An incredible day! I officially have a deal for my first book.

I write to inform and empower, to convince Americans that the best economy in US history is ahead of us, and we can build it.

Excited and grateful for this opportunity!!! Thank you MBW, Merry, and Norton!

That data from the Kaiser Family Foundation is from 2021, but CPI data shows medical care services have increase 9.2% since then, so this is the same chart, but all the per enrollee spending is boosted 10%.

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Medicaid provides health insurance to 77 million people. However, those 77 million people vary A LOT in how much health care they consume.

Here's annual per-enrollee Medicaid spending based on the type of enrollee vs OBBBA bonus to the richest 10%.

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I'm so glad you asked!

Supplemental Nutrition Assistance aka food stamps helps low-income households maintain minimum nutrition. The size of the benefit varies by the number of people in the household.

Here's the average SNAP benefit by household size vs OBBBA bonus to the richest 10%.

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As an anchor, here's the distributional analysis from the CBO. It shows how much households will get annually from the bill, based on their household ranked income.

(Basically, they line up all households in the US from poorest to richest and put them into ten, equal-sized groups.)

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Q: The Department of Government Efficiency is reassigning highly paid, highly trained workers to customer service positions, because the customer service staff was let go or pressured into resigning. Why are my Social Security tax dollars being spent this way?

Q: The Department of Government Efficiency is spreading misinformation and lies about the federal government's actions because they don't understand the data they are looking at. Do you support that they have continued access to this data?

Q: Did temporary workers from the Department of Government Efficiency violate a court order and continue to access my private data at the Social Security Administration?

Q: The acting administrator of SSA tcancelled federal contracts going to Maine for political reasons. Is there no check that federal money for citizen services is protected from the president being mad at a governor?

Clear admission from the White House that tariffs are not meant to increase manufacturing but just a negotiating tactic. That’s using the success of American businesses and the jobs of American workers as leverage.

Ohhhhh girlies look they come in different colors

I did a full coffee spittake looking at the GDPNow forecast from the Atlanta Fed. I'm not as familiar with it, but good god did the graph catch me off guard.

Anyone else worried?

www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...

New from the CBO, updates on extending the 2017 expiring tax provisions. This extension will cost $4-$5 trillion (with a T) over ten years.

Latest from CBO today, the extension won't increase the economy, mainly because it'll be financed through public borrowing.

That affects workers of all ages in myriad ways, but I brought it up to call out the rough start young workers today had. Here's the deficit aligned with ages:

I'd argue the 1983 cohort had it the worst, they were in jobs deficit most of their 20s.

We can stack those divots together and compare them as a percentage change timed to the start of a recession. It gives a clear sense of each recession's depth in the labor market:

A jobs deficit is when the economy is underwater on jobs compared to a prior period. This happens in recessions and their recoveries. If you look at the total number of jobs in the economy, it's the periodic divots in this line:

My first post is to brag!

I testified yesterday in JEC about labor supply and fertility in the US. I championed: childcare, paid leave, right to work part time, right to flex arrangements, paid sick days, zero OOP expenses for natal care, and full coverage of assisted reproduction (IVF).