Justin the Seer
@justintheseer.bsky.social
A free-range social scientist using social theories to uncover systematic patterns
https://www.linkedin.com/company/curmi-consulting
https://www.linkedin.com/company/curmi-consulting
Like finding a naked Charizard Cheeto on your 10000000000000 Cheeto, authentic multilateralism has shown some fight this week
🇺🇸's far-right is spreading like the ultra-processed American diet, yet 🇬🇧’s anti-immigrant purge will lead to Brexit 2 📉
CRINK 👉🏻 substack.com/@apapiermach...
Journal entry:
🇺🇸's far-right is spreading like the ultra-processed American diet, yet 🇬🇧’s anti-immigrant purge will lead to Brexit 2 📉
CRINK 👉🏻 substack.com/@apapiermach...
Journal entry:
November 28, 2025 at 11:35 PM
Like finding a naked Charizard Cheeto on your 10000000000000 Cheeto, authentic multilateralism has shown some fight this week
🇺🇸's far-right is spreading like the ultra-processed American diet, yet 🇬🇧’s anti-immigrant purge will lead to Brexit 2 📉
CRINK 👉🏻 substack.com/@apapiermach...
Journal entry:
🇺🇸's far-right is spreading like the ultra-processed American diet, yet 🇬🇧’s anti-immigrant purge will lead to Brexit 2 📉
CRINK 👉🏻 substack.com/@apapiermach...
Journal entry:
With India being courted by the Inkwell and Rapid Rubber Stampers, the post below came to mind
November 28, 2025 at 8:16 PM
With India being courted by the Inkwell and Rapid Rubber Stampers, the post below came to mind
A thought to share this Thanksgiving
November 27, 2025 at 1:41 AM
A thought to share this Thanksgiving
Questions
1. Isn’t it a little odd that two different reports allude to Russia having naughty stuff on Trump?
2. What will happen if Russia rejoins the economic system of the inkwell or the West as China becomes more assertive?
3. How about those Rapid Rubber Stampers or CRINK commitments?
1. Isn’t it a little odd that two different reports allude to Russia having naughty stuff on Trump?
2. What will happen if Russia rejoins the economic system of the inkwell or the West as China becomes more assertive?
3. How about those Rapid Rubber Stampers or CRINK commitments?
November 22, 2025 at 1:56 AM
Questions
1. Isn’t it a little odd that two different reports allude to Russia having naughty stuff on Trump?
2. What will happen if Russia rejoins the economic system of the inkwell or the West as China becomes more assertive?
3. How about those Rapid Rubber Stampers or CRINK commitments?
1. Isn’t it a little odd that two different reports allude to Russia having naughty stuff on Trump?
2. What will happen if Russia rejoins the economic system of the inkwell or the West as China becomes more assertive?
3. How about those Rapid Rubber Stampers or CRINK commitments?
Here is an update on the seven major themes shaping our history:
1. Boardroom-stylized conflicts
2. Cyberspace conflicts
3. Tropicalization
4. Global South rumbles
5. Ideological rifts
6. Cultural existential crisis
7. Nu Industrial Revolution
1. Boardroom-stylized conflicts
2. Cyberspace conflicts
3. Tropicalization
4. Global South rumbles
5. Ideological rifts
6. Cultural existential crisis
7. Nu Industrial Revolution
November 21, 2025 at 12:47 AM
Here is an update on the seven major themes shaping our history:
1. Boardroom-stylized conflicts
2. Cyberspace conflicts
3. Tropicalization
4. Global South rumbles
5. Ideological rifts
6. Cultural existential crisis
7. Nu Industrial Revolution
1. Boardroom-stylized conflicts
2. Cyberspace conflicts
3. Tropicalization
4. Global South rumbles
5. Ideological rifts
6. Cultural existential crisis
7. Nu Industrial Revolution
I have been getting the sense that the CCP has been on a Fake It Till You Make It binge for some time.
This statement should not minimize their achievements, but the signs of a debt splurge since 2014 are alarming.
Hopefully, all the CapEx pays off the debt load and doesn’t stir strong pushback.
This statement should not minimize their achievements, but the signs of a debt splurge since 2014 are alarming.
Hopefully, all the CapEx pays off the debt load and doesn’t stir strong pushback.
November 14, 2025 at 9:25 PM
I have been getting the sense that the CCP has been on a Fake It Till You Make It binge for some time.
This statement should not minimize their achievements, but the signs of a debt splurge since 2014 are alarming.
Hopefully, all the CapEx pays off the debt load and doesn’t stir strong pushback.
This statement should not minimize their achievements, but the signs of a debt splurge since 2014 are alarming.
Hopefully, all the CapEx pays off the debt load and doesn’t stir strong pushback.
A year from the November 2024 Presidential Election, and nothing on the continual infringement of the Oath of Office of the President of the United States. Article II, Section One, Clause 8, of the United States Constitution, or the good faith clause, is under attack by Donald Trump.
November 9, 2025 at 6:47 PM
A year from the November 2024 Presidential Election, and nothing on the continual infringement of the Oath of Office of the President of the United States. Article II, Section One, Clause 8, of the United States Constitution, or the good faith clause, is under attack by Donald Trump.
My final year-end review is on tech and what it is bringing:
November 7, 2025 at 6:14 PM
My final year-end review is on tech and what it is bringing:
A year-end review of some significant ideological shifts I noticed:
November 7, 2025 at 6:12 PM
A year-end review of some significant ideological shifts I noticed:
As the new year nears, here are some posts on historical moments to keep an eye on:
November 7, 2025 at 6:09 PM
As the new year nears, here are some posts on historical moments to keep an eye on:
A year into the new administration in the US, and here are some forward-looking estimates and commentaries about it:
November 7, 2025 at 6:00 PM
A year into the new administration in the US, and here are some forward-looking estimates and commentaries about it:
Recent updates on China’s economy indicate that between February and April 2026, financial troubles will balloon. The updates suggest a manufacturing crisis and areas unable to bear the burden of debt loads.
A brief on my forecasts on China and the method:
A brief on my forecasts on China and the method:
China's Forecast by Curmi Consulting
justincurmiportfolio.my.canva.site
November 4, 2025 at 2:30 AM
Recent updates on China’s economy indicate that between February and April 2026, financial troubles will balloon. The updates suggest a manufacturing crisis and areas unable to bear the burden of debt loads.
A brief on my forecasts on China and the method:
A brief on my forecasts on China and the method:
Two events and a recent show this week remind me of an article I wrote on the rise of the Newest New Far-Right, a variant of biblical proportions:
1. Trump’s encouragement of Nigerian Christian Fundamentalists could cause a disaster
2. J.D. Vance Bible-thumps wife, again
3. The Family on Netflix
1. Trump’s encouragement of Nigerian Christian Fundamentalists could cause a disaster
2. J.D. Vance Bible-thumps wife, again
3. The Family on Netflix
A Fifty-Five-Year March
A few months ago, I alluded to a troubling US political trend that started in 1970 and climaxed with Trump’s presidency—a fifty-five-year march toward the far right by a subsection of the conservative...
www.linkedin.com
November 1, 2025 at 8:00 PM
Two events and a recent show this week remind me of an article I wrote on the rise of the Newest New Far-Right, a variant of biblical proportions:
1. Trump’s encouragement of Nigerian Christian Fundamentalists could cause a disaster
2. J.D. Vance Bible-thumps wife, again
3. The Family on Netflix
1. Trump’s encouragement of Nigerian Christian Fundamentalists could cause a disaster
2. J.D. Vance Bible-thumps wife, again
3. The Family on Netflix
The bestowing of monarchal cultural artifacts on Donald Trump will cause an inescapable euphoric high, which he will become addicted to.
The metaphoric nuclear reactor core is heating up. Will American Democracy withstand its pop?
The metaphoric nuclear reactor core is heating up. Will American Democracy withstand its pop?
October 31, 2025 at 5:19 AM
The bestowing of monarchal cultural artifacts on Donald Trump will cause an inescapable euphoric high, which he will become addicted to.
The metaphoric nuclear reactor core is heating up. Will American Democracy withstand its pop?
The metaphoric nuclear reactor core is heating up. Will American Democracy withstand its pop?
Trump’s military build-up along Central and South America, and his urge to help the Right in those regions, reminded me of some estimates, below. It seems like an open play at pushing the South rightward, repeating an old American tendency. Is this another hint of the Frost Bite Wars?
October 24, 2025 at 11:40 PM
Trump’s military build-up along Central and South America, and his urge to help the Right in those regions, reminded me of some estimates, below. It seems like an open play at pushing the South rightward, repeating an old American tendency. Is this another hint of the Frost Bite Wars?
I want to call attention to this post because Russia’s oligarchs have grown angrier due to the economic issues rising in the country, Australia is on a mad dash to build alliances, Africa has been feeling socioeconomic tremors, & eyes have been moving toward the EU as people wonder about its future.
🗺️🗞️
The ice has cracked and Russia is afloat, but still oddly bargains hard, even when its economy is on the brink and the Russian oligarchs' concerns mount
China keeps stirring concerns in the Indo-Pacific region, which makes Australia prepare the area
Africa still senses The Big One
Eyes on EU
The ice has cracked and Russia is afloat, but still oddly bargains hard, even when its economy is on the brink and the Russian oligarchs' concerns mount
China keeps stirring concerns in the Indo-Pacific region, which makes Australia prepare the area
Africa still senses The Big One
Eyes on EU
October 19, 2025 at 5:59 PM
I want to call attention to this post because Russia’s oligarchs have grown angrier due to the economic issues rising in the country, Australia is on a mad dash to build alliances, Africa has been feeling socioeconomic tremors, & eyes have been moving toward the EU as people wonder about its future.
These seven trends are still going strong, and I have listed them in the order of events reported in the past few weeks:
1. Boardroom-stylized conflicts
2. Cyberspace conflicts
3. Tropicalization
4. Ideological rifts
5. Cultural existential crisis
6. Nu Industrial Revolution
7. Global South rumbles
1. Boardroom-stylized conflicts
2. Cyberspace conflicts
3. Tropicalization
4. Ideological rifts
5. Cultural existential crisis
6. Nu Industrial Revolution
7. Global South rumbles
October 19, 2025 at 5:52 PM
These seven trends are still going strong, and I have listed them in the order of events reported in the past few weeks:
1. Boardroom-stylized conflicts
2. Cyberspace conflicts
3. Tropicalization
4. Ideological rifts
5. Cultural existential crisis
6. Nu Industrial Revolution
7. Global South rumbles
1. Boardroom-stylized conflicts
2. Cyberspace conflicts
3. Tropicalization
4. Ideological rifts
5. Cultural existential crisis
6. Nu Industrial Revolution
7. Global South rumbles
Private credit cash pivots from 'risky' West to emerging markets
+
Emerging market portfolio inflows drop to $26 billion, lowest level since May, IIF says
———————
Two Reuters articles allude to conflicting thoughts in the EM space. Who made the miscalculation? My bet is on private credit
+
Emerging market portfolio inflows drop to $26 billion, lowest level since May, IIF says
———————
Two Reuters articles allude to conflicting thoughts in the EM space. Who made the miscalculation? My bet is on private credit
October 9, 2025 at 12:52 AM
Private credit cash pivots from 'risky' West to emerging markets
+
Emerging market portfolio inflows drop to $26 billion, lowest level since May, IIF says
———————
Two Reuters articles allude to conflicting thoughts in the EM space. Who made the miscalculation? My bet is on private credit
+
Emerging market portfolio inflows drop to $26 billion, lowest level since May, IIF says
———————
Two Reuters articles allude to conflicting thoughts in the EM space. Who made the miscalculation? My bet is on private credit
I wrote an essay 9 years ago that explores the variables that produce the present US experience. Below is the 4D matrix of the current situation:
↔️ Gilded Conservatism
↕️ Authoritarian Corporatism
🔁 Gate-kept Collectivism
⏳ 1970s to Present
↔️ Gilded Conservatism
↕️ Authoritarian Corporatism
🔁 Gate-kept Collectivism
⏳ 1970s to Present
TRUMPet, A Call To Fear
After a reflection on the trajectory of themes and messages circulating in the means of communication, it has become evident that the Republican Party is shifting on some ideologies, which is caused b...
www.huffpost.com
October 3, 2025 at 1:46 AM
I wrote an essay 9 years ago that explores the variables that produce the present US experience. Below is the 4D matrix of the current situation:
↔️ Gilded Conservatism
↕️ Authoritarian Corporatism
🔁 Gate-kept Collectivism
⏳ 1970s to Present
↔️ Gilded Conservatism
↕️ Authoritarian Corporatism
🔁 Gate-kept Collectivism
⏳ 1970s to Present
I have seen a lot of articles about how there is no evidence that TikTok was used for malicious activity, but let us not forget the journalist issue.
TikTok admits using its app to spy on reporters in effort to track leaks
Chinese parent company, ByteDance says four employees, based in both US and China, have been fired
www.theguardian.com
September 22, 2025 at 8:48 PM
I have seen a lot of articles about how there is no evidence that TikTok was used for malicious activity, but let us not forget the journalist issue.
Past estimates for the 2025 UN General Assembly have become very evident
September 22, 2025 at 5:12 PM
Past estimates for the 2025 UN General Assembly have become very evident
An August 2017 essay from my Huffington Post column that captures Donald Trump and his end goals, which are clearer in his second time at the helm.
Trump the Perfect Iconic President
Trump the Perfect Iconic President
www.huffpost.com
September 20, 2025 at 4:08 PM
An August 2017 essay from my Huffington Post column that captures Donald Trump and his end goals, which are clearer in his second time at the helm.
Trump continually seems to find ways to talk to dictators in private to avoid public scrutiny. The little attention this has stirred within the media, public, and elected officials is alarming.
Will the next chance be with Xi at the Oct 31 APEC summit? What will be said?
Will the next chance be with Xi at the Oct 31 APEC summit? What will be said?
Trump, Putin Share Limo Ride to Alaska Meeting
YouTube video by Bloomberg News
youtu.be
September 19, 2025 at 9:43 PM
Trump continually seems to find ways to talk to dictators in private to avoid public scrutiny. The little attention this has stirred within the media, public, and elected officials is alarming.
Will the next chance be with Xi at the Oct 31 APEC summit? What will be said?
Will the next chance be with Xi at the Oct 31 APEC summit? What will be said?
A successful set of observations from May 2025, below. I bring this to your attention because of the top observation.
Since May 2025, Israel has become more aggressive, which leads me to my concern: the odds of a Jewish theocracy forming mount by the day.
Since May 2025, Israel has become more aggressive, which leads me to my concern: the odds of a Jewish theocracy forming mount by the day.
September 16, 2025 at 11:48 PM
A successful set of observations from May 2025, below. I bring this to your attention because of the top observation.
Since May 2025, Israel has become more aggressive, which leads me to my concern: the odds of a Jewish theocracy forming mount by the day.
Since May 2025, Israel has become more aggressive, which leads me to my concern: the odds of a Jewish theocracy forming mount by the day.
“The Middle-aged Are No Longer the Most Miserable” by The Economist reminds me of cultural estimates from 2023.
It is hard to imagine the trend ending anytime soon as economic and political trends nosedive into a hostile ecosystem.
It is hard to imagine the trend ending anytime soon as economic and political trends nosedive into a hostile ecosystem.
September 7, 2025 at 7:19 PM
“The Middle-aged Are No Longer the Most Miserable” by The Economist reminds me of cultural estimates from 2023.
It is hard to imagine the trend ending anytime soon as economic and political trends nosedive into a hostile ecosystem.
It is hard to imagine the trend ending anytime soon as economic and political trends nosedive into a hostile ecosystem.