Thanks!

Thank you!

Thanks Ben!

Thanks Bobby!

Thanks Sarah!

Thanks Aaron!

Thanks Arin!

Very cool!

Ugh, thanks

Full piece here equitablegrowth.org/tariffs-pose...

There’s so much uncertainty that it’s impossible to say which of these scenarios, if any, will ultimately come to pass. But I think being concrete about what follows from reasonable changes to labor market dynamics is helpful.

For the next three years, an optimistic tariff-advocate scenario looks a lot like that 2001-style recession. That’s an important point: the transition advocates mostly want to gloss over may in fact be a recession, which research suggests would have long-term consequences.

Don’t want to ignore advocates for aggressive tariffs who think the short-term pain associated w adjusting to them will be outweighed by the longer-term gains associated w returning production to the US, so consider an optimistic scenario: hiring not too low, layoffs not too high

But there’s no reason firms’ adjustments would have to stop at modest. Slower hiring and faster layoffs could easily spiral into a recession, even before the resolution of tariff uncertainty renders some businesses non-viable. Even a fairly mild recession could drive UR to ~6%.

Tariffs pose obvious risks. Even just the uncertainty about what they’ll be could slow hiring and/or increase layoffs. Even modest adjustments to tariffs could push the unemployment rate several tenths above baseline.