Ken
@kensharpetwo.bsky.social
Professional account | Social Media Manager of Sharpe Two
Reposted by Ken
The Intuition: This is a mismatch. If Vol is truly 25 now, it is unlikely to crash to 12 next month. If the future is truly calm (12), the current 25 is likely unsustainable. The Trade: You Sell Spot Vol and Buy Forward Vol.
February 12, 2026 at 6:30 PM
The Intuition: This is a mismatch. If Vol is truly 25 now, it is unlikely to crash to 12 next month. If the future is truly calm (12), the current 25 is likely unsustainable. The Trade: You Sell Spot Vol and Buy Forward Vol.
Reposted by Ken
Here is the math: Forward vol is the expected volatility between two future dates (e.g., between day 30 and 60). Sometimes, the market gets ahead of itself. You might see Spot Vol (VIX) at 25, but the math shows the market expects volatility between days 30-60 to be only 12.
February 12, 2026 at 6:30 PM
Here is the math: Forward vol is the expected volatility between two future dates (e.g., between day 30 and 60). Sometimes, the market gets ahead of itself. You might see Spot Vol (VIX) at 25, but the math shows the market expects volatility between days 30-60 to be only 12.
Reposted by Ken
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February 12, 2026 at 6:30 PM
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Reposted by Ken
⚠️ A warning: Do not try the reverse (Buying Spot/Selling Forward) just because the market is in steep Contango. That is the equivalent of trying to time a vol spike. "Many people die every year on this hill." It is extremely hard and not recommended.
February 12, 2026 at 6:30 PM
⚠️ A warning: Do not try the reverse (Buying Spot/Selling Forward) just because the market is in steep Contango. That is the equivalent of trying to time a vol spike. "Many people die every year on this hill." It is extremely hard and not recommended.
Reposted by Ken
The "Spot vs. Forward" Mismatch
Most traders look at the volatility surface and just see Backwardation (fear) or Contango (calm). But the real alpha comes from comparing Spot Volatility against Forward Volatility.
Most traders look at the volatility surface and just see Backwardation (fear) or Contango (calm). But the real alpha comes from comparing Spot Volatility against Forward Volatility.
February 12, 2026 at 6:30 PM
The "Spot vs. Forward" Mismatch
Most traders look at the volatility surface and just see Backwardation (fear) or Contango (calm). But the real alpha comes from comparing Spot Volatility against Forward Volatility.
Most traders look at the volatility surface and just see Backwardation (fear) or Contango (calm). But the real alpha comes from comparing Spot Volatility against Forward Volatility.
Reposted by Ken
$SPY: 9-day VRP SHORT at 56%. But 30-day RV LONG at 88% -- model expects realized vol to rise. Sell vol if you want, but keep duration short.
February 12, 2026 at 2:00 PM
$SPY: 9-day VRP SHORT at 56%. But 30-day RV LONG at 88% -- model expects realized vol to rise. Sell vol if you want, but keep duration short.
Reposted by Ken
Holding IS a continuous roll. Every day you don't close, you're re-entering at today's price. Would you open this exact trade right now?
February 12, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Holding IS a continuous roll. Every day you don't close, you're re-entering at today's price. Would you open this exact trade right now?
Reposted by Ken
Stop saying you "rolled." You booked a loss and opened a new trade. Two decisions, not one. The roll is a story you tell yourself.
February 12, 2026 at 2:00 PM
Stop saying you "rolled." You booked a loss and opened a new trade. Two decisions, not one. The roll is a story you tell yourself.
Reposted by Ken
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February 11, 2026 at 6:00 PM
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Reposted by Ken
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February 11, 2026 at 6:00 PM
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Reposted by Ken
The Opportunity: While the crowd flees, we are selling puts on big tech. The market is pricing in risk without asking questions—which usually leaves the answers (and the profits) for those willing to take the other side.
#SharpeTwo #OptionsTrading #QuantTrading #Volatility
#SharpeTwo #OptionsTrading #QuantTrading #Volatility
February 11, 2026 at 6:00 PM
The Opportunity: While the crowd flees, we are selling puts on big tech. The market is pricing in risk without asking questions—which usually leaves the answers (and the profits) for those willing to take the other side.
#SharpeTwo #OptionsTrading #QuantTrading #Volatility
#SharpeTwo #OptionsTrading #QuantTrading #Volatility
Reposted by Ken
We view this sell-off with "amusement and consternation." Do we really think Amazon is about to be disrupted by kids coding with LLMs? Unlikely.
February 11, 2026 at 6:00 PM
We view this sell-off with "amusement and consternation." Do we really think Amazon is about to be disrupted by kids coding with LLMs? Unlikely.
Reposted by Ken
The data is real: 4% of GitHub commits are now AI-co-authored. But the market reaction looks like panic. Investors are throwing out high-moat companies (like Amazon) along with the vulnerable ones.
February 11, 2026 at 6:00 PM
The data is real: 4% of GitHub commits are now AI-co-authored. But the market reaction looks like panic. Investors are throwing out high-moat companies (like Amazon) along with the vulnerable ones.
Reposted by Ken
Tech is bleeding. Companies like CRM dropped 11% this week on fears of the "Claude Code" moment—the idea that "Agentic as a Service" (AaaS) will disrupt traditional SaaS models.
February 11, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Tech is bleeding. Companies like CRM dropped 11% this week on fears of the "Claude Code" moment—the idea that "Agentic as a Service" (AaaS) will disrupt traditional SaaS models.
Reposted by Ken
Is Tech dead? The market thinks AI Agents are about to kill SaaS. We think the market is wrong.
February 11, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Is Tech dead? The market thinks AI Agents are about to kill SaaS. We think the market is wrong.
Reposted by Ken
Everyone is rushing to buy insurance for a crash that hasn't happened. Here is how to profit from their fear.
February 11, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Everyone is rushing to buy insurance for a crash that hasn't happened. Here is how to profit from their fear.
Reposted by Ken
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February 11, 2026 at 2:30 PM
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Reposted by Ken
Hedge smartly: If you need protection, don't overpay for long-dated puts. Instead, look at 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options. They are currently a cheap way to cap risk against surprise headlines without dragging down your portfolio.
February 11, 2026 at 2:30 PM
Hedge smartly: If you need protection, don't overpay for long-dated puts. Instead, look at 0DTE (Zero Days to Expiration) options. They are currently a cheap way to cap risk against surprise headlines without dragging down your portfolio.
Reposted by Ken
We bet on the latter. The market is "piling on Band-Aids" for a wound that isn't bleeding yet. The play? Sell the overpriced Band-Aids (long-dated volatility).
February 11, 2026 at 2:30 PM
We bet on the latter. The market is "piling on Band-Aids" for a wound that isn't bleeding yet. The play? Sell the overpriced Band-Aids (long-dated volatility).
Reposted by Ken
The bellwether to watch is XLF (Financials). Implied volatility here is in the 75th percentile. Two scenarios exist: either banks are on the verge of a total collapse, or insurance is massively overpriced.
February 11, 2026 at 2:30 PM
The bellwether to watch is XLF (Financials). Implied volatility here is in the 75th percentile. Two scenarios exist: either banks are on the verge of a total collapse, or insurance is massively overpriced.
Reposted by Ken
The Variance Risk Premium (VRP) is back. Because the market is terrified, implied volatility is trading significantly higher than realized volatility. You can currently extract ~6 points of VRP from US equities.
February 11, 2026 at 2:30 PM
The Variance Risk Premium (VRP) is back. Because the market is terrified, implied volatility is trading significantly higher than realized volatility. You can currently extract ~6 points of VRP from US equities.