I looked at this data now and from 2021 to 2023 approximately 30,959 medium skilled jobs registered their COS on an annually salary of over £50k. This assumes that an * in the database is considered as 1 (the official guidance is that it is less than 5).

Hi James, so 195 people in this category were making over £55k in year 2023. Surely, this number will rise to a thousand or more if we look at data for 2021 and later? 2 job codes here have people earning more than £50k and yet they’re low skill & earnings? Says a lot about the CASCOT tool used.

Perhaps there’s one individual (truly rare scenario) who is making £125k and they would see their settlement reduced from 15 to 8? Surely not.

But surely categorising ones that make more money as low paid migrant is a legal suicide. Some clearly make over the first threshold, if the numbers are low I’d be inclined to say these lot will be exempted from 15 year settlement and be navigated on baseline (of 10).

Hi James, logically i see them back tracking and using bits and bobs as part of transitional arrangements. Do you know how many on medium skills (RQF-6 roles not included) are paid over £51k in your data-set? Also, SOC codes change all the time including rates and classification of skill level.

Legend, cheers mate!

Hi James! Assuming you’ve baked in that ILR is granted based on current rules in the model. What’s the % of migrants gaining ILR in 2026 (that entered in 2021)?

Thanks mate, let us know if you’ve got interesting in your analysis. I’ll share more if I came across anything that intrigues me.

Haven’t seen any traces of dependants either in that spreadsheets. Perhaps be somewhere else.

Enjoy the dive in the spreadsheet! The source is quite good to find other things about immigration that may be of interest.

~70% of main applicants acquired their COS where yearly wage was less than £50k from 2020 to 23. If they were to retrospectively apply changes, considering average ILR grants is ~250k a year from 2020 to 25. I’m inclined that to say that anyone above £50k will still be able to get ILR in 5 years.

Hi James, don’t know if this data will be of any help to you. www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/cos_...

Thanks again, you reckon it’s inevitable for HO to apply this retrospectively and put a salary requirement to all as part of earned settlement in 5 years? May not be harsh but perhaps close to the current £41k one needs when acquiring sponsorship. It’s a shame I’m requesting you to speculate!

Hi James! 879k of the 1.6 mil migrants who arrived from 2021 to 2024 were earning less than the British median wage of £29,640 a year. Is this true from your findings or the figures are skewed for a specific narrative. What do you reckon? If true, do you know if £29k has a negative fiscal impact?

Thank you, gaps inadvertently lead to unfavourable policies for end users (immigrants). Someone who came on minimum salary threshold in 2022, with a dependent could jointly be making £60k a year. With gaps though, policy makers may fail to anticipate and realise these benefits in fiscal growth.

On that point James, do you know how dependants play a role in the proposed new settlement scheme (retrospective and prospective)? Would a non working dependant be scrutinised compared to working ones? Does HO have resources (tech, processes etc) to evaluate this clubbed with main applicant?