Link to the paper 😎😎 :

4ecf9d9a-5a64-4d45-b5c8-a6981207c9da.filesusr.com/ugd/fa83d8_a...

Finally, through our structural framework, we propose a "cleansing" method to isolate the underlying inflation belief that ultimately drives the reported forecasts.

Building on this evidence, we propose a quantitative model integrating Bayesian belief updating with forecast revision costs and strategic concerns. We replicate the observed lumpiness and shed light on forecasters' apparent overreactions to new information.

Framed on a fixed-event forecasting framework, we document the impact of lumpiness and consensus pressure on forecast adjustments. To do this, we rely on a relatively unexplored survey of professional forecasters from Bloomberg, where the consensus can be observed in real time.

We argue that Professional forecasters adjust their inflation forecasts in a lumpy pattern, making infrequent but substantial revisions. Strategic concerns play a significant role in that forecasters are more likely to adjust, when their forecasts deviate from the consensus