I suppose it would be a bit grim to open up a sweepstake?

With Sunday announcement timing I'm guessing it's in the teens.

I know folks like to point to UK (81% NDC2), but it's hard to argue with BraziI as fair barometer country with similar national circumstances (high agri., plenty of renewable electricity, car reliance etc). Hence their 59-67% below 2005 NDC2 puts into perspective how lackluster NZ target is.

@christinahood.bsky.social can probably speak to that better than I re the 'jumps' approach to setting NDC emissions budgets from Paris obligation perspective (I'd be somewhat stealing her points she has mentioned to me if I repeated them here, hehe).

Though budget calc. method in question when applied to NDC is very questionable in my eyes (wrote on it over on Substack: kapiticlimate.substack.com/p/the-techni... as did Christina Hood www.linkedin.com/pulse/explai...).

If you apply generous approach to how budget is calculated for NDC2, domestic EB3 (2031-35 - 240Mt) equates to 51% NDC2. CCC's draft advice suggests dropping EB3 to 221Mt, which'd get 'em to 58% NDC-2 (using same method).

So imagine they think they'll just roll the domestic EB over to NDC2.