Jake Werner
@jwdwerner.bsky.social
Historian, director for East Asia @quincyinst.bsky.social, cofounder Justice Is Global. Previously @gdp-center.bsky.social, University of Chicago. Writing on US–China relations and global capitalism.
On the theme of “since December 2023”
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
November 11, 2025 at 7:14 PM
On the theme of “since December 2023”
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chi...
A positive interview overall from Bessent, who says the US and China have reached an “equilibrium”.
But below he’s misrepresenting things. China put the gun on the table in Dec, after Biden ignored Xi’s warning at the G20.
The Trump team’s overconfidence forced China to go further.
1/2
But below he’s misrepresenting things. China put the gun on the table in Dec, after Biden ignored Xi’s warning at the G20.
The Trump team’s overconfidence forced China to go further.
1/2
October 31, 2025 at 6:48 PM
A positive interview overall from Bessent, who says the US and China have reached an “equilibrium”.
But below he’s misrepresenting things. China put the gun on the table in Dec, after Biden ignored Xi’s warning at the G20.
The Trump team’s overconfidence forced China to go further.
1/2
But below he’s misrepresenting things. China put the gun on the table in Dec, after Biden ignored Xi’s warning at the G20.
The Trump team’s overconfidence forced China to go further.
1/2
The US built a system of weaponized interdependence to coerce the whole world. China is now building its own.
The US is reducing the damage it does to China through its system. China will do the same.
It’s not one side standing down but reciprocity that comes from credible threats on both sides.
The US is reducing the damage it does to China through its system. China will do the same.
It’s not one side standing down but reciprocity that comes from credible threats on both sides.
October 30, 2025 at 12:32 PM
The US built a system of weaponized interdependence to coerce the whole world. China is now building its own.
The US is reducing the damage it does to China through its system. China will do the same.
It’s not one side standing down but reciprocity that comes from credible threats on both sides.
The US is reducing the damage it does to China through its system. China will do the same.
It’s not one side standing down but reciprocity that comes from credible threats on both sides.
Already one major breakthrough from the Trump–Xi meeting:
We now have stock photos from THIS DECADE to illustrate our op-eds on US–China relations!
We now have stock photos from THIS DECADE to illustrate our op-eds on US–China relations!
October 30, 2025 at 2:23 AM
Already one major breakthrough from the Trump–Xi meeting:
We now have stock photos from THIS DECADE to illustrate our op-eds on US–China relations!
We now have stock photos from THIS DECADE to illustrate our op-eds on US–China relations!
Did Trump even know about the new restrictions his admin imposed?
When decisions are made by six guys talking on Signal and the bureaucracy is either smashed up or left to do their own thing without coordination from those guys, you stumble into unnecessary escalation like this.
When decisions are made by six guys talking on Signal and the bureaucracy is either smashed up or left to do their own thing without coordination from those guys, you stumble into unnecessary escalation like this.
October 12, 2025 at 4:30 PM
Did Trump even know about the new restrictions his admin imposed?
When decisions are made by six guys talking on Signal and the bureaucracy is either smashed up or left to do their own thing without coordination from those guys, you stumble into unnecessary escalation like this.
When decisions are made by six guys talking on Signal and the bureaucracy is either smashed up or left to do their own thing without coordination from those guys, you stumble into unnecessary escalation like this.
I shared my view on the latest China escalation cycle under Trump with the Washington Post
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
October 12, 2025 at 4:19 PM
I shared my view on the latest China escalation cycle under Trump with the Washington Post
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
Politico gathered denunciations of Jensen Huang from a long list of the usual suspects in the China panic industry.
I was very glad to be the lone voice against Chinese exclusion in our immigration policy and great power conflict in our foreign policy.
subscriber.politicopro.com/newsletter/2...
I was very glad to be the lone voice against Chinese exclusion in our immigration policy and great power conflict in our foreign policy.
subscriber.politicopro.com/newsletter/2...
October 7, 2025 at 10:18 PM
Politico gathered denunciations of Jensen Huang from a long list of the usual suspects in the China panic industry.
I was very glad to be the lone voice against Chinese exclusion in our immigration policy and great power conflict in our foreign policy.
subscriber.politicopro.com/newsletter/2...
I was very glad to be the lone voice against Chinese exclusion in our immigration policy and great power conflict in our foreign policy.
subscriber.politicopro.com/newsletter/2...
@yarbatman.bsky.social on WSJ article:
“Total Chinese contracting turnover in Iran in 2023 was just $639m/288 Chinese workers. Compared to $4.2bn/4000 Chinese workers in Iraq…
“what we aren't seeing is actual Chinese investment in Iran that drives growth…China is avoiding Iran, not the sanctions.”
“Total Chinese contracting turnover in Iran in 2023 was just $639m/288 Chinese workers. Compared to $4.2bn/4000 Chinese workers in Iraq…
“what we aren't seeing is actual Chinese investment in Iran that drives growth…China is avoiding Iran, not the sanctions.”
October 6, 2025 at 2:27 PM
@yarbatman.bsky.social on WSJ article:
“Total Chinese contracting turnover in Iran in 2023 was just $639m/288 Chinese workers. Compared to $4.2bn/4000 Chinese workers in Iraq…
“what we aren't seeing is actual Chinese investment in Iran that drives growth…China is avoiding Iran, not the sanctions.”
“Total Chinese contracting turnover in Iran in 2023 was just $639m/288 Chinese workers. Compared to $4.2bn/4000 Chinese workers in Iraq…
“what we aren't seeing is actual Chinese investment in Iran that drives growth…China is avoiding Iran, not the sanctions.”
What would Jesus do?
Hegseth: He would tell kids to join the military, to kill and be killed, as long as they don’t have any dudes in dresses there. You know, just like He said in the Golden Rule.
Hegseth: He would tell kids to join the military, to kill and be killed, as long as they don’t have any dudes in dresses there. You know, just like He said in the Golden Rule.
September 30, 2025 at 7:12 PM
What would Jesus do?
Hegseth: He would tell kids to join the military, to kill and be killed, as long as they don’t have any dudes in dresses there. You know, just like He said in the Golden Rule.
Hegseth: He would tell kids to join the military, to kill and be killed, as long as they don’t have any dudes in dresses there. You know, just like He said in the Golden Rule.
In US discussions, this knowing cynicism is by far the most common way of talking about China’s stated positions on global order. Principled claims are portrayed as purely instrumental.
But it misses something very important.
1/
But it misses something very important.
1/
September 26, 2025 at 10:26 PM
In US discussions, this knowing cynicism is by far the most common way of talking about China’s stated positions on global order. Principled claims are portrayed as purely instrumental.
But it misses something very important.
1/
But it misses something very important.
1/
Very encouraging readouts from both sides of the Trump–Xi call. Trump implies the TikTok deal is going forward but the Chinese language is ambiguous.
Xi emphasized hopes for an open investment environment for Chinese capital in the US, which is a good sign.
Xi emphasized hopes for an open investment environment for Chinese capital in the US, which is a good sign.
September 19, 2025 at 4:09 PM
Very encouraging readouts from both sides of the Trump–Xi call. Trump implies the TikTok deal is going forward but the Chinese language is ambiguous.
Xi emphasized hopes for an open investment environment for Chinese capital in the US, which is a good sign.
Xi emphasized hopes for an open investment environment for Chinese capital in the US, which is a good sign.
Slotkin spoke with utmost confidence on the Manhattan Project even though she didn’t know what it was. She deleted the video.
Every minute of every day in DC, someone says something just as ignorant on China with just as much confidence. Far more damaging, but they never have to bury their tracks.
Every minute of every day in DC, someone says something just as ignorant on China with just as much confidence. Far more damaging, but they never have to bury their tracks.
September 6, 2025 at 2:18 AM
Slotkin spoke with utmost confidence on the Manhattan Project even though she didn’t know what it was. She deleted the video.
Every minute of every day in DC, someone says something just as ignorant on China with just as much confidence. Far more damaging, but they never have to bury their tracks.
Every minute of every day in DC, someone says something just as ignorant on China with just as much confidence. Far more damaging, but they never have to bury their tracks.
Yet he compulsively draws attention to his own crimes.
Here is Rahm Emanuel, who enthusiastically supported the Iraq war. Rahm Emanuel, who more than anyone but Larry Summers is directly responsible for the disastrous Obama response to the 2008 financial crisis.
3/
Here is Rahm Emanuel, who enthusiastically supported the Iraq war. Rahm Emanuel, who more than anyone but Larry Summers is directly responsible for the disastrous Obama response to the 2008 financial crisis.
3/
September 2, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Yet he compulsively draws attention to his own crimes.
Here is Rahm Emanuel, who enthusiastically supported the Iraq war. Rahm Emanuel, who more than anyone but Larry Summers is directly responsible for the disastrous Obama response to the 2008 financial crisis.
3/
Here is Rahm Emanuel, who enthusiastically supported the Iraq war. Rahm Emanuel, who more than anyone but Larry Summers is directly responsible for the disastrous Obama response to the 2008 financial crisis.
3/
Emanuel casts Trump-style reaction and Bernie’s progressive agenda as equally irrational and destructive, with no positive reform program.
He does so because it’s the only way he can present corporate power and US military domination as the answer to rather than the source of today’s calamities.
2/
He does so because it’s the only way he can present corporate power and US military domination as the answer to rather than the source of today’s calamities.
2/
September 2, 2025 at 10:23 PM
Emanuel casts Trump-style reaction and Bernie’s progressive agenda as equally irrational and destructive, with no positive reform program.
He does so because it’s the only way he can present corporate power and US military domination as the answer to rather than the source of today’s calamities.
2/
He does so because it’s the only way he can present corporate power and US military domination as the answer to rather than the source of today’s calamities.
2/
With his customary subtlety, Rahm Emanuel lays bare the choice before Democrats.
On one side, centrists seek to preserve inequalities at home and abroad, suppressing discontent by vilifying China.
On the other, progressives seek peace and equality within and between countries.
1/
On one side, centrists seek to preserve inequalities at home and abroad, suppressing discontent by vilifying China.
On the other, progressives seek peace and equality within and between countries.
1/
September 2, 2025 at 10:23 PM
With his customary subtlety, Rahm Emanuel lays bare the choice before Democrats.
On one side, centrists seek to preserve inequalities at home and abroad, suppressing discontent by vilifying China.
On the other, progressives seek peace and equality within and between countries.
1/
On one side, centrists seek to preserve inequalities at home and abroad, suppressing discontent by vilifying China.
On the other, progressives seek peace and equality within and between countries.
1/
It’s very ominous to see supposedly progressive Democrats attacking Trump from the standpoint of militarism and great power conflict.
July 29, 2025 at 3:55 PM
It’s very ominous to see supposedly progressive Democrats attacking Trump from the standpoint of militarism and great power conflict.
The moment before the bubble bursts always makes for great content.
www.ft.com/content/2450...
www.ft.com/content/2450...
July 26, 2025 at 6:41 PM
The moment before the bubble bursts always makes for great content.
www.ft.com/content/2450...
www.ft.com/content/2450...
Trump’s tariff letters seem to be nothing more than a distraction from the fact that he’s again postponing the liberation day tariffs.
But one big question remains:
What is the letter to the Heard and McDonald Islands going to say??
But one big question remains:
What is the letter to the Heard and McDonald Islands going to say??
July 7, 2025 at 8:39 PM
Trump’s tariff letters seem to be nothing more than a distraction from the fact that he’s again postponing the liberation day tariffs.
But one big question remains:
What is the letter to the Heard and McDonald Islands going to say??
But one big question remains:
What is the letter to the Heard and McDonald Islands going to say??
Let’s check in on how the high-stakes US–Japan trade talks have been going...
June 10, 2025 at 5:58 PM
Let’s check in on how the high-stakes US–Japan trade talks have been going...
But if both sides dial back their export restrictions, that just leaves us right back where we were May 12, which was barely any different from where we were before liberation day on April 2.
The big question, then, is how we get out of this larger morass:
/3
The big question, then, is how we get out of this larger morass:
/3
June 10, 2025 at 3:33 PM
But if both sides dial back their export restrictions, that just leaves us right back where we were May 12, which was barely any different from where we were before liberation day on April 2.
The big question, then, is how we get out of this larger morass:
/3
The big question, then, is how we get out of this larger morass:
/3
1/ Trump finally made the call he was longing for and the negotiations that were undermined from day 1 might finally get underway. Trump’s readout is bit too optimistic, though.
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
June 5, 2025 at 5:55 PM
1/ Trump finally made the call he was longing for and the negotiations that were undermined from day 1 might finally get underway. Trump’s readout is bit too optimistic, though.
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...
…the EU is rejecting the US demands that would upend Europe’s core political economy—demands that are animated by US economic nationalism and the open application of coercion to wring advantages from weaker parties.
2/
2/
May 27, 2025 at 3:38 PM
…the EU is rejecting the US demands that would upend Europe’s core political economy—demands that are animated by US economic nationalism and the open application of coercion to wring advantages from weaker parties.
2/
2/
This is not a niche issue. It gets at the fundamental direction of US global strategy.
The EU is sending a clear signal that it can work with the US on exclusionary measures targeting China—basically returning to the Biden offer. But…
1/
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
The EU is sending a clear signal that it can work with the US on exclusionary measures targeting China—basically returning to the Biden offer. But…
1/
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
May 27, 2025 at 3:38 PM
This is not a niche issue. It gets at the fundamental direction of US global strategy.
The EU is sending a clear signal that it can work with the US on exclusionary measures targeting China—basically returning to the Biden offer. But…
1/
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
The EU is sending a clear signal that it can work with the US on exclusionary measures targeting China—basically returning to the Biden offer. But…
1/
www.wsj.com/economy/trad...
I’m really looking forward to this discussion with Stacie Kent on her wonderful new book.
If you’re in Chicago and interested in Chinese history or social theory, join us this Thursday in Hyde Park!
Register here:
www.eventbrite.com/e/east-asia-...
If you’re in Chicago and interested in Chinese history or social theory, join us this Thursday in Hyde Park!
Register here:
www.eventbrite.com/e/east-asia-...
May 13, 2025 at 9:01 PM
I’m really looking forward to this discussion with Stacie Kent on her wonderful new book.
If you’re in Chicago and interested in Chinese history or social theory, join us this Thursday in Hyde Park!
Register here:
www.eventbrite.com/e/east-asia-...
If you’re in Chicago and interested in Chinese history or social theory, join us this Thursday in Hyde Park!
Register here:
www.eventbrite.com/e/east-asia-...
The only way such aims could translate into a durable new political authority would be under pressures of great power war—something that is now a genuine possibility and the only point of Trump’s agenda that seems to be a non-issue for his opponents.
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-china-...
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responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-china-...
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April 30, 2025 at 8:29 PM
The only way such aims could translate into a durable new political authority would be under pressures of great power war—something that is now a genuine possibility and the only point of Trump’s agenda that seems to be a non-issue for his opponents.
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-china-...
25/
responsiblestatecraft.org/trump-china-...
25/