Ilkka Rauvola
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jukka235.bsky.social
Ilkka Rauvola
@jukka235.bsky.social
1.4K followers 940 following 12K posts
Covid-19. In God we trust, all others must bring data.
X: @jukka235 or https://x.com/jukka235
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jukka235.bsky.social
Finnish C nasal vaccine is progressing. Rokote Laboratories Finland.

is.fi/taloussanoma...
November 17, 2025 at 6:05 AM
jukka235.bsky.social
Intellectual disabilities among 7-14 year olds are showing meaningful growth. The total is expected to reach 1% of 7-14 year old population by 2030 and 10% of population by 2048, if current growth continues.
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November 12, 2025 at 3:10 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Here is the IQ table for various intellectual disabilities, according to ChatGPT.
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November 12, 2025 at 11:46 AM
jukka235.bsky.social
Among 7-14 year olds, intellectual disabilities (IDs) showing highest patient growth are
- severe IDs (IQ 20-34): 19.2% growth (10x in 13 years)
- unspecified IDs: 18.4% patient growth 18.4% (10x in 14y)
- profound IDs (IQ <20): 16.6% (10x in 15y)
- moderate IDs (IQ 35-49)
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November 12, 2025 at 11:45 AM
jukka235.bsky.social
Among 0-6 year olds, the following are showing fastest patient growth:
- unspecified intellectual disabilities (F79): 19.2% average growth (10x in 13 years)
- severe intellectual disabilities (F72): 16.3% average growth (10x in 15 years)
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November 11, 2025 at 10:27 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
7-14 and 15-24 year olds are showing the highest levels of intellectual disability. If current growth rates continue, 5 percent of 7-14 and 15-24 year olds will have an intellectual disability diagnosis by 2048 (24 years from now).
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November 11, 2025 at 9:29 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
The rise in intellectual disability among <1 year olds also shows in number of diagnoses: up roughly 11 times in 4 years. Also note the rise among 1-6 year olds.
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November 11, 2025 at 9:16 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Intellectual disabilities (F70-F79): <1 year olds are leading in terms of y/y growth. Ten percent of <1 year olds will have an intellectual disability diagnosis in 14 year's time (2039), if current growth rates continue.
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November 11, 2025 at 9:05 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
All age groups are showing fairly uniform growth rates. In other words, Finland’s entire population will be affected by specific developmental disorders of speech and language if current growth rates continue.
Chart showing estimated annual patient rates for specific developmental disorders of speech and language (ICD-10 F80) in Finland, 2018–2032e. The blue line for children aged 1–6 years rises steeply from 0.45 % in 2022 to about 1.38 % by 2025, showing the fastest growth of any age group. The 7–14 age group also increases, reaching 0.55 %. Young adults aged 15–24 show a slower but steady climb to 0.19 %. All other age groups — from 25 years upward — remain low, under 0.03 %. The overall total for the population reaches about 0.15 % in 2025. Overall message: developmental speech and language disorders are increasing rapidly among Finnish children, especially those under 7 years old, with a persistent upward trend since 2021. Source: THL Avohilmo (@jukka235.bsky.social).
November 3, 2025 at 10:31 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
In 20 years, 50 percent of 1-6 year olds, 20 percent of 7-14 year olds, and 10 percent of 15-24 year olds will have specific developmental disorders of speech and language, if current growth rates continue.
Chart showing estimated annual patient rates for specific developmental disorders of speech and language (ICD-10 F80) in Finland, 2018–2032e. The blue line for children aged 1–6 years rises steeply from 0.45 % in 2022 to about 1.38 % by 2025 — the largest increase of any age group. The 7–14 age group follows at 0.55 %, and the 15–24 group shows a smaller but steady climb to 0.19 %. Older age groups remain almost flat, with rates below 0.03 %. The total population average reaches 0.15 % in 2025. Overall message: speech and language developmental disorders are rising sharply among Finnish children, especially in the youngest age group, with rates tripling since 2020. Source: THL Avohilmo (@jukka235.bsky.social).
November 3, 2025 at 9:28 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
1-6 year olds / Diseases of the eye and adnexa (the tissues and organs around and supporting the eyeball) (H00-H59): visual disturbances and blindness are showing most significant patient growth.
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Chart showing estimated annual patient rates for eye-related diseases (H00–H59) among Finnish children aged 1–6 years, 2018–2032e. The top black line shows visual disturbances and blindness (H53–H54), rising steadily from 0.12 % in 2020 to about 0.18 % by 2025. Below it, other disorders of the eye and adnexa (H55–H59) increase from 0.03 % to 0.085 %, and sclera, cornea, and iris disorders (H15–H22) climb from 0.05 % to 0.065 %. All three show clear upward momentum since 2021. Minor categories — glaucoma (H40–H42), vitreous body disorders (H43–H45), and optic nerve or visual pathway disorders (H46–H48) — remain near 0.002 %. Overall message: eye-related diagnoses among preschool children are rising steadily, with visual disturbances and blindness showing the sharpest increase. Source: THL Avohilmo (@jukka235.bsky.social).
November 3, 2025 at 4:48 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Something's wrong with our little baby boys.
Chart showing the estimated monthly share of Finnish patients with undescended testicle (ICD-10 Q53), 2018–2025e. The main red line represents total cases, remaining stable at around 0.2–0.25 % of boys through 2018–2023. In 2024, rates begin to climb rapidly, reaching 0.4 % by early 2025. The forecast (dashed section) suggests the level will stay near 0.42 % through 2026. Smaller blue and red lines below show age groups 1–6 years and 7–14 years, both flat around 0.03–0.05 %. Overall message: after years of steady incidence, undescended testicle diagnoses appear to have roughly doubled since 2023, stabilising at historically high levels. Source: THL Avohilmo (@jukka235).
November 3, 2025 at 8:32 AM
jukka235.bsky.social
Indeed, patient numbers among children under 1 year old with congenital malformations of the eye and adnexa appear to be increasing.
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November 2, 2025 at 10:53 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Something is wrong with infants.
Chart showing the estimated monthly share of Finnish patients with congenital malformations of great arteries (ICD-10 Q25), 2018–2025e. For several years, rates stayed flat around 0.005 % of the population, with only minor monthly variation. Starting in 2024, however, the curve rises sharply — passing 0.01 % by mid-2025 and accelerating steeply to about 0.21 % in the projection for late 2025. All other age-group lines remain close to zero, far below the dominant red line representing total cases. The message: after years of stability, recorded Q25 cases have surged dramatically in 2024–2025 according to THL Avohilmo data (@jukka235).
November 2, 2025 at 8:14 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Among <1 year olds, it is mainly Other disorders of eye and adnexa (H57) that is responsible for growth in patient numbers in H55-H59. I will check congenital malformations next.
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Chart showing cumulative growth of selected eye disorders (H22–H59) among Finnish infants under one year old, 2018–2032e, with 2020 set as the baseline (2020 = 1). Three diagnostic groups are shown. “Other disorders of eye and adnexa” (H57) rise dramatically after 2022, reaching roughly 3× the 2020 level by 2025 — the fastest growth among all. “Other strabismus” (H50) increases more moderately to about 1.5×, while “Nystagmus and other irregular eye movements” (H55) dips slightly after 2024 to 0.8×. Overall message: since 2021, eye-movement and alignment disorders in newborns have diverged sharply — with rare residual eye conditions surging far faster than strabismus or nystagmus. Source: THL Avohilmo (@jukka235).
November 2, 2025 at 8:04 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Among <1 year olds, the subgroup showing fastest patient growth is Other disorders of eye and adnexa (H55-H59), with 21.2% average y/y growth in 2020-2025e, set to reach 10% of <1 population in 22 years at current growth rate.
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chatgpt.com/share/690760...
Chart showing cumulative growth in eye-related diseases (H00–H59) among Finnish infants under one year old, indexed to 2020 = 1. All major categories rise steeply after 2021. “Other disorders of eye and adnexa” (H55–H59) show the fastest increase, reaching 2.6× the 2020 level by 2025. Disorders of the conjunctiva (H10–H13) grow about 2.1×, and the total eye and adnexa group (H00–H59) nearly 2×. Sclera, cornea, and iris disorders (H15–H22) surge early, peaking around 3.5× in 2023 before settling near 1.8×. Eyelid and orbit disorders (H00–H06) reach 1.66×, and ocular muscle or accommodation disorders (H49–H52) 1.48×. Overall message: since the 2020 baseline, infant eye conditions have multiplied across all categories, with the fastest relative growth in rare or residual disorder groups. Source: thl.fi Avohilmo (@jukka235).
November 2, 2025 at 1:54 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Here is ChatGPT's view.
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chatgpt.com/share/690753...
November 2, 2025 at 12:53 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
In an endemic, there needs to be a certain part of the population most likely to catch the disease so that others can be saved and live for longer. That's the role of the anti-vaxx.

(link below)
Tweet by Jean Fisch reads: “The healthy vaccinee effect runs deeper than we may think. This full national Danish study shows a huge effect remains even after correcting for age, sex, comorbidity, medical visits, and place of residence. The ‘unvaccinated by choice’ test less (and die earlier).” Below is an image showing multiple small charts titled “Testing / Diagnoses and Mortality Incidence among 60–90 Vaccinated and Unvaccinated in Denmark.” The graphs compare vaccinated vs. unvaccinated groups for test frequency, diagnoses, and mortality. Vaccinated people test and get screened more often and have lower mortality rates, while unvaccinated groups show flatter lines for testing and steeper curves for death. Source cited: Danish Health Registry Study.
November 2, 2025 at 12:47 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Among <1 year olds, patient counts for disorders of conjunctiva (H10-H13) are growing at a 20.7% average rate since 2020. At this rate, the share of all <1 year olds having this diagnosis is set to reach 10% level in 5 years and a 50% level by 2039 (in 14 years).
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chatgpt.com/share/690747...
Chart showing eye-related diseases (H00–H59) among infants under one year old in Finland, 2018–2032e. After a dip around 2020–2021, the total rate begins climbing steadily, reaching about 5.3 % by 2025. The largest share comes from disorders of the conjunctiva (H10–H13), including conjunctivitis and related conditions, now nearing 3.8 %. Eyelid and orbit disorders (H00–H06) follow at 0.72 %, and ocular muscle or accommodation disorders (H49–H52) at 0.53 %. Other eye and adnexa disorders (H55–H59) rise to roughly 0.15 %, while sclera, cornea, and iris disorders (H15–H22) stay near 0.03 %. Visual disturbances and blindness (H53–H54) remain rare, around 0.01 %. Overall message: eye problems among newborns are rising sharply again after the pandemic lull, mostly driven by conjunctival and eyelid conditions. Source: THL Avohilmo (@jukka235).
November 2, 2025 at 12:22 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Glaucoma (H40-H42) is the only eye related disease subgroup that is not currently showing growth.
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Chart showing glaucoma (H40–H42) patient rates in Finland, 2018–2030e, as a share of each age group’s population. The disease is strongly age-linked: the 85+ group has by far the highest rate, around 1.35 % in 2025, while the 75–84 group stands near 0.45 %. Rates for ages 65–74 (~0.18 %) and 50–64 (~0.05 %) are lower but still trending upward. Younger groups—25–49, 15–24, and 7–14 years—show extremely low levels under 0.01 %, though most curves edge slightly higher after 2021. The overall total reaches 0.11 % of the population in 2025. Data source: THL Avohilmo database (@jukka235). Overall message: glaucoma remains predominantly a disease of older adults but has been slowly decreasing during 2024-2025e.
November 2, 2025 at 11:04 AM
jukka235.bsky.social
Among total population, almost all subsegments of eye related diseases are showing patient growth. With one notable exception: Glaucoma (H40-H42).
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Chart showing how eye-related diseases in Finland have risen sharply since 2021. The total group (H00–H59) climbs toward 2.6 % of the population by 2025, continuing upward thereafter. The steepest growth comes from conjunctiva disorders (H10–H13), now about 0.9 %, followed by eyelid and orbit disorders (0.54 %) and visual disturbances or blindness (0.27 %). Smaller but steady increases appear in retina, sclera, iris, glaucoma and lens disorders, all under 0.15 %. Optic-nerve and visual-pathway diseases (H46–H48) remain rare but are trending upward from 2023. Data span 2018–2032e, based on THL Avohilmo outpatient records. Overall message: eye-related conditions are becoming markedly more common across Finland. Kaavio osoittaa, että silmäsairaudet ovat Suomessa nousussa vuoden 2021 jälkeen. Kokonaisryhmä (H00–H59) kasvaa noin 2,6 %:iin väestöstä vuoteen 2025 mennessä ja jatkaa nousuaan. Nopeinta kasvu on sidekalvon sairauksissa (H10–H13, n. 0,9 %), luomen ja silmäkuopan sairauksissa (0,54 %) sekä näköhäiriöissä ja sokeudessa (0,27 %). Myös verkkokalvon, kovakalvon, värikalvon, glaukooman ja linssin häiriöt lisääntyvät hitaasti, alle 0,15 % tasolla. Näköhermon ja näköreittien sairaudet (H46–H48) pysyvät harvinaisina, mutta nousevat vuodesta 2023 alkaen. Aineisto kattaa vuodet 2018–2032e, lähteenä THL Avohilmo. Yhteenveto: silmäsairaudet yleistyvät selvästi suomalaisväestössä.
November 2, 2025 at 10:51 AM
jukka235.bsky.social
The following areas show strongest patient growth in total population:
- H49-H52 disorders of ocular muscles, binocular movement, accommodation and refraction (20.9% average growth, or 10x in ln(10)/ln(1.209) = 12 years)
-H46-48 disorders of optic nerve and visual pathways (19% per year)
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Finland — Cumulative growth of patients (% of population per year, 2020 = 1) for eye and adnexa diseases (H00–H59) in public outpatient care, 2018–2030e (THL Avohilmo). Patient numbers have risen sharply since 2020. Fastest growth: H49–H52 Disorders of ocular muscles and refraction (+159%), H46–H48 Optic nerve & visual pathway disorders (+138%), and H30–H36 Choroid & retina (+116%). Visual disturbances (H53–H54) and other eye/adnexa disorders (H55–H59) also exceed 2× 2020 levels. Eyelid/orbit (H00–H06) and sclera/cornea (H15–H22) grow more moderately. Overall total ≈ 1.7× 2020. Finland — Cumulative growth of patients (% of population per year, 2019 = 1) for Diseases of the eye and adnexa (H00–H59) in public outpatient healthcare, 2018–2030e (THL Avohilmo). Since 2020, most eye-related disease categories show steady increases. Fastest growth by 2025e: H49–H52 Ocular muscle & refraction disorders (2.20×) and H30–H36 Choroid & retina (2.20×), followed by H53–H54 Visual disturbances (2.01×) and H55–H59 Other eye/adnexa disorders (2.01×). Slower growth in H10–H13 Conjunctiva (1.05×) and H00–H06 Eyelid/orbit (1.25×). Overall total ≈ 1.35× 2019.
November 2, 2025 at 10:01 AM
jukka235.bsky.social
Cumulative patient growth since 2019 and corresponding average annual rates (to 2025e):
- total population: +63 % (10.5 % per year)
- ages 15–24: +115 % (16.5 % per year, or 10x in 15 years)
- under 1 year olds: +89 % (13.4 % per year, or 10x in 18 years)
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Finland — Cumulative growth of patients (% of population per year, 2019 = 1) for Diseases of the eye and adnexa (H00–H59) in public outpatient healthcare, 2018–2030e (THL Avohilmo). After a pandemic-era dip in 2020–2021, patient numbers have risen steadily. By 2025e, total growth reaches 1.29× 2019 levels. 85+ shows the strongest increase (1.83×), followed by 15–24 y (1.61×) and 75–84 y (1.35×). Younger children (0–6 y) recover more slowly (≈1.0×). All age groups show continued upward trend in projections.
November 1, 2025 at 8:46 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Diseases of the eye and adnexa (the tissues and organs around and supporting the eyeball) (H00-H59): under 7 year olds are showing the most significant patient growth.
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Finland — Estimated number of patients (% of population per year) for Diseases of the eye and adnexa (H00–H59) in public outpatient care, 2018–2030e (THL Avohilmo). Patient rates rise strongly across all ages after 2022. Infants (age 0) and 1–6-year-olds show the steepest increases, reaching about 5.0% and 4.3% in 2025e, respectively — the highest of any group. Older adults (75–84 and 85+) also climb steadily, while working-age groups (25–64) remain below 2%. Total prevalence grows from ~1.5% in 2021 to 2.4% in 2025e, with projections assuming continued year-on-year growth.
November 1, 2025 at 7:56 PM
jukka235.bsky.social
Other disorders of optic [2nd cranial] nerve and visual pathways (H47) are showing meaningful growth in patients: 48% in 2024 and 20% in 2025e.
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chatgpt.com/share/690503...
Line chart showing estimated patient rates in Finland (2018–2030e) for Other disorders of optic [2nd] nerve and visual pathways (H47), based on THL Avohilmo data. Vertical axis: percent of each age group’s population per year (log scale). The highest growth is seen in older age groups—especially ages 75–84 and 85+, both rising sharply after 2023. Younger groups (15–24, 7–14) also increase but at lower levels. Total patient share roughly doubles from 0.0018 % in 2021 to 0.0042 % in 2025e. Projections from 2026–2030 assume continued year-on-year growth.
November 1, 2025 at 7:51 PM