- I am passionate about modeling, stats, and methods. I started a blog with all kinds of tutorials! (dibsmethodsmeetings.github.io)

- can be spotted riding a purple bike around London

and as promised, here are my cats who are more famous than me (momotheflyingcat on IG)

Finally, model comparisons revealed that only one existing model (the Necessity-Sufficiency model) could predict both causal judgments and confidence. These results were robust to different methods of modeling confidence from counterfactual models

Next, relying on ideas from research on metacognition, we demonstrated that popular counterfactual models of causal judgment made a range of predictions about confidence, even if their predictions of causal judgments were similar

Just like causal judgments, confidence in causal judgments exhibited small but clear effects of normality! In the situations where C and A are both necessary for E, people give higher causal judgments of C and are more confident when C is rare but A is common