Kateryna Stepanenko
@katstepanenko.bsky.social
Russia Research Fellow @TheStudyofWar.bsky.social | Russian Cognitive Warfare, Kremlin Drama, Drones & Force Generation | opinions my own
https://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/staff-bios/kateryna-stepanenko
https://www.understandingwar.org/press-media/staff-bios/kateryna-stepanenko
Pinned
NEW: Putin is Unlikely to Demobilize in the Event of a Ceasefire Because He is Afraid of His Veterans, by ISW Deputy Russia Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social
Read the special report: isw.pub/AfghanSyndrome
Read the special report: isw.pub/AfghanSyndrome
Putin is likely afraid of having over 700,000 Russian veterans return to Russia in the event of demobilization out of fear that veteran groups could threaten the stability of his regime upon their return.
Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵
Putin launched a deliberate campaign to suppress veteran civil societies.🧵
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
Russian advances in Pokrovsk resulted not from a sudden breakthrough but rather from months of dedicated battlefield shaping.
Read more in the November 14, 2025, report by @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RussianBAIBST
Read more in the November 14, 2025, report by @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RussianBAIBST
November 14, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Russian advances in Pokrovsk resulted not from a sudden breakthrough but rather from months of dedicated battlefield shaping.
Read more in the November 14, 2025, report by @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RussianBAIBST
Read more in the November 14, 2025, report by @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RussianBAIBST
The Kremlin will likely formally amend restrictions on mobilizing Russia’s active reserve to conduct rolling partial mobilization without declaring war on Ukraine or formally announcing that it is conducting a partial involuntary call up.
A🧵on our latest with @georgewbarros.bsky.social
A🧵on our latest with @georgewbarros.bsky.social
WARNING: The Kremlin is Preparing to Mobilize Reservists on a Rolling Basis to Fight in Ukraine for the First Time: isw.pub/UKRWARNO101325
Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time.
Note: This warning does not suggest that the Kremlin is likely to undertake a single large-scale mobilization at this time.
October 14, 2025 at 1:41 PM
The Kremlin will likely formally amend restrictions on mobilizing Russia’s active reserve to conduct rolling partial mobilization without declaring war on Ukraine or formally announcing that it is conducting a partial involuntary call up.
A🧵on our latest with @georgewbarros.bsky.social
A🧵on our latest with @georgewbarros.bsky.social
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
NEW: Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during the Russian MoD Collegium on August 29. 🧵(1/5)
Read more:
Read more:
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, September 24, 2025
Russian Defense Minister Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian MoD on August 29, per ISW.
isw.pub
September 24, 2025 at 8:55 PM
NEW: Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov outlined 10 priority objectives for the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) during the Russian MoD Collegium on August 29. 🧵(1/5)
Read more:
Read more:
The Kremlin launched an initiative to neurologically profile 10,000 Russian children to identify leaders and anti-leaders & improve patriotism among the Russian youth.
This initiative is likely part of the Kremlin's cognitive warfare effort aimed at garnering support for Russia's war efforts.🧵
This initiative is likely part of the Kremlin's cognitive warfare effort aimed at garnering support for Russia's war efforts.🧵
NEW: RU law enforcement and the MoD may have coerced at least 20,000 Central Asian migrants to fight in Ukraine within the Russian military.
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, August 13, 2025: isw.pub/ForceGenUpda...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ 🧵 (1/7)
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, August 13, 2025: isw.pub/ForceGenUpda...
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️ 🧵 (1/7)
August 25, 2025 at 2:24 PM
The Kremlin launched an initiative to neurologically profile 10,000 Russian children to identify leaders and anti-leaders & improve patriotism among the Russian youth.
This initiative is likely part of the Kremlin's cognitive warfare effort aimed at garnering support for Russia's war efforts.🧵
This initiative is likely part of the Kremlin's cognitive warfare effort aimed at garnering support for Russia's war efforts.🧵
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
NEW: Russian Drone Innovations are Likely Achieving Effects of Battlefield Air Interdiction in Ukraine
Read the Special Report by ISW Russia Analyst and Deputy Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/Russiandrone...
Key Takeaways ⬇🧵(1/6)
Read the Special Report by ISW Russia Analyst and Deputy Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/Russiandrone...
Key Takeaways ⬇🧵(1/6)
August 7, 2025 at 1:31 PM
NEW: Russian Drone Innovations are Likely Achieving Effects of Battlefield Air Interdiction in Ukraine
Read the Special Report by ISW Russia Analyst and Deputy Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/Russiandrone...
Key Takeaways ⬇🧵(1/6)
Read the Special Report by ISW Russia Analyst and Deputy Team Lead @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/Russiandrone...
Key Takeaways ⬇🧵(1/6)
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
"All of these components — new military districts, changes in mobilization and defence spending — are suggesting that Russia is preparing for a protracted war, not just in Ukraine but also against NATO," ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social told @kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com/russias-new-...
Russia's new mobilization law yet another sign Kremlin is preparing for war with NATO, analysts say
Increased spending on defense and a new Russian conscription law are signs of the Kremlin's increasingly aggressive posture and preparations for future conflict with Europe and NATO states, according ...
kyivindependent.com
July 29, 2025 at 7:01 PM
"All of these components — new military districts, changes in mobilization and defence spending — are suggesting that Russia is preparing for a protracted war, not just in Ukraine but also against NATO," ISW's @katstepanenko.bsky.social told @kyivindependent.com kyivindependent.com/russias-new-...
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
Russian and Ukrainian drones use cellphone internet networks to operate, so shutdowns are one way authorities try to counter the attacks, said @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
July 18, 2025 at 5:02 PM
Russian and Ukrainian drones use cellphone internet networks to operate, so shutdowns are one way authorities try to counter the attacks, said @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War.
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
NEW: Russia is a key player in the cognitive warfare space and a model for China, Iran, and North Korea. Understanding cognitive warfare is a national security requirement for the United States.
Read our primer by @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social & @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RUSCognitive...
Read our primer by @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social & @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RUSCognitive...
July 1, 2025 at 3:24 PM
NEW: Russia is a key player in the cognitive warfare space and a model for China, Iran, and North Korea. Understanding cognitive warfare is a national security requirement for the United States.
Read our primer by @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social & @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RUSCognitive...
Read our primer by @nataliyabugayova.bsky.social & @katstepanenko.bsky.social: isw.pub/RUSCognitive...
It's the second anniversary of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny & the Kremlin is trying to prevent another mutiny by raising a veterans-based elite.
Putin, however, may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to his regime stability by emboldening veterans.🧵
Putin, however, may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to his regime stability by emboldening veterans.🧵
The Kremlin may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to Putin’s regime stability by emboldening veterans who may use their influence to advance their personal, financial, or political ambitions at the expense of the regime.
A🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's latest Force Generation report.
A🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's latest Force Generation report.
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his commitment to raising a new elite comprised of loyal veterans via the Time of Heroes federal program, which appoints veterans into positions of federal, regional, and municipal power. (1/3) isw.pub/ForceGen061825
June 24, 2025 at 3:12 PM
It's the second anniversary of Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin's mutiny & the Kremlin is trying to prevent another mutiny by raising a veterans-based elite.
Putin, however, may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to his regime stability by emboldening veterans.🧵
Putin, however, may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to his regime stability by emboldening veterans.🧵
The Kremlin may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to Putin’s regime stability by emboldening veterans who may use their influence to advance their personal, financial, or political ambitions at the expense of the regime.
A🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's latest Force Generation report.
A🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's latest Force Generation report.
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated his commitment to raising a new elite comprised of loyal veterans via the Time of Heroes federal program, which appoints veterans into positions of federal, regional, and municipal power. (1/3) isw.pub/ForceGen061825
June 18, 2025 at 5:44 PM
The Kremlin may once again inadvertently nurture a threat to Putin’s regime stability by emboldening veterans who may use their influence to advance their personal, financial, or political ambitions at the expense of the regime.
A🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's latest Force Generation report.
A🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's latest Force Generation report.
The Kremlin is contradicting its ongoing centralization effort by reportedly delegating command of Africa Corps (which aimed to replace the Wagner Group) to a loyal Russian billionaire.
A 🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social’s latest force generation & tech adaptations report.
A 🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social’s latest force generation & tech adaptations report.
NEW: Ukrainian officials warned that the People's Republic of China (PRC) is increasingly enabling Russia to improve and grow its drone production.
Read more in the June 11, 2025 Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update: isw.pub/ForceGen061125
Read more in the June 11, 2025 Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update: isw.pub/ForceGen061125
June 12, 2025 at 7:45 PM
The Kremlin is contradicting its ongoing centralization effort by reportedly delegating command of Africa Corps (which aimed to replace the Wagner Group) to a loyal Russian billionaire.
A 🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social’s latest force generation & tech adaptations report.
A 🧵on @thestudyofwar.bsky.social’s latest force generation & tech adaptations report.
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
. @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said the strikes show that “nowhere in Russia is safe,” and that Ukraine is “shaping a new type of warfare.” via @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/06/02/u...
Ukraine Shows It Can Still Flip the Script on How Wars Are Waged
www.nytimes.com
June 3, 2025 at 3:14 PM
. @katstepanenko.bsky.social, a Russia analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said the strikes show that “nowhere in Russia is safe,” and that Ukraine is “shaping a new type of warfare.” via @nytimes.com www.nytimes.com/2025/06/02/u...
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
NEW: Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an active technological race to develop and deploy drones with artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities.
Read @katstepanenko.bsky.social's report covering Russian and Ukrainian AI drone efforts: isw.pub/BattlefieldA...
Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/5)
Read @katstepanenko.bsky.social's report covering Russian and Ukrainian AI drone efforts: isw.pub/BattlefieldA...
Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/5)
June 2, 2025 at 8:49 PM
NEW: Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an active technological race to develop and deploy drones with artificial intelligence and machine learning capabilities.
Read @katstepanenko.bsky.social's report covering Russian and Ukrainian AI drone efforts: isw.pub/BattlefieldA...
Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/5)
Read @katstepanenko.bsky.social's report covering Russian and Ukrainian AI drone efforts: isw.pub/BattlefieldA...
Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/5)
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
NEW | Russian recruiters continue to offer Russian recruits low-quality and ineffective military training before deploying them to Ukraine.
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, May 30, 2025: isw.pub/ForceGen053025
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/9)
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, May 30, 2025: isw.pub/ForceGen053025
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/9)
May 30, 2025 at 6:25 PM
NEW | Russian recruiters continue to offer Russian recruits low-quality and ineffective military training before deploying them to Ukraine.
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, May 30, 2025: isw.pub/ForceGen053025
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/9)
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update, May 30, 2025: isw.pub/ForceGen053025
Other Key Takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/9)
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to prioritize leveraging migrants to mitigate ongoing labor shortages, despite ongoing complaints from Russian ultranationalists advocating for the Kremlin to impose harsher restrictions on migrants. (🧵1/9)
Read More: isw.pub/ForceGen052125
Read More: isw.pub/ForceGen052125
May 21, 2025 at 4:56 PM
NEW: Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to prioritize leveraging migrants to mitigate ongoing labor shortages, despite ongoing complaints from Russian ultranationalists advocating for the Kremlin to impose harsher restrictions on migrants. (🧵1/9)
Read More: isw.pub/ForceGen052125
Read More: isw.pub/ForceGen052125
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
“Putin is continuing to conflate the negotiations needed to reach a cease-fire agreement with those needed to reach a peace settlement in order to drive confusion in the West and falsely paint Ukraine as intransigent,”
@katstepanenko.bsky.social recently told @nypost.com nypost.com/2025/05/19/u...
@katstepanenko.bsky.social recently told @nypost.com nypost.com/2025/05/19/u...
Trump wraps up call with Russia’s Putin, says cease-fire talks to start ‘immediately’
The White House did not immediately issue a readout on the Trump-Putin call, which was due to be followed by a conversation between the US president and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
nypost.com
May 21, 2025 at 4:02 PM
“Putin is continuing to conflate the negotiations needed to reach a cease-fire agreement with those needed to reach a peace settlement in order to drive confusion in the West and falsely paint Ukraine as intransigent,”
@katstepanenko.bsky.social recently told @nypost.com nypost.com/2025/05/19/u...
@katstepanenko.bsky.social recently told @nypost.com nypost.com/2025/05/19/u...
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense intensified recruitment efforts for the state-controlled Africa Corps starting in February 2025, likely in an effort to expand Russia’s military presence in Africa and raise an active reserve that the Kremlin can use in Ukraine. isw.pub/ForceGen051425 More ⏬
May 14, 2025 at 4:36 PM
NEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense intensified recruitment efforts for the state-controlled Africa Corps starting in February 2025, likely in an effort to expand Russia’s military presence in Africa and raise an active reserve that the Kremlin can use in Ukraine. isw.pub/ForceGen051425 More ⏬
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
NEW | Hiding Russia’s Weakness: isw.pub/HidingRussia...
The Kremlin is projecting the narrative of a powerful Russia and a powerful Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal the real weaknesses and limitations of Russia's capabilities and distract from Russia's battlefield failures. 🧵(1/4)
The Kremlin is projecting the narrative of a powerful Russia and a powerful Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal the real weaknesses and limitations of Russia's capabilities and distract from Russia's battlefield failures. 🧵(1/4)
May 9, 2025 at 8:26 PM
NEW | Hiding Russia’s Weakness: isw.pub/HidingRussia...
The Kremlin is projecting the narrative of a powerful Russia and a powerful Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal the real weaknesses and limitations of Russia's capabilities and distract from Russia's battlefield failures. 🧵(1/4)
The Kremlin is projecting the narrative of a powerful Russia and a powerful Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal the real weaknesses and limitations of Russia's capabilities and distract from Russia's battlefield failures. 🧵(1/4)
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
NEW | Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations Update May 7, 2025: Russian federal subjects continue to use dynamic pricing for one-time enlistment bonuses to incentivize volunteer recruitment. 1/3
Full report: isw.pub/RussianForce...
Full report: isw.pub/RussianForce...
May 7, 2025 at 3:16 PM
NEW | Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations Update May 7, 2025: Russian federal subjects continue to use dynamic pricing for one-time enlistment bonuses to incentivize volunteer recruitment. 1/3
Full report: isw.pub/RussianForce...
Full report: isw.pub/RussianForce...
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
@katstepanenko.bsky.social: “Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging... trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia winning." www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/w...
More American Air Defense Is on the Way to Help Ukraine (Gift Article)
A Patriot air-defense system is moving from Israel to Ukraine, and Western allies are discussing the logistics of getting Germany or Greece to send another.
www.nytimes.com
May 5, 2025 at 5:24 PM
@katstepanenko.bsky.social: “Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging... trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia winning." www.nytimes.com/2025/05/04/w...
Reposted by Kateryna Stepanenko
“Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging, in which it’s trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation, when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia actually winning.” - @katstepanenko.bsky.social
May 5, 2025 at 4:05 PM
“Part of it is a psychological and political campaign that the Kremlin is waging, in which it’s trying to scare Ukrainian people into essentially accepting capitulation, when the realities of the battlefield for Russia are far from Russia actually winning.” - @katstepanenko.bsky.social
Putin is expediting the formation of a country-wide, veteran-based elite loyal to the regime and Russia's war efforts by lowering eligibility requirements for veterans to join local government service.
A 🧵from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's new force generation & technical adaptations update.
A 🧵from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's new force generation & technical adaptations update.
April 30, 2025 at 4:21 PM
Putin is expediting the formation of a country-wide, veteran-based elite loyal to the regime and Russia's war efforts by lowering eligibility requirements for veterans to join local government service.
A 🧵from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's new force generation & technical adaptations update.
A 🧵from @thestudyofwar.bsky.social's new force generation & technical adaptations update.
The Kremlin falsely framed Ukraine's extension of martial law & continue mobilization through August as an effort to inhibit the peace process.
The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵
The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵
NEW: The Kremlin is using surge pricing for enlistment bonuses to recruit additional volunteers and attempt to sustain Russia's protracted war effort in Ukraine.
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update April 15, 2025: isw.pub/RussianForce...
More key takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/11)
Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update April 15, 2025: isw.pub/RussianForce...
More key takeaways ⬇️🧵(1/11)
April 17, 2025 at 2:25 PM
The Kremlin falsely framed Ukraine's extension of martial law & continue mobilization through August as an effort to inhibit the peace process.
The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵
The Kremlin, however, failed to acknowledge that Russia also has been intensifying its recruitment campaign to continue its war.🧵
Thrilled to share that @cnn.com cited my analysis on the news surrounding a popular Russian commander - Major General Ivan Popov - who attempted to weaponize his popularity & Russian information space to resist his removal from command in July 2023.
www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e...
A quick 🧵on Popov:
www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e...
A quick 🧵on Popov:
April 16, 2025 at 3:53 PM
Thrilled to share that @cnn.com cited my analysis on the news surrounding a popular Russian commander - Major General Ivan Popov - who attempted to weaponize his popularity & Russian information space to resist his removal from command in July 2023.
www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e...
A quick 🧵on Popov:
www.cnn.com/2025/04/15/e...
A quick 🧵on Popov:
Excited to announce that @thestudyofwar.bsky.social launched a new product line focusing on Russia's recruitment, technological adaptations, defense industrial base & force reconstitution.
First "Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations" update: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
First "Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations" update: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
April 16, 2025 at 2:27 PM
Excited to announce that @thestudyofwar.bsky.social launched a new product line focusing on Russia's recruitment, technological adaptations, defense industrial base & force reconstitution.
First "Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations" update: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...
First "Russian Force Generation & Technological Adaptations" update: www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder...