Justin Sandefur
@justsand.bsky.social
Development economist, worrying about economic growth these days. https://www.openphilanthropy.org/about/team/justin-sandefur/
Book launch day -- congrats to @arvind2011.bsky.social & Devesh Kapur!
The book is full of data and historical vignettes, but more importantly, really challenges a lot of received wisdom about India's development trajectory.
Must read.
The book is full of data and historical vignettes, but more importantly, really challenges a lot of received wisdom about India's development trajectory.
Must read.
October 22, 2025 at 3:08 PM
Book launch day -- congrats to @arvind2011.bsky.social & Devesh Kapur!
The book is full of data and historical vignettes, but more importantly, really challenges a lot of received wisdom about India's development trajectory.
Must read.
The book is full of data and historical vignettes, but more importantly, really challenges a lot of received wisdom about India's development trajectory.
Must read.
America's offer to Africa:
Trade not aid! But also, no more trade preferences.
Trade not aid! But also, no more trade preferences.
September 23, 2025 at 11:24 AM
America's offer to Africa:
Trade not aid! But also, no more trade preferences.
Trade not aid! But also, no more trade preferences.
Tourists sun by the pool overlooking the high court next door, where Tanzania’s opposition leader — previously shot 16 times — is being tried for treason.
A metaphor perhaps for the international community’s response to Tanzania’s democratic backsliding.
A metaphor perhaps for the international community’s response to Tanzania’s democratic backsliding.
September 8, 2025 at 10:45 AM
Tourists sun by the pool overlooking the high court next door, where Tanzania’s opposition leader — previously shot 16 times — is being tried for treason.
A metaphor perhaps for the international community’s response to Tanzania’s democratic backsliding.
A metaphor perhaps for the international community’s response to Tanzania’s democratic backsliding.
Lesotho was one of the biggest successes of AGOA -- which meant 'liberation day' hit particularly hard.
Little early to see this in the trade data, but doesn't look great.
NYT reporting factories shuttered. People going from $7/day factory jobs to $1/day hawking on the street.
Little early to see this in the trade data, but doesn't look great.
NYT reporting factories shuttered. People going from $7/day factory jobs to $1/day hawking on the street.
August 1, 2025 at 2:23 PM
Lesotho was one of the biggest successes of AGOA -- which meant 'liberation day' hit particularly hard.
Little early to see this in the trade data, but doesn't look great.
NYT reporting factories shuttered. People going from $7/day factory jobs to $1/day hawking on the street.
Little early to see this in the trade data, but doesn't look great.
NYT reporting factories shuttered. People going from $7/day factory jobs to $1/day hawking on the street.
Finally, cancelling contracts is one thing. The real question is if and when USAID or State will issue new ones.
In terms of $ obligated, aid has flatlined since the inauguration, but remains not too far behind where it should be for the fiscal year.
A lot hinges on what happens now.
In terms of $ obligated, aid has flatlined since the inauguration, but remains not too far behind where it should be for the fiscal year.
A lot hinges on what happens now.
March 16, 2025 at 12:32 AM
Finally, cancelling contracts is one thing. The real question is if and when USAID or State will issue new ones.
In terms of $ obligated, aid has flatlined since the inauguration, but remains not too far behind where it should be for the fiscal year.
A lot hinges on what happens now.
In terms of $ obligated, aid has flatlined since the inauguration, but remains not too far behind where it should be for the fiscal year.
A lot hinges on what happens now.
In a 2nd piece, we look at the list of USAID contracts Rubio says he has cancelled.
www.cgdev.org/blog/usaid-c...
A lot of guesswork here, but we estimate it's >1/3 of USAID's total activity in FY 2024.
Notably, life-saving health aid is not spared by those cuts.
www.cgdev.org/blog/usaid-c...
A lot of guesswork here, but we estimate it's >1/3 of USAID's total activity in FY 2024.
Notably, life-saving health aid is not spared by those cuts.
March 16, 2025 at 12:29 AM
In a 2nd piece, we look at the list of USAID contracts Rubio says he has cancelled.
www.cgdev.org/blog/usaid-c...
A lot of guesswork here, but we estimate it's >1/3 of USAID's total activity in FY 2024.
Notably, life-saving health aid is not spared by those cuts.
www.cgdev.org/blog/usaid-c...
A lot of guesswork here, but we estimate it's >1/3 of USAID's total activity in FY 2024.
Notably, life-saving health aid is not spared by those cuts.
About half of those lives saved come from HIV/AIDS treatment, but other big contributors are humanitarian relief, aid for vaccines, tuberculosis, and malaria.
Geographically, it's largely in Africa.
Geographically, it's largely in Africa.
March 16, 2025 at 12:26 AM
About half of those lives saved come from HIV/AIDS treatment, but other big contributors are humanitarian relief, aid for vaccines, tuberculosis, and malaria.
Geographically, it's largely in Africa.
Geographically, it's largely in Africa.
In our CGD piece, Charles and I estimate that U.S. foreign aid likely saves somewhere on the order of 2.3 to 5.6 million annually. Our preferred number is 3.3 million.
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-man...
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-man...
March 16, 2025 at 12:25 AM
In our CGD piece, Charles and I estimate that U.S. foreign aid likely saves somewhere on the order of 2.3 to 5.6 million annually. Our preferred number is 3.3 million.
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-man...
www.cgdev.org/blog/how-man...
Each dot represents 10 people whose lives depend on US foreign aid, just for HIV prevention & treatment.
Without it, 1.6m people could die *per year*.
Without it, 1.6m people could die *per year*.
March 16, 2025 at 12:18 AM
Each dot represents 10 people whose lives depend on US foreign aid, just for HIV prevention & treatment.
Without it, 1.6m people could die *per year*.
Without it, 1.6m people could die *per year*.
Imagine knowing you are HIV+, treatment exists, but you have no hope of getting it.
*In Malawi circa 2004, that knowledge alone killed 20 percent of HIV+ people within 2 years.*
ARVs changed things.
USAID cuts could take us back to that kind of despair.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
*In Malawi circa 2004, that knowledge alone killed 20 percent of HIV+ people within 2 years.*
ARVs changed things.
USAID cuts could take us back to that kind of despair.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
February 28, 2025 at 3:19 AM
Imagine knowing you are HIV+, treatment exists, but you have no hope of getting it.
*In Malawi circa 2004, that knowledge alone killed 20 percent of HIV+ people within 2 years.*
ARVs changed things.
USAID cuts could take us back to that kind of despair.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
*In Malawi circa 2004, that knowledge alone killed 20 percent of HIV+ people within 2 years.*
ARVs changed things.
USAID cuts could take us back to that kind of despair.
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
USAID.gov is back, with a single announcement:
"On Friday, February 7, 2025, at 11:59 pm (EST) all USAID direct hire personnel will be placed on administrative leave globally"
"On Friday, February 7, 2025, at 11:59 pm (EST) all USAID direct hire personnel will be placed on administrative leave globally"
February 5, 2025 at 2:45 AM
USAID.gov is back, with a single announcement:
"On Friday, February 7, 2025, at 11:59 pm (EST) all USAID direct hire personnel will be placed on administrative leave globally"
"On Friday, February 7, 2025, at 11:59 pm (EST) all USAID direct hire personnel will be placed on administrative leave globally"
Economists: man, these endless appendices of robustness checks are getting absurd.
Epidemiologists: [post 30-page appendix explaining *authorship* of the paper]
Epidemiologists: [post 30-page appendix explaining *authorship* of the paper]
February 4, 2025 at 9:31 AM
Economists: man, these endless appendices of robustness checks are getting absurd.
Epidemiologists: [post 30-page appendix explaining *authorship* of the paper]
Epidemiologists: [post 30-page appendix explaining *authorship* of the paper]
Elon says 90% of US aid never reaches communities.
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
February 4, 2025 at 1:20 AM
Elon says 90% of US aid never reaches communities.
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
He confuses USAID's 90% reliance on intermediaries -- US companies delivering HIV drugs, WFP delivering food aid -- with waste. Comical if not so dangerous.
@rachelbonnifield.bsky.social & I break down where aid goes: www.cgdev.org/blog/no-90-p...
What does U.S. aid really pay for anyway?
1.5 million lives saved via Gavi, for one.
New in AEJ: Economic Policy
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
1.5 million lives saved via Gavi, for one.
New in AEJ: Economic Policy
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
February 2, 2025 at 1:10 AM
What does U.S. aid really pay for anyway?
1.5 million lives saved via Gavi, for one.
New in AEJ: Economic Policy
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
1.5 million lives saved via Gavi, for one.
New in AEJ: Economic Policy
www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=...
Millions of lives saved. And now the PEPFAR data website is no more. See for yourself:
data.pepfar.gov
Ironically, the original landmark JAMA study showing PEPFAR was turning the tide on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic was coauthored by...
Jay Bhattacharya, Trump's pick to run NIH.
data.pepfar.gov
Ironically, the original landmark JAMA study showing PEPFAR was turning the tide on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic was coauthored by...
Jay Bhattacharya, Trump's pick to run NIH.
January 28, 2025 at 2:29 AM
Millions of lives saved. And now the PEPFAR data website is no more. See for yourself:
data.pepfar.gov
Ironically, the original landmark JAMA study showing PEPFAR was turning the tide on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic was coauthored by...
Jay Bhattacharya, Trump's pick to run NIH.
data.pepfar.gov
Ironically, the original landmark JAMA study showing PEPFAR was turning the tide on the global HIV/AIDS epidemic was coauthored by...
Jay Bhattacharya, Trump's pick to run NIH.
Krugman on Pettis and the "new view" of trade
(slides + video)
"I don't think that this is actually MAGA. but it's... more MAGA-friendly than what you usually hear from int'l economists... It's not unadulterated nonsense. It's adulterated nonsense."
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/rethinking...
(slides + video)
"I don't think that this is actually MAGA. but it's... more MAGA-friendly than what you usually hear from int'l economists... It's not unadulterated nonsense. It's adulterated nonsense."
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/rethinking...
January 27, 2025 at 8:44 AM
Krugman on Pettis and the "new view" of trade
(slides + video)
"I don't think that this is actually MAGA. but it's... more MAGA-friendly than what you usually hear from int'l economists... It's not unadulterated nonsense. It's adulterated nonsense."
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/rethinking...
(slides + video)
"I don't think that this is actually MAGA. but it's... more MAGA-friendly than what you usually hear from int'l economists... It's not unadulterated nonsense. It's adulterated nonsense."
paulkrugman.substack.com/p/rethinking...
The Andrew Tate-ification of USAID
DEI activities which are now banned and subject to disciplinary action, include "work on ending gender-based violence."
www.devex.com/news/scoop-u...
DEI activities which are now banned and subject to disciplinary action, include "work on ending gender-based violence."
www.devex.com/news/scoop-u...
January 27, 2025 at 12:19 AM
The Andrew Tate-ification of USAID
DEI activities which are now banned and subject to disciplinary action, include "work on ending gender-based violence."
www.devex.com/news/scoop-u...
DEI activities which are now banned and subject to disciplinary action, include "work on ending gender-based violence."
www.devex.com/news/scoop-u...
Trump has not just paused new foreign aid. Today Marco Rubio sent a cable to all US diplomatic missions calling for immediate “stop work” orders on *existing* projects.
This is sweeping and reckless. People are going to die.
This is sweeping and reckless. People are going to die.
January 25, 2025 at 12:30 AM
Trump has not just paused new foreign aid. Today Marco Rubio sent a cable to all US diplomatic missions calling for immediate “stop work” orders on *existing* projects.
This is sweeping and reckless. People are going to die.
This is sweeping and reckless. People are going to die.
Diff-in-diff in a panel of African countries...
Decriminalizing abortion appears to reduce fertility and child mortality, and lead women to stay in school longer.
custom.cvent.com/4E741122FD8B...
Decriminalizing abortion appears to reduce fertility and child mortality, and lead women to stay in school longer.
custom.cvent.com/4E741122FD8B...
January 23, 2025 at 12:52 PM
Diff-in-diff in a panel of African countries...
Decriminalizing abortion appears to reduce fertility and child mortality, and lead women to stay in school longer.
custom.cvent.com/4E741122FD8B...
Decriminalizing abortion appears to reduce fertility and child mortality, and lead women to stay in school longer.
custom.cvent.com/4E741122FD8B...
Cool RCT in Cote d'Ivoire 🇨🇮:
Should developing countries build new preschools or try to improve their primary schools? The Ivorian Min of Ed to tried both. Surprisingly similar results in terms of learning effect sizes (0.23 sd), albeit for different age groups.
custom.cvent.com/4E741122FD8B...
Should developing countries build new preschools or try to improve their primary schools? The Ivorian Min of Ed to tried both. Surprisingly similar results in terms of learning effect sizes (0.23 sd), albeit for different age groups.
custom.cvent.com/4E741122FD8B...
January 23, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Cool RCT in Cote d'Ivoire 🇨🇮:
Should developing countries build new preschools or try to improve their primary schools? The Ivorian Min of Ed to tried both. Surprisingly similar results in terms of learning effect sizes (0.23 sd), albeit for different age groups.
custom.cvent.com/4E741122FD8B...
Should developing countries build new preschools or try to improve their primary schools? The Ivorian Min of Ed to tried both. Surprisingly similar results in terms of learning effect sizes (0.23 sd), albeit for different age groups.
custom.cvent.com/4E741122FD8B...
You: "China is the biggest national security threat to the US."
Me: "Maybe. But United airlines will still fly me to Beijing, while carefully navigating around Russian airspace. Just saying."
Me: "Maybe. But United airlines will still fly me to Beijing, while carefully navigating around Russian airspace. Just saying."
January 22, 2025 at 2:26 AM
You: "China is the biggest national security threat to the US."
Me: "Maybe. But United airlines will still fly me to Beijing, while carefully navigating around Russian airspace. Just saying."
Me: "Maybe. But United airlines will still fly me to Beijing, while carefully navigating around Russian airspace. Just saying."
Today, reacting to our paper, GSK made a slightly different argument: governments should buy GSK's more expensive vaccine to ensure a backup exists.
This argument is a bit harder to evaluate. Curious if ppl know of analogous cases -- where governments overpay to keep multiple players in the market.
This argument is a bit harder to evaluate. Curious if ppl know of analogous cases -- where governments overpay to keep multiple players in the market.
January 8, 2025 at 2:44 AM
Today, reacting to our paper, GSK made a slightly different argument: governments should buy GSK's more expensive vaccine to ensure a backup exists.
This argument is a bit harder to evaluate. Curious if ppl know of analogous cases -- where governments overpay to keep multiple players in the market.
This argument is a bit harder to evaluate. Curious if ppl know of analogous cases -- where governments overpay to keep multiple players in the market.
That's essentially the situation with the two malaria vaccines that began routine administration this year, RTS,S and R21. In our recent paper, my coauthors and I argue the fairly straightforward case that donors should prioritize the cheaper R21:
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
January 8, 2025 at 2:33 AM
That's essentially the situation with the two malaria vaccines that began routine administration this year, RTS,S and R21. In our recent paper, my coauthors and I argue the fairly straightforward case that donors should prioritize the cheaper R21:
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
www.cgdev.org/publication/...
New post on findings from our @cgdev.org survey of global education policymakers:
Everyone loves girls' schooling.
Not everyone loves women working.
(also, WTF Nigeria?)
www.cgdev.org/blog/do-poli...
Everyone loves girls' schooling.
Not everyone loves women working.
(also, WTF Nigeria?)
www.cgdev.org/blog/do-poli...
January 7, 2025 at 8:51 PM
New post on findings from our @cgdev.org survey of global education policymakers:
Everyone loves girls' schooling.
Not everyone loves women working.
(also, WTF Nigeria?)
www.cgdev.org/blog/do-poli...
Everyone loves girls' schooling.
Not everyone loves women working.
(also, WTF Nigeria?)
www.cgdev.org/blog/do-poli...
December 22, 2024 at 6:07 PM