Jackson
@jscotch.bsky.social
Aspiring Sports Analyst and Amateur Photographer
SDSU Data Science 2026
Padres/Rams/Aztecs MBB
SDSU Data Science 2026
Padres/Rams/Aztecs MBB
All of these changes may be backed up by some numbers but at the end of the day these are humans and being able to adapt to these changes is not a given and should be accounted for, but I think 1 & 2 especially are worth a shot.
6/6
6/6
June 16, 2025 at 7:46 PM
All of these changes may be backed up by some numbers but at the end of the day these are humans and being able to adapt to these changes is not a given and should be accounted for, but I think 1 & 2 especially are worth a shot.
6/6
6/6
Vasquez has been great the first and second times through the order .294 and .316 woba, but that spikes to .421 3rd time through. Being able to skip having to face the top a 3rd time could help him work into 6+ innings, like the Dodgers games he was pitching well but got pulled early.
5/6
5/6
June 16, 2025 at 7:46 PM
Vasquez has been great the first and second times through the order .294 and .316 woba, but that spikes to .421 3rd time through. Being able to skip having to face the top a 3rd time could help him work into 6+ innings, like the Dodgers games he was pitching well but got pulled early.
5/6
5/6
3. Yuki Matsui as an opener for Randy Vasquez. Because of his .391 woba against LHH if a team has 2 LHH in the top 3, Yuki would be a better matchup and has not been used in high leverage spots and is also effective vs RHH. The Padres have also struggled having starters go deep in games.
4/6
4/6
June 16, 2025 at 7:46 PM
3. Yuki Matsui as an opener for Randy Vasquez. Because of his .391 woba against LHH if a team has 2 LHH in the top 3, Yuki would be a better matchup and has not been used in high leverage spots and is also effective vs RHH. The Padres have also struggled having starters go deep in games.
4/6
4/6
2. Bogaerts should change to a Torpedo bat. His swing decisions are on par with his career norms, he's posting his best EVs and sweet spot % of his 2020s. Despite that he's got having the worst season of his career. His barrel % is a career low, so moving where the barrel could be worth a shot.
3/6
3/6
June 16, 2025 at 7:46 PM
2. Bogaerts should change to a Torpedo bat. His swing decisions are on par with his career norms, he's posting his best EVs and sweet spot % of his 2020s. Despite that he's got having the worst season of his career. His barrel % is a career low, so moving where the barrel could be worth a shot.
3/6
3/6
1. Swap Arraez and Merrill in the order. Merrill is a better hitter and should have more ABs. But the catalyst for this move would be moving Arraez a career .359 hitter with RISP behind 3 all stars. With no one on his opb is .287(189th), with runners on his .302 BA(48) is much more valuable.
2/6
2/6
June 16, 2025 at 7:46 PM
1. Swap Arraez and Merrill in the order. Merrill is a better hitter and should have more ABs. But the catalyst for this move would be moving Arraez a career .359 hitter with RISP behind 3 all stars. With no one on his opb is .287(189th), with runners on his .302 BA(48) is much more valuable.
2/6
2/6
Thank you to anyone who took the time to read this, the character limit makes it hard to get everything explained so If you have any questions or feedback I'd love to hear it, feel free to DM or reply. I have a little more in depth write up here: rpubs.com/jkscott8/127...
RPubs - Stolen bases
rpubs.com
March 21, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Thank you to anyone who took the time to read this, the character limit makes it hard to get everything explained so If you have any questions or feedback I'd love to hear it, feel free to DM or reply. I have a little more in depth write up here: rpubs.com/jkscott8/127...
This last one is including attempts against, so how many runs the other team gained stealing against them.
March 21, 2025 at 9:26 PM
This last one is including attempts against, so how many runs the other team gained stealing against them.
Elly still being 6th shows the value that stealing at a middling efficiency has when you expand it to volume, which again is why I think teams will steal much more this year. I also understand not everyone is Elly so I don't think we will say many other guys near 80 attempts
March 21, 2025 at 9:26 PM
Elly still being 6th shows the value that stealing at a middling efficiency has when you expand it to volume, which again is why I think teams will steal much more this year. I also understand not everyone is Elly so I don't think we will say many other guys near 80 attempts
The list makes sense, we would expect guys like Turang and Ohtani who stole a ton of bases, but also the guys who stole at a super high clip like Lawrence Butler and again Ohtani. Elly De La Cruz led the MLB on stolen bases but is down the list a little because he was lower in terms of percentage.
March 21, 2025 at 9:26 PM
The list makes sense, we would expect guys like Turang and Ohtani who stole a ton of bases, but also the guys who stole at a super high clip like Lawrence Butler and again Ohtani. Elly De La Cruz led the MLB on stolen bases but is down the list a little because he was lower in terms of percentage.
This is the final outcome for team specific.
March 21, 2025 at 9:26 PM
This is the final outcome for team specific.
To find who added the most value we can take every stolen base attempt and calculate the actual value using the mean value added for that steal type. This is more direct because it is just the actual value gained or lose in that attempt.
March 21, 2025 at 9:26 PM
To find who added the most value we can take every stolen base attempt and calculate the actual value using the mean value added for that steal type. This is more direct because it is just the actual value gained or lose in that attempt.
I predict that this is the year we see teams steal a record number of bases and cross the 4,000 total stolen bases mark for the first time ever, smashing the previous mark of 3,617.
March 21, 2025 at 9:19 PM
I predict that this is the year we see teams steal a record number of bases and cross the 4,000 total stolen bases mark for the first time ever, smashing the previous mark of 3,617.
Going back to the SB% vs Attempts chart, there is little difference in efficiency when comparing volume of attempts, which contrasts the pre rule change. I think this means is that teams have yet to push the limit of how much value can be gained from stolen bases.
March 21, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Going back to the SB% vs Attempts chart, there is little difference in efficiency when comparing volume of attempts, which contrasts the pre rule change. I think this means is that teams have yet to push the limit of how much value can be gained from stolen bases.
2) The second thing is that the formula I used is just too broad to actually capture the true Run Value added by a team. Using the teams SB% and the mean value added by stealing at that percentage was good for just getting an idea of what a stolen base is adding but we want to be more specific now.
March 21, 2025 at 9:17 PM
2) The second thing is that the formula I used is just too broad to actually capture the true Run Value added by a team. Using the teams SB% and the mean value added by stealing at that percentage was good for just getting an idea of what a stolen base is adding but we want to be more specific now.
The top teams only added between 10-20 runs, earlier I said 10 runs was about one win added that seems not significant when most teams are under 10 runs added and didn’t even add one win. I have two points to make.
1) two wins for AZ were the difference between a WS and not making the playoffs.
1) two wins for AZ were the difference between a WS and not making the playoffs.
March 21, 2025 at 9:17 PM
The top teams only added between 10-20 runs, earlier I said 10 runs was about one win added that seems not significant when most teams are under 10 runs added and didn’t even add one win. I have two points to make.
1) two wins for AZ were the difference between a WS and not making the playoffs.
1) two wins for AZ were the difference between a WS and not making the playoffs.
The second chart gives us more interesting information, as you can see there is a positive linear correlation between attempts and efficiency, for the red, but looking at the blue the line it is pretty flat signaling that there is no clear change is efficiency regardless of attempts.
March 21, 2025 at 9:13 PM
The second chart gives us more interesting information, as you can see there is a positive linear correlation between attempts and efficiency, for the red, but looking at the blue the line it is pretty flat signaling that there is no clear change is efficiency regardless of attempts.
Looking at the run value vs attempts chart I was hoping to see a parabolic curve where you could see where the maximum value can be found in terms of volume without sacrificing efficiency. There really isn’t one because teams who are not adding value through stealing will steal less.
March 21, 2025 at 9:12 PM
Looking at the run value vs attempts chart I was hoping to see a parabolic curve where you could see where the maximum value can be found in terms of volume without sacrificing efficiency. There really isn’t one because teams who are not adding value through stealing will steal less.
Here is a chart of the expected run values based on success rate and what type of steal is being attempted. The highlighted column is mean expected value for that SB%. The mean isn't a perfect representation because it doesn't weight for frequency of steal type, but it's just a rough outline.
March 21, 2025 at 9:10 PM
Here is a chart of the expected run values based on success rate and what type of steal is being attempted. The highlighted column is mean expected value for that SB%. The mean isn't a perfect representation because it doesn't weight for frequency of steal type, but it's just a rough outline.
Expected value is used in probability to weight the outcomes based off of their “value” and their likelihood, so instead of just taking the difference between a successful attempt and an unsuccessful one we can use the chance of success to weight it.
March 21, 2025 at 9:09 PM
Expected value is used in probability to weight the outcomes based off of their “value” and their likelihood, so instead of just taking the difference between a successful attempt and an unsuccessful one we can use the chance of success to weight it.
Credit to Fangraphs for the last run matrix. That one was from 2014 so I used an updated version from 2023. Credit to Sunnyveil on Reddit for this one. To calculate the runs added from stealing a base you just take the difference from before the stolen base event and after the stolen base attempt.
March 21, 2025 at 9:08 PM
Credit to Fangraphs for the last run matrix. That one was from 2014 so I used an updated version from 2023. Credit to Sunnyveil on Reddit for this one. To calculate the runs added from stealing a base you just take the difference from before the stolen base event and after the stolen base attempt.