"These insights hold promise for future interdisciplinary research as well as practical policy design (...) it represents a notable advance in empirical understandings of state violence, employing state-of-the-art machine learning tools"

scienmag.com/machine-lear...

#LaCronicaDeHoy "Esta investigación es relevante para entender las dinámicas del conflicto en México más allá de las acciones por parte de las organizaciones criminales."

www.cronica.com.mx/opinion/2025...

So excited to see my first solo-authored paper in English officially accepted!

Stay tuned for more research on crime, institutions, and quantitative methods

While these analyses are predictive and not intended to establish causal relationships, I also employ feature importance analysis to reveal the main drivers of police and military violence in both countries

The study combines Lasso, Random Forests, XGBoost, Neural Networks, and a Super Learner ensemble to anticipate misconduct by the military and police at the municipal level. #MilitaryMisconduct

Using detailed subnational data from Colombia and Mexico, I built several machine learning models to predict violence by armed forces, achieving over 92% accuracy 📈 #PoliceViolence

I'm excited to share that my article "Predicting Police and Military Violence: Evidence from Colombia and Mexico using machine learning models" has been officially accepted for publication at @nature.com HSScomms! 📚

See a draft version here: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Versión preliminar aquí: papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

Más cosas por venir en temas de crimen, política y otros métodos cuanti 🎯 #violenciapolicial

Aunque los análisis son predictivos y no buscan establecer relaciones causales, también miro la importancia de variables para identificar los principales factores que explican la violencia en ambos países

Combino diferentes métodos de IA como Lasso, Random Forests, XGBoost, Redes Neuronales y un Super Learner ensemble para anticipar la violencia militar y policial a nivel municipal

Utilizando datos subnacionales de Colombia y México, construí varios modelos de aprendizaje automático para predecir violencia por parte de las fuerzas armadas, logrando una precisión superior al 92% 📈

Mi artículo "Predicting Police and Military Violence: Evidence from Colombia and Mexico using machine learning models" ha sido aceptado para publicación en
@nature.com (Humanities & Social Sciences Communications) 📚 y ahí estudio justamente la predicción y prevención de la violencia policial