It's pretty amazing to me that in the context of this chart (US 2y rate minus Japan 2y rate), and a fairly material move lower in the broad dollar index, that USDJPY is unchanged on the year.
December 19, 2025 at 10:57 AM
It's pretty amazing to me that in the context of this chart (US 2y rate minus Japan 2y rate), and a fairly material move lower in the broad dollar index, that USDJPY is unchanged on the year.
Something I've been highlighting in my client notes is that the current richness of USD is the byproduct of three major imbalances. And the residual of these imbalances is the capital account surplus. As we head into 2026, there seems to be a path for some level of normalization.
December 16, 2025 at 12:31 PM
Something I've been highlighting in my client notes is that the current richness of USD is the byproduct of three major imbalances. And the residual of these imbalances is the capital account surplus. As we head into 2026, there seems to be a path for some level of normalization.