Kailash Concepts
@kailashconcepts.bsky.social
Behavioral #Finance, Portfolio Strategy & #Quantamental Tool Kits Built by a Team with 70+ years of Experience
KCR What’s In Your Portfolio?TM
Disclaimer: http://bit.ly/KailashCap
KCR What’s In Your Portfolio?TM
Disclaimer: http://bit.ly/KailashCap
Our piece "Former Bears Make Their Bull Case on CHWY" examines a clear market inefficiency: a stock down 3% in 2025 while revenue growth doubled, margins expanded 80 bp, and FCF jumped 40%.
kailashconcepts.com/white-papers...
kailashconcepts.com/white-papers...
Former Bears Make Their Bull Case on CHWY
Click here to download the Premium PDF Click here to download the Basic PDF We are in the Moneyball Business, NOT the crystal ball business.TM -KCR Philosophy It is absurd to think that
kailashconcepts.com
February 12, 2026 at 2:34 PM
Our piece "Former Bears Make Their Bull Case on CHWY" examines a clear market inefficiency: a stock down 3% in 2025 while revenue growth doubled, margins expanded 80 bp, and FCF jumped 40%.
kailashconcepts.com/white-papers...
kailashconcepts.com/white-papers...
The chart below is featured in our piece "Best Charts of 2025"
kailashconcepts.com/white-papers...
It illustrates U.S. Market Cap distribution across size cohorts.
Companies >$500B command ~$29T in market value, more than 5x the combined capitalization of all firms below $10B.
kailashconcepts.com/white-papers...
It illustrates U.S. Market Cap distribution across size cohorts.
Companies >$500B command ~$29T in market value, more than 5x the combined capitalization of all firms below $10B.
February 11, 2026 at 9:38 PM
The chart below is featured in our piece "Best Charts of 2025"
kailashconcepts.com/white-papers...
It illustrates U.S. Market Cap distribution across size cohorts.
Companies >$500B command ~$29T in market value, more than 5x the combined capitalization of all firms below $10B.
kailashconcepts.com/white-papers...
It illustrates U.S. Market Cap distribution across size cohorts.
Companies >$500B command ~$29T in market value, more than 5x the combined capitalization of all firms below $10B.
Our piece "Best Charts of 2025" shows a market operating in uncharted waters.
Mega-caps hit a record 6x P/S, Tech FCF/EV collapsed to ~1% and just 16 stocks now hold ~$29T in value.
History suggests these extremes precede sharp reversals.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/best-charts-2025/
Mega-caps hit a record 6x P/S, Tech FCF/EV collapsed to ~1% and just 16 stocks now hold ~$29T in value.
History suggests these extremes precede sharp reversals.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/best-charts-2025/
Best Charts of 2025
Best Charts of 2025 analyzes record market concentration, mega-cap valuations, speculative excess, tech bubbles, and late-cycle investment risks.
kailashconcepts.com
January 30, 2026 at 9:16 PM
Our piece "Best Charts of 2025" shows a market operating in uncharted waters.
Mega-caps hit a record 6x P/S, Tech FCF/EV collapsed to ~1% and just 16 stocks now hold ~$29T in value.
History suggests these extremes precede sharp reversals.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/best-charts-2025/
Mega-caps hit a record 6x P/S, Tech FCF/EV collapsed to ~1% and just 16 stocks now hold ~$29T in value.
History suggests these extremes precede sharp reversals.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/best-charts-2025/
Our piece "What a Fright: Stock Buybacks that Keep Us Up at Night" details how companies trading at extreme multiples are burning billions on buybacks at sky-high valuations.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/what-a-fright/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/what-a-fright/
What a Fright: Stock Buybacks that Keep Us Up at Night
An analysis of speculative stock buybacks, revealing how high valuations and debt-fueled repurchases risk financial stability in today’s market.
kailashconcepts.com
January 20, 2026 at 3:22 PM
Our piece "What a Fright: Stock Buybacks that Keep Us Up at Night" details how companies trading at extreme multiples are burning billions on buybacks at sky-high valuations.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/what-a-fright/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/what-a-fright/
Our piece "Tackling Technology's 'Earnings Elephant' – the Great Grift Continues" discusses why Tech's record profits are a mechanical illusion built on unprecedented Capex that must eventually hit income statements.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings/
Tackling Technology’s “Earnings Elephant” – the Great Grift Continues
An exposé on tech's inflated earnings, costly illusions, and the financial sleight-of-hand driving Wall Street’s bubble in big-cap technology stocks.
kailashconcepts.com
January 15, 2026 at 7:55 PM
Our piece "Tackling Technology's 'Earnings Elephant' – the Great Grift Continues" discusses why Tech's record profits are a mechanical illusion built on unprecedented Capex that must eventually hit income statements.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings/
Our piece "Accountability with KCR: Our Views on Tech Since Our Founding" details how our evidence-based process has swung from unambiguously bullish on Tech to record bearishness.
Currently, almost 60% of our short book is Tech stocks.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/accountability/
Currently, almost 60% of our short book is Tech stocks.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/accountability/
Accountability with KCR: Our Views on Tech Since Our Founding
KCR reflects on tech investing trends, shifting from bullish to bearish, driven by data-led insights across Large Cap and SMID portfolios since 2010.
kailashconcepts.com
January 8, 2026 at 9:16 PM
Our piece "Accountability with KCR: Our Views on Tech Since Our Founding" details how our evidence-based process has swung from unambiguously bullish on Tech to record bearishness.
Currently, almost 60% of our short book is Tech stocks.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/accountability/
Currently, almost 60% of our short book is Tech stocks.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/accountability/
The chart below is featured in our piece "Are Stock Buybacks in Your Best Interests?"
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/buybacks
It shows total net debt of stock repurchasers since 1989.
Net debt has surged to ~$5T, which is approaching levels last seen in the lead-up to the GFC.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/buybacks
It shows total net debt of stock repurchasers since 1989.
Net debt has surged to ~$5T, which is approaching levels last seen in the lead-up to the GFC.
December 30, 2025 at 6:09 PM
The chart below is featured in our piece "Are Stock Buybacks in Your Best Interests?"
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/buybacks
It shows total net debt of stock repurchasers since 1989.
Net debt has surged to ~$5T, which is approaching levels last seen in the lead-up to the GFC.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/buybacks
It shows total net debt of stock repurchasers since 1989.
Net debt has surged to ~$5T, which is approaching levels last seen in the lead-up to the GFC.
Our piece "Could AMD's Newest Chip & Software Challenge Nvidia's Dominance?" explores how AMD's MI450, the first 2nm GPU, and open-source ROCm platform are shrinking Nvidia's once-impenetrable moat.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/amd/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/amd/
Could AMD’s Newest Chip & Software Challenge Nvidia’s Dominance?
AMD narrows the gap with Nvidia through its MI450 GPUs and open-source ROCm software, reshaping the AI chip race and market dynamics.
kailashconcepts.com
December 16, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Our piece "Could AMD's Newest Chip & Software Challenge Nvidia's Dominance?" explores how AMD's MI450, the first 2nm GPU, and open-source ROCm platform are shrinking Nvidia's once-impenetrable moat.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/amd/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/amd/
Our piece "Low Quality Small-Caps Tear Higher" examines how disciplined investors have paid a brutal -21% penalty for avoiding low-quality garbage, and why 35+ years of historical data says they'll be vindicated in the long-run.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/low-quality/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/low-quality/
Low Quality Small-Caps Tear Higher - The Consequences of Late-Stage Capitalism?
Retail speculation drives small-cap stocks higher amid late-stage capitalism—low-quality firms surge as disciplined investors face brutal losses.
kailashconcepts.com
December 9, 2025 at 8:27 PM
Our piece "Low Quality Small-Caps Tear Higher" examines how disciplined investors have paid a brutal -21% penalty for avoiding low-quality garbage, and why 35+ years of historical data says they'll be vindicated in the long-run.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/low-quality/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/low-quality/
Our piece "A Tech Talk: The Troubles of 2025 are on Full Display" highlights the brutal valuation disconnect in the US Tech sector today.
KCR believes that Tech margins are endlessly extrapolated and that reckless speculation has run rampant.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/a-tech-talk/
KCR believes that Tech margins are endlessly extrapolated and that reckless speculation has run rampant.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/a-tech-talk/
A Tech Talk: The Troubles of 2025 are on Full Display
Tech stocks soar on hype, not fundamentals. KCR warns of overvaluation, AI euphoria, and parallels to the dot-com bubble driving 2025’s fragile rally.
kailashconcepts.com
December 2, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Our piece "A Tech Talk: The Troubles of 2025 are on Full Display" highlights the brutal valuation disconnect in the US Tech sector today.
KCR believes that Tech margins are endlessly extrapolated and that reckless speculation has run rampant.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/a-tech-talk/
KCR believes that Tech margins are endlessly extrapolated and that reckless speculation has run rampant.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/a-tech-talk/
Our piece "The Power of Price & the Case for GIII Apparel Group Ltd" examines why markets are pricing in worst-case scenarios for a net-cash company that has generated over $800 million in Free Cash Flow over the past two years.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/giii/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/giii/
The Power of Price & the Case for GIII Apparel Group Ltd (GIII)
Deep-value case for G-III Apparel Group (GIII): strong owned brands, resilient cash flow, tariff mitigation, and upside despite license risks.
kailashconcepts.com
November 25, 2025 at 5:24 PM
Our piece "The Power of Price & the Case for GIII Apparel Group Ltd" examines why markets are pricing in worst-case scenarios for a net-cash company that has generated over $800 million in Free Cash Flow over the past two years.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/giii/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/giii/
Our piece “Could AMD’s Newest Chip & Software Challenge Nvidia’s Dominance?” details how AMD’s rapid innovation in GPUs and open-source software is eroding Nvidia’s long-held moat - possibly turning the AI hardware race into a true two-way race.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/amd/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/amd/
Could AMD’s Newest Chip & Software Challenge Nvidia’s Dominance?
AMD narrows the gap with Nvidia through its MI450 GPUs and open-source ROCm software, reshaping the AI chip race and market dynamics.
kailashconcepts.com
November 11, 2025 at 9:31 PM
Our piece “Could AMD’s Newest Chip & Software Challenge Nvidia’s Dominance?” details how AMD’s rapid innovation in GPUs and open-source software is eroding Nvidia’s long-held moat - possibly turning the AI hardware race into a true two-way race.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/amd/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/amd/
Our piece "Low Quality Small-Caps Tear Higher – The Consequences of Late-Stage Capitalism?" explores how retail-driven speculation has pushed low-quality small caps to outperform quality names.
This is a sure-fire signal of euphoric markets.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/low-quality/
This is a sure-fire signal of euphoric markets.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/low-quality/
Low Quality Small-Caps Tear Higher - The Consequences of Late-Stage Capitalism?
Retail speculation drives small-cap stocks higher amid late-stage capitalism—low-quality firms surge as disciplined investors face brutal losses.
kailashconcepts.com
November 5, 2025 at 9:18 PM
Our piece "Low Quality Small-Caps Tear Higher – The Consequences of Late-Stage Capitalism?" explores how retail-driven speculation has pushed low-quality small caps to outperform quality names.
This is a sure-fire signal of euphoric markets.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/low-quality/
This is a sure-fire signal of euphoric markets.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/low-quality/
The chart below is featured in our piece "Are Stock Buybacks in Your Best Interests?" ↓
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/buybacks
It shows total net debt of companies repurchasing their own shares has surged to nearly $5 trillion - levels last seen before the GFC.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/buybacks
It shows total net debt of companies repurchasing their own shares has surged to nearly $5 trillion - levels last seen before the GFC.
October 28, 2025 at 2:09 PM
The chart below is featured in our piece "Are Stock Buybacks in Your Best Interests?" ↓
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/buybacks
It shows total net debt of companies repurchasing their own shares has surged to nearly $5 trillion - levels last seen before the GFC.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/buybacks
It shows total net debt of companies repurchasing their own shares has surged to nearly $5 trillion - levels last seen before the GFC.
Our new piece Are Stock Buybacks in Your Best Interests?" examines why we've reversed our bullish stance on buybacks.
Net repurchasers now trade at 3.4x sales vs 1.6x in 2016 and are taking on debt to fund buybacks.
Same behavior, worse fundamentals.
https://loom.ly/hlou7uI
Net repurchasers now trade at 3.4x sales vs 1.6x in 2016 and are taking on debt to fund buybacks.
Same behavior, worse fundamentals.
https://loom.ly/hlou7uI
Are Stock Buybacks in Your Best Interests? An Update on our 2016 Work: Politicians & Corporate Stock Repurchases
Explore whether corporate stock buybacks still benefit investors amid rising valuations, soaring debt, and shifting market fundamentals.
kailashconcepts.com
October 24, 2025 at 5:31 PM
Our new piece Are Stock Buybacks in Your Best Interests?" examines why we've reversed our bullish stance on buybacks.
Net repurchasers now trade at 3.4x sales vs 1.6x in 2016 and are taking on debt to fund buybacks.
Same behavior, worse fundamentals.
https://loom.ly/hlou7uI
Net repurchasers now trade at 3.4x sales vs 1.6x in 2016 and are taking on debt to fund buybacks.
Same behavior, worse fundamentals.
https://loom.ly/hlou7uI
Our piece “Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD)” highlights why we believe this publicly-traded specialty physician network remains deeply undervalued.
MD’s fundamentals and FCF generation are strong and we see 20%+ upside if revalued modestly.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/md/
MD’s fundamentals and FCF generation are strong and we see 20%+ upside if revalued modestly.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/md/
Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc (MD)
Pediatrix Medical Group delivers NICU and pediatric care nationwide. Strong cash flow, undervalued stock, and PE acquisition potential drive bullish case.
kailashconcepts.com
October 21, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Our piece “Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc. (MD)” highlights why we believe this publicly-traded specialty physician network remains deeply undervalued.
MD’s fundamentals and FCF generation are strong and we see 20%+ upside if revalued modestly.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/md/
MD’s fundamentals and FCF generation are strong and we see 20%+ upside if revalued modestly.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/md/
Our piece "Venture Capital: Turning Today’s Dreams into Tomorrow’s Write-Downs" argues that a huge $4T VC backlog of often loss-making companies is hiding in private markets.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/venture-capital/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/venture-capital/
Venture Capital: Turning Today’s Dreams into Tomorrow’s Write-Downs
Venture capital faces a reckoning as overvalued, debt-heavy startups risk collapse—echoing dot-com era failures and threatening tech’s fragile boom.
kailashconcepts.com
October 16, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Our piece "Venture Capital: Turning Today’s Dreams into Tomorrow’s Write-Downs" argues that a huge $4T VC backlog of often loss-making companies is hiding in private markets.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/venture-capital/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/venture-capital/
The chart below is featured in our piece "Tackling Technology’s “Earnings Elephant” – the Great Grift Continues"↓
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings
It shows that Tech's share of corporate earnings is ~30%, which we believe represents a precarious level of concentration.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings
It shows that Tech's share of corporate earnings is ~30%, which we believe represents a precarious level of concentration.
October 14, 2025 at 8:08 PM
The chart below is featured in our piece "Tackling Technology’s “Earnings Elephant” – the Great Grift Continues"↓
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings
It shows that Tech's share of corporate earnings is ~30%, which we believe represents a precarious level of concentration.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings
It shows that Tech's share of corporate earnings is ~30%, which we believe represents a precarious level of concentration.
Our piece "Accountability with KCR: Our Views on Tech Since Our Founding" breaks down why our models have pivoted sharply on Tech - from enthusiasm to caution - as fundamentals reassert themselves over hype and speculation.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/accountability/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/accountability/
Accountability with KCR: Our Views on Tech Since Our Founding
KCR reflects on tech investing trends, shifting from bullish to bearish, driven by data-led insights across Large Cap and SMID portfolios since 2010.
kailashconcepts.com
October 7, 2025 at 8:26 PM
Our piece "Accountability with KCR: Our Views on Tech Since Our Founding" breaks down why our models have pivoted sharply on Tech - from enthusiasm to caution - as fundamentals reassert themselves over hype and speculation.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/accountability/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/accountability/
Our new piece "Could Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO) Soar Over 100%?" highlights how CSCO is quietly becoming an AI powerhouse.
Despite $13B in FCF and a growing role in data centers, CSCO trades at a steep discount to peers.
We see room for 100%+ upside.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/csco/
Despite $13B in FCF and a growing role in data centers, CSCO trades at a steep discount to peers.
We see room for 100%+ upside.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/csco/
Could Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO) Soar Over 100%?
Cisco Systems (CSCO) drives growth through AI infrastructure, subscription revenue, and networking dominance, with potential for major upside.
kailashconcepts.com
October 3, 2025 at 7:55 PM
Our new piece "Could Cisco Systems, Inc (CSCO) Soar Over 100%?" highlights how CSCO is quietly becoming an AI powerhouse.
Despite $13B in FCF and a growing role in data centers, CSCO trades at a steep discount to peers.
We see room for 100%+ upside.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/csco/
Despite $13B in FCF and a growing role in data centers, CSCO trades at a steep discount to peers.
We see room for 100%+ upside.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/csco/
Our piece "Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc (MD)" makes a bullish case for the stock, as KCR believes that MD shares are significantly undervalued.
MD shares trade at single-digit multiples despite strong FCF generation and improving fundamentals.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/md/
MD shares trade at single-digit multiples despite strong FCF generation and improving fundamentals.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/md/
Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc (MD)
Pediatrix Medical Group delivers NICU and pediatric care nationwide. Strong cash flow, undervalued stock, and PE acquisition potential drive bullish case.
kailashconcepts.com
October 1, 2025 at 6:12 PM
Our piece "Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc (MD)" makes a bullish case for the stock, as KCR believes that MD shares are significantly undervalued.
MD shares trade at single-digit multiples despite strong FCF generation and improving fundamentals.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/md/
MD shares trade at single-digit multiples despite strong FCF generation and improving fundamentals.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/md/
Our piece, "Manchester Explorer: A Profits Recession in Tech & Crypto Ahead?" highlights how the AI/datacenter boom mirrors the dot-com bubble - as Tech CAPEX now exceeds 2000 levels despite widespread consumer exhaustion.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/manchester/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/manchester/
Manchester Explorer: A Profits Recession in Tech & Crypto Ahead?
Manchester Explorer analyzes looming profits recession in tech and crypto, exposing bubbles, consumer strain, and risks for investors in 2025.
kailashconcepts.com
September 25, 2025 at 1:32 PM
Our piece, "Manchester Explorer: A Profits Recession in Tech & Crypto Ahead?" highlights how the AI/datacenter boom mirrors the dot-com bubble - as Tech CAPEX now exceeds 2000 levels despite widespread consumer exhaustion.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/manchester/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/manchester/
Our new piece "Manchester Explorer: A Profits Recession in Tech & Crypto Ahead?" highlights Manchester Asset Management's report that warns of a "tale of two economies" and the potential for a profits recession as valuations hit absurd levels.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/manchester/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/manchester/
Manchester Explorer: A Profits Recession in Tech & Crypto Ahead?
Manchester Explorer analyzes looming profits recession in tech and crypto, exposing bubbles, consumer strain, and risks for investors in 2025.
kailashconcepts.com
September 12, 2025 at 8:05 PM
Our new piece "Manchester Explorer: A Profits Recession in Tech & Crypto Ahead?" highlights Manchester Asset Management's report that warns of a "tale of two economies" and the potential for a profits recession as valuations hit absurd levels.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/manchester/
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/manchester/
The chart below is featured in our piece, "A Tech Talk" ↓
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/a-tech-talk
It shows that that the Tech % of total market cap against total sales as of 2024 echoes the dot.com bubble, equaling ~40% market cap but just ~13 in total sales.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/a-tech-talk
It shows that that the Tech % of total market cap against total sales as of 2024 echoes the dot.com bubble, equaling ~40% market cap but just ~13 in total sales.
September 11, 2025 at 4:27 PM
The chart below is featured in our piece, "A Tech Talk" ↓
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/a-tech-talk
It shows that that the Tech % of total market cap against total sales as of 2024 echoes the dot.com bubble, equaling ~40% market cap but just ~13 in total sales.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/a-tech-talk
It shows that that the Tech % of total market cap against total sales as of 2024 echoes the dot.com bubble, equaling ~40% market cap but just ~13 in total sales.
The chart below is featured in our piece "Tackling Technology's Earnings Elephant" ↓
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings
It highlights that profit margins in Tech are near all-time highs. Coupled with record multiples, the sector is at a major risk for mean reversion.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings
It highlights that profit margins in Tech are near all-time highs. Coupled with record multiples, the sector is at a major risk for mean reversion.
August 28, 2025 at 3:44 PM
The chart below is featured in our piece "Tackling Technology's Earnings Elephant" ↓
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings
It highlights that profit margins in Tech are near all-time highs. Coupled with record multiples, the sector is at a major risk for mean reversion.
https://kailashconcepts.com/white-papers/technologys-earnings
It highlights that profit margins in Tech are near all-time highs. Coupled with record multiples, the sector is at a major risk for mean reversion.