homeland missile defense the denial of limited attacks regardless of adversary would seem to enable a determination of the amount of defense needed for that purpose. And by extension...
"it simply needs a sufficiently large strategic force that can withstand a combined attack and destroy a portion of what Xi and Putin value most." theamericanenterprise.com/american-nuc...
August 2, 2025 at 3:45 PM
"it simply needs a sufficiently large strategic force that can withstand a combined attack and destroy a portion of what Xi and Putin value most." theamericanenterprise.com/american-nuc...
We don't know what kind of "Nuclear Submarines" POTUS means in his post today. SSNs? SSGNs? SSBNs? FWIW POTUS referred in a June post (also responding to Medvedev) to "Nuclear Submarines" and their role in Midnight Hammer. We know it was an SSGN that participated in that mission.
August 1, 2025 at 8:17 PM
We don't know what kind of "Nuclear Submarines" POTUS means in his post today. SSNs? SSGNs? SSBNs? FWIW POTUS referred in a June post (also responding to Medvedev) to "Nuclear Submarines" and their role in Midnight Hammer. We know it was an SSGN that participated in that mission.
"The program of record...is already suffering delays and cost overruns: US officials and lawmakers need to keep their eye on that prize and not allow themselves to be distracted by new nuclear requirements that will only exacerbate the problems that already exist." thebulletin.org/2025/07/nucl...
August 1, 2025 at 2:34 AM
"The program of record...is already suffering delays and cost overruns: US officials and lawmakers need to keep their eye on that prize and not allow themselves to be distracted by new nuclear requirements that will only exacerbate the problems that already exist." thebulletin.org/2025/07/nucl...
"The design philosophy for the B-21 was not to make huge generational leap, but to perfect what was learned on the B-2, advance some of the capabilities it had, and make it a more robust and reliable platform, Bussiere said." www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-gl...
July 31, 2025 at 2:17 AM
"The design philosophy for the B-21 was not to make huge generational leap, but to perfect what was learned on the B-2, advance some of the capabilities it had, and make it a more robust and reliable platform, Bussiere said." www.airandspaceforces.com/air-force-gl...
"Alliances have long focused on nuclear and high-end conventional deterrence, but they could be recentered on economic and technological cooperation." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
July 30, 2025 at 3:20 AM
"Alliances have long focused on nuclear and high-end conventional deterrence, but they could be recentered on economic and technological cooperation." www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
Per the FY26 request, an updated Navy cost estimate and CAPE independent cost estimate are in the works.
GAO indicated earlier this year the “revised cost estimate expected to be completed in 2025 will include increased total acquisition costs.” www.gao.gov/assets/gao-2... (3/n)
GAO indicated earlier this year the “revised cost estimate expected to be completed in 2025 will include increased total acquisition costs.” www.gao.gov/assets/gao-2... (3/n)
July 27, 2025 at 3:43 AM
Per the FY26 request, an updated Navy cost estimate and CAPE independent cost estimate are in the works.
GAO indicated earlier this year the “revised cost estimate expected to be completed in 2025 will include increased total acquisition costs.” www.gao.gov/assets/gao-2... (3/n)
GAO indicated earlier this year the “revised cost estimate expected to be completed in 2025 will include increased total acquisition costs.” www.gao.gov/assets/gao-2... (3/n)
FY25 1st boat (826) estimate: 15.179 billion (then year dollars)
FY26 826 estimate: $16.121 billion (+6.2%)
FY 25 2nd boat (827): 9.283 billion
FY26 827: $10.688 billion (+15%)
FY 25 3rd boat (828): $8.755 billion
FY26 828: $10.543 billion (+20%) (2/n)
FY26 826 estimate: $16.121 billion (+6.2%)
FY 25 2nd boat (827): 9.283 billion
FY26 827: $10.688 billion (+15%)
FY 25 3rd boat (828): $8.755 billion
FY26 828: $10.543 billion (+20%) (2/n)
July 27, 2025 at 3:42 AM
FY25 1st boat (826) estimate: 15.179 billion (then year dollars)
FY26 826 estimate: $16.121 billion (+6.2%)
FY 25 2nd boat (827): 9.283 billion
FY26 827: $10.688 billion (+15%)
FY 25 3rd boat (828): $8.755 billion
FY26 828: $10.543 billion (+20%) (2/n)
FY26 826 estimate: $16.121 billion (+6.2%)
FY 25 2nd boat (827): 9.283 billion
FY26 827: $10.688 billion (+15%)
FY 25 3rd boat (828): $8.755 billion
FY26 828: $10.543 billion (+20%) (2/n)
"The government plans to socialize this objective architecture as it is developed within the next 60 days." www.defense.gov/News/Release...
July 24, 2025 at 4:01 AM
"The government plans to socialize this objective architecture as it is developed within the next 60 days." www.defense.gov/News/Release...