Patron Saint of Lost Causes, aka Jeff Skrenes
@jskrenes.bsky.social
Unapologetic liberal, dog dad, housing preservationist, practicing Christian, active community member, fan of the Milwaukee Bucks and St. Louis Cardinals, looking for friends at the end of the world.
The battle mace is in a strategically placed location in order to appease the comics code authority rules.
November 18, 2025 at 7:51 PM
The battle mace is in a strategically placed location in order to appease the comics code authority rules.
You just described the plot to every Nicholas Sparks book, but the writers keep leaving those parts out of the movies because they always seem to call up John Woo for advice and he's like, "Ok, that's cool but what if instead everyone was sad and dying of cancer?"
November 18, 2025 at 2:36 PM
You just described the plot to every Nicholas Sparks book, but the writers keep leaving those parts out of the movies because they always seem to call up John Woo for advice and he's like, "Ok, that's cool but what if instead everyone was sad and dying of cancer?"
The fight scenes in this movie were choreographed quite well for its time.
November 18, 2025 at 2:31 PM
The fight scenes in this movie were choreographed quite well for its time.
All these illegal immigrants being let out of insane asylums are now crossing the border to buy Cadillacs which is why we can't afford health insurance.
Hang it up, Grandpa Simpson, you're no longer the most senile person in the room.
Hang it up, Grandpa Simpson, you're no longer the most senile person in the room.
November 17, 2025 at 9:43 PM
All these illegal immigrants being let out of insane asylums are now crossing the border to buy Cadillacs which is why we can't afford health insurance.
Hang it up, Grandpa Simpson, you're no longer the most senile person in the room.
Hang it up, Grandpa Simpson, you're no longer the most senile person in the room.
And since I don't see this administration as actually thinking that far ahead on behalf of the average person, I'm going to call the 50-year mortgage a nonstarter.
Thank you for attending my TED Talk.
Thank you for attending my TED Talk.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
And since I don't see this administration as actually thinking that far ahead on behalf of the average person, I'm going to call the 50-year mortgage a nonstarter.
Thank you for attending my TED Talk.
Thank you for attending my TED Talk.
To be clear, I still maintain that the idea of a 50-year mortgage is on its face colossally and indisputably bad, and arguably predatory. But if it were my only option, I'd tinker with the amortization curve so that it could line up with what homeowners are going to need.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
To be clear, I still maintain that the idea of a 50-year mortgage is on its face colossally and indisputably bad, and arguably predatory. But if it were my only option, I'd tinker with the amortization curve so that it could line up with what homeowners are going to need.
But MAYBE if you had a 30-year amortization through years 1-20 on the loan, then had it level off somewhat for years 20-35, then had it start to go back to a normal amortization for the remainder of the loan, that could work.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
But MAYBE if you had a 30-year amortization through years 1-20 on the loan, then had it level off somewhat for years 20-35, then had it start to go back to a normal amortization for the remainder of the loan, that could work.
You can't benefit the homeowner if you front-load the principal/interest distribution of a monthly payment over the course of the term, and just make it longer for 50 years.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
You can't benefit the homeowner if you front-load the principal/interest distribution of a monthly payment over the course of the term, and just make it longer for 50 years.
I'd say that the amortization schedule, i.e. how much of the monthly payment gets applied to principal reduction and how much goes towards interest, can't be your standard amortization curve.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
I'd say that the amortization schedule, i.e. how much of the monthly payment gets applied to principal reduction and how much goes towards interest, can't be your standard amortization curve.
Now if you were to hold a gun to my head and say, "Design a 50-year mortgage loan so that it actually serves the average homeowner, because the 50-year amortization is now the thing that has to be there for a mortgage product," here's how I'd structure it.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Now if you were to hold a gun to my head and say, "Design a 50-year mortgage loan so that it actually serves the average homeowner, because the 50-year amortization is now the thing that has to be there for a mortgage product," here's how I'd structure it.
So the 30-year amortization schedule MIGHT give a homeowner enough equity from paying down principal to cover their closing costs of selling one home and buying another if they stay in the first home for between 8-13 years. A 50-year amortization schedule almost certainly fails in this regard.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
So the 30-year amortization schedule MIGHT give a homeowner enough equity from paying down principal to cover their closing costs of selling one home and buying another if they stay in the first home for between 8-13 years. A 50-year amortization schedule almost certainly fails in this regard.
For the average time an American stays in their home, the regularly amortized principal paydown provides $31,300 more in equity after 8 years. For the median time of 13 years, that difference rises to over $60,000.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
For the average time an American stays in their home, the regularly amortized principal paydown provides $31,300 more in equity after 8 years. For the median time of 13 years, that difference rises to over $60,000.
$400,000 purchase price, 10% down, 6.5% fixed rate, no additional principal payments:
On a 30-year loan, the balance is $318,600 after 8 years.
On a 50-year loan, it's $349,900 after 8 years.
On a 30-year loan, it's $279,775 after 13 years.
On a 50-year loan, it's $340,430 after 13 years.
On a 30-year loan, the balance is $318,600 after 8 years.
On a 50-year loan, it's $349,900 after 8 years.
On a 30-year loan, it's $279,775 after 13 years.
On a 50-year loan, it's $340,430 after 13 years.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
$400,000 purchase price, 10% down, 6.5% fixed rate, no additional principal payments:
On a 30-year loan, the balance is $318,600 after 8 years.
On a 50-year loan, it's $349,900 after 8 years.
On a 30-year loan, it's $279,775 after 13 years.
On a 50-year loan, it's $340,430 after 13 years.
On a 30-year loan, the balance is $318,600 after 8 years.
On a 50-year loan, it's $349,900 after 8 years.
On a 30-year loan, it's $279,775 after 13 years.
On a 50-year loan, it's $340,430 after 13 years.
So if the equity from the current home is essentially transferred to the new housing, then ideally the principal paydown covers those other costs. The question becomes, does the math on a 30-year loan work for this, and does it still work on a 50-year amortization schedule?
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
So if the equity from the current home is essentially transferred to the new housing, then ideally the principal paydown covers those other costs. The question becomes, does the math on a 30-year loan work for this, and does it still work on a 50-year amortization schedule?
That move is still going to require the seller to pay realtor and other closing fees on the sale side as well as closing costs on their new mortgage.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
That move is still going to require the seller to pay realtor and other closing fees on the sale side as well as closing costs on their new mortgage.
Let's also assume that the homeowner selling their house is making a lateral move of sorts - that the equity from their sale is being transferred to the new home AND that either the housing market they are moving into or the new housing type is going to give them a similar level of affordability.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Let's also assume that the homeowner selling their house is making a lateral move of sorts - that the equity from their sale is being transferred to the new home AND that either the housing market they are moving into or the new housing type is going to give them a similar level of affordability.
and in some rural areas we're still under $100k. I'm going to assume interest rates stay the same over time at roughly 6.5%, and that magically a 50-year mortgage will have the same rate as its 30-year counterpart (only because we know it won't but I am not speculating on what the rate might be).
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
and in some rural areas we're still under $100k. I'm going to assume interest rates stay the same over time at roughly 6.5%, and that magically a 50-year mortgage will have the same rate as its 30-year counterpart (only because we know it won't but I am not speculating on what the rate might be).
Those numbers have been rising and/or leveling off recently, so let's go with an average of 8 and a median of 13 for our next set of calculations. I'm also going with a median sale price of $400,000 even though in some metro areas that middle ground is far higher,
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Those numbers have been rising and/or leveling off recently, so let's go with an average of 8 and a median of 13 for our next set of calculations. I'm also going with a median sale price of $400,000 even though in some metro areas that middle ground is far higher,
Anyway, it's just plain unrealistic to assume someone is going to stay in the same home, with the same mortgage, for 30 years, much less 50. The average time an American stays in their home has fluctuated between 5-8 years, and the median time has been between 8-13 years.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Anyway, it's just plain unrealistic to assume someone is going to stay in the same home, with the same mortgage, for 30 years, much less 50. The average time an American stays in their home has fluctuated between 5-8 years, and the median time has been between 8-13 years.
...with that one mortgage until well after retirement age. (Note to the Millenials and Gen Z crowd, "retirement" is an outdated idea wherein you get to stop working at some point before you become infirm and/or die and then you live off of your lifelong savings or social security. Haha, right?)
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
...with that one mortgage until well after retirement age. (Note to the Millenials and Gen Z crowd, "retirement" is an outdated idea wherein you get to stop working at some point before you become infirm and/or die and then you live off of your lifelong savings or social security. Haha, right?)
The most common pushback has been in comparing what that 50-year loan would cost in interest over its lifetime compared to a 30-year mortgage. I find that metric to be unrealistic. I mean, even if you manage to buy a home in your mid-20's, that calculation assumes you stay in one home...
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
The most common pushback has been in comparing what that 50-year loan would cost in interest over its lifetime compared to a 30-year mortgage. I find that metric to be unrealistic. I mean, even if you manage to buy a home in your mid-20's, that calculation assumes you stay in one home...
Recently the Trump administration floated the idea of a 50-year mortgage. Most housing experts who aren't sycophants, as well as most current or prospective homeowners, have found this notion ridiculous at best. Perhaps downright predatory.
November 17, 2025 at 5:14 PM
Recently the Trump administration floated the idea of a 50-year mortgage. Most housing experts who aren't sycophants, as well as most current or prospective homeowners, have found this notion ridiculous at best. Perhaps downright predatory.