Kathleen Cole
@kcolempls.bsky.social
political scientist, organizer, knitter, animal rescue, fan of early bedtimes. Currently: Transformative Justice Alliance; formerly: People Over Prosecution, Recall Freeman, MN for Warren.
His approval numbers are dismal. Something like only 30% in the last polling I saw, if I remember correctly.
November 10, 2025 at 4:08 AM
His approval numbers are dismal. Something like only 30% in the last polling I saw, if I remember correctly.
Once we have the data, I’ll put together a visualization to illustrate the shape of the electorate and share it out
November 10, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Once we have the data, I’ll put together a visualization to illustrate the shape of the electorate and share it out
Maybe we are using the word ceiling differently? We won’t know for sure until the full vote data is released. But there’s nothing I’ve seen so far that would indicate Fateh had a higher ceiling, the way I am using the term. Will be nice to have the data to answer that question!
November 10, 2025 at 12:29 AM
Maybe we are using the word ceiling differently? We won’t know for sure until the full vote data is released. But there’s nothing I’ve seen so far that would indicate Fateh had a higher ceiling, the way I am using the term. Will be nice to have the data to answer that question!
I too do not like it! I’m not saying this because I’m stoked about it. I’m saying this because Jacob is a fucking travesty and we can’t afford to keep making the same mistakes over and over.
November 10, 2025 at 12:13 AM
I too do not like it! I’m not saying this because I’m stoked about it. I’m saying this because Jacob is a fucking travesty and we can’t afford to keep making the same mistakes over and over.
Y’all definitely had more juice! Not disputing that at all! You had an excellent ground game, convention program, engaged base! All of that is great! And it doesn’t change the electoral math. That’s what I am trying to get people to understand.
November 10, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Y’all definitely had more juice! Not disputing that at all! You had an excellent ground game, convention program, engaged base! All of that is great! And it doesn’t change the electoral math. That’s what I am trying to get people to understand.
It’s super frustrating to me as someone who studies and teaches this shit for a living to consistently read people saying things that misunderstand how these institutions and the electorate actually interact to explain what happened.
November 10, 2025 at 12:09 AM
It’s super frustrating to me as someone who studies and teaches this shit for a living to consistently read people saying things that misunderstand how these institutions and the electorate actually interact to explain what happened.
I’m sorry it feels like an attack. That’s not my intention! My intention is to help people understand the institutions don’t work they way folks think they do if we keep putting the majority of resources into a candidate with a low ceiling we will keep getting the worst option.
November 10, 2025 at 12:09 AM
I’m sorry it feels like an attack. That’s not my intention! My intention is to help people understand the institutions don’t work they way folks think they do if we keep putting the majority of resources into a candidate with a low ceiling we will keep getting the worst option.
Fateh had an excellent ground game! He was great at raising money from his base! The electoral math makes him have a low ceiling in independent of those things. It doesn’t matter how strong your ground game is if there aren’t enough voters willing to join you coalition.
November 9, 2025 at 11:59 PM
Fateh had an excellent ground game! He was great at raising money from his base! The electoral math makes him have a low ceiling in independent of those things. It doesn’t matter how strong your ground game is if there aren’t enough voters willing to join you coalition.
Thank you. Being told my academic expertise is “just vibes” is pretty 🙄.
November 9, 2025 at 10:33 PM
Thank you. Being told my academic expertise is “just vibes” is pretty 🙄.
Yeah, the mathematical reality sucks. I definitely wish it weren’t this way! If we want to avoid a similar outcome in the future, we have to get serious about the electoral math and stopping Jacob’s machine.
November 9, 2025 at 9:48 PM
Yeah, the mathematical reality sucks. I definitely wish it weren’t this way! If we want to avoid a similar outcome in the future, we have to get serious about the electoral math and stopping Jacob’s machine.
No. They never got serious about fundraising. And they needed TONS of money if they were going to be able to fight the Strib framing of a two person race.
November 9, 2025 at 5:29 PM
No. They never got serious about fundraising. And they needed TONS of money if they were going to be able to fight the Strib framing of a two person race.
Definitely! Davis was never serious about raising money. If he wanted to have any chance, he had to be far more serious about fundraising and field for more than a year. He had a path, but his campaign didn't do that work.
November 9, 2025 at 5:28 PM
Definitely! Davis was never serious about raising money. If he wanted to have any chance, he had to be far more serious about fundraising and field for more than a year. He had a path, but his campaign didn't do that work.
People are out here blaming RCV for Jacob's win. And I cannot stress this enough: RCV had literally nothing to do with it. Everything about this outcome was entirely predictable. Jacob had huge structural advantages: compliant local media, off-cycle election, PAC $, patronage networks.
November 9, 2025 at 5:20 PM
I already talked about those things in another thread! This is just the basics of why RCV wasn't going to ever make Fateh viable.
November 9, 2025 at 5:19 PM
I already talked about those things in another thread! This is just the basics of why RCV wasn't going to ever make Fateh viable.
I'm going to put together some data from the last three mayoral races and if you actually want to talk about this, we can. I'm happy to explain how political science research can help folks understand things like ceilings and viability and how an enthusiastic base is not the same as either of those.
November 9, 2025 at 5:16 PM
I'm going to put together some data from the last three mayoral races and if you actually want to talk about this, we can. I'm happy to explain how political science research can help folks understand things like ceilings and viability and how an enthusiastic base is not the same as either of those.
Lots of people, but not enough to win a majority! That's the whole point, Dan!
November 9, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Lots of people, but not enough to win a majority! That's the whole point, Dan!
Dan, I think you're great. I respect the work you do. But you're just not right about what viability means. An engaged base and lots of resources isn't the measure. It's not enough on its own. If it were, Jacob wouldn't have been elected. This is institutional design 101.
November 9, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Dan, I think you're great. I respect the work you do. But you're just not right about what viability means. An engaged base and lots of resources isn't the measure. It's not enough on its own. If it were, Jacob wouldn't have been elected. This is institutional design 101.
Yes, this is why progressive orgs need to be doing A LOT more political education about the electorate and institutions. Shifting the electorate to the left takes a long time. You're just not going to see a big enough shift in one election for the left to be viable without the center.
November 9, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Yes, this is why progressive orgs need to be doing A LOT more political education about the electorate and institutions. Shifting the electorate to the left takes a long time. You're just not going to see a big enough shift in one election for the left to be viable without the center.
Yes, he did! And all of these things are a function of being an established politician. But you can't confuse a very enthusiastic base with viability. You have to take the actual distribution of the electorate into consideration. As much as I wish MPLS had moved left enough for Fateh win, it hasn't.
November 9, 2025 at 4:50 PM
Yes, he did! And all of these things are a function of being an established politician. But you can't confuse a very enthusiastic base with viability. You have to take the actual distribution of the electorate into consideration. As much as I wish MPLS had moved left enough for Fateh win, it hasn't.
Fateh had incumbency advantages that made it far easier for him to get money and endorsements. The problem was mostly about Jazz and Davis running against established politicians.
November 9, 2025 at 4:48 PM
Fateh had incumbency advantages that made it far easier for him to get money and endorsements. The problem was mostly about Jazz and Davis running against established politicians.
As a political scientist, I can tell you that this is not just "digging around in chicken entrails." I understand that it might look like that to folks who don't study institutions, but there is just some very basic electoral math at play here that makes candidates ceilings pretty clear.
November 9, 2025 at 4:46 PM
As a political scientist, I can tell you that this is not just "digging around in chicken entrails." I understand that it might look like that to folks who don't study institutions, but there is just some very basic electoral math at play here that makes candidates ceilings pretty clear.
And this is where it gets back to counterfactual of what a Davis/Frey face-off would have looked like. Jacob's team couldn't come after Davis for corruption. The primary wedge Jacob used wouldn't have been there with Davis. Davis had a higher ceiling and less liabilities.
November 9, 2025 at 4:44 PM
And this is where it gets back to counterfactual of what a Davis/Frey face-off would have looked like. Jacob's team couldn't come after Davis for corruption. The primary wedge Jacob used wouldn't have been there with Davis. Davis had a higher ceiling and less liabilities.
Until leftists have 50%+1, sincere voting will result in the worst possible outcome. Rank choice voting doesn't get rid of the SMDP requirement of strategic voting (blocking the worst option) it just changes the calculation a bit about how to build a winning coalition.
November 9, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Until leftists have 50%+1, sincere voting will result in the worst possible outcome. Rank choice voting doesn't get rid of the SMDP requirement of strategic voting (blocking the worst option) it just changes the calculation a bit about how to build a winning coalition.