John Schmitt
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jschmittwdc.bsky.social
John Schmitt
@jschmittwdc.bsky.social
5K followers 1.2K following 350 posts
Economist, Washington DC
Labor, social policy
Formerly: @epi.org, @ceprdc.bsky.social, @equitablegrowth.bsky.social, @cep-lse.bsky.social, UN Peacekeeping
(Very old picture.)
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jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Dean Baker on why the unemployment rate is a much bigger deal than "4.3%" sounds like.

substack.com/inbox/post/1...
Screenshot from a Dean Baker Substack post. Text reads: "In a healthy economy, close to 6 million workers lose or leave their jobs every month, the vast majority of whom look for new jobs. That comes to 70 million over the course of a year, if we just do the arithmetic. Many of these people might change jobs two or three times, but the number of job switchers over the course of a year is still likely around 50 million. If we add in immediate family members, a very large share of the population is directly affected by the state of the labor market. The idea that unemployment matters only to a small portion of the population is just ungodly ignorant."
November 8, 2025 at 3:40 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
"The World’s Highest Incarceration Rates (Including U.S. States)" via Visual Capitalist
www.visualcapitalist.com/the-worlds-h...
A bar chart titled "The World's Highest Incarceration Rates (Including U.S. States)" shows incarceration rates per 100,000 people. El Salvador has the highest rate at 1,086, followed by Louisiana at 1,020. Other high-ranking entities include Mississippi (912), Arkansas (905), and Oklahoma (898). The chart also includes short explanations for some countries like El Salvador (President Bukele's anti-crime crackdowns) and Cuba (2022 Penal Code). The US national average is 615. Incarceration Rates (per 100,000 people) Location Rate El Salvador 1,086 Louisiana 1,020 Mississippi 912 Arkansas 905 Oklahoma 898 Alabama 835 Texas 808 Georgia 770 Florida 746 Kentucky 741 South Dakota 733 Missouri 731 Tennessee 729 Arizona 725 Indiana 673 Wyoming 669 Idaho 660 Cuba 650 South Carolina 622 United States (Overall) 615 Rwanda 580 Turkmenistan 576 Panama 531 Russia 521 Uruguay 494
November 2, 2025 at 12:09 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Great piece on who will lose out when ACA health insurance subsidies expire.

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/202...
A square-shaped area chart titled "Almost half of adults with privately purchased health insurance are self-employed or work at small businesses." The chart is divided into six rectangular sections representing employment status or primary activity of adults with privately purchased health insurance. The sections are: Self-employed/business owner: 18.0% (top left, dark teal) Worker at small business: 27.4% (top right, light teal) Other worker: 27.4% (middle left, light blue) Students: 6.4% (middle right, orange) Retired: 8.5% (bottom right, light orange) Other: 12.3% (bottom right, beige) A note at the bottom of the chart indicates the source as "2025 Current Population Survey Annual Social and Economic Supplement."
October 14, 2025 at 11:46 AM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Great #quarto #revealjs resource by @emilhvitfeldt.bsky.social:
slidecrafting-book.com

h/t @benzipperer.org
Screenshot from linked website: Slidecrafting Making beautiful slides with reveal.js and Quarto Author Emil Hvitfeldt Published September 24, 2025
September 26, 2025 at 12:57 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
"The teacher pay penalty reached a record high in 2024"

Latest in a long series from @ceprdc.bsky.social economist Sylvia Allegretto, in a joint report with @epi.org.

Link to full report:
files.epi.org/uploads/The-...
A line chart titled "Average weekly wages of public school teachers and other college graduates ($2024), 1979–2024." The chart displays two trend lines. The top line, for "Other college grads," shows a steady increase from $1,580 in 1979 to $2,361 in 2024. The bottom line, for "Public school teachers," shows a much flatter trajectory, starting at $1,219 in 1979 and ending at $1,447 in 2024. The gap in weekly wages between the two groups widens substantially over the period shown. The source is cited as the Economic Policy Institute and CEPR.
September 24, 2025 at 9:06 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Text of First Amendment in script on what looks like aged paper. Reads: First Amendment Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances. Image credit: https://firstamendment.mtsu.edu/post/does-the-first-amendment-go-too-far/
September 24, 2025 at 3:32 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Here's a picture from the NYT.

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/24/u...
A bronze-colored statue depicting Donald Trump and Jeffrey Epstein holding hands and skipping together in a joyful pose. The statue is a work of protest art located on the National Mall, with the U.S. Capitol building visible in the background. ALT text via Google Gemini 2.5.
September 24, 2025 at 3:25 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Last night under the cover of darkness, the Trump-Epstein statue on temporary display at the National Mall near the Capitol was removed by the US Park Police -- despite having a permit to remain there until September 28.

www.wusa9.com/article/news...
A screenshot of a WUSA9 news article with the headline: "Trump-Epstein 'friendship' statue removed from National Mall one day after it appeared." The sub-headline reads: "A statue of Trump and Epstein was removed from the National Mall by U.S. Park Police, despite a permit allowing it to remain until Sept. 28." The article features a nighttime photograph of the removal in progress, with people and vehicles with flashing lights. The article is dated September 24, 2025.
September 24, 2025 at 3:21 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
"A federal watchdog reported Thursday that Georgia's program requiring able-bodied adults to document low-paying work to get Medicaid has spent much more on administrative costs than on providing health care."
www.cbsnews.com/atlanta/news...
A screenshot of a news article from CBS News Atlanta, dated September 19, 2025. The headline reads: "Federal watchdog report on Georgia's Medicaid program raises concerns." The first paragraph states: "A federal watchdog reported Thursday that Georgia's program requiring able-bodied adults to document low-paying work to get Medicaid has spent much more on administrative costs than on providing health care."
September 23, 2025 at 3:16 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Economist Valerie Wilson @epi.org on "What’s behind rising unemployment for Black workers?"

www.epi.org/blog/whats-b...
Screenshot of text paragraph: "For the last five years, I’ve given the same answer in response to questions about any one-month increase in the Black unemployment rate. Given the relatively small sample size used to calculate the number each month, we shouldn’t make too much of a single month’s increase but focus on longer-term patterns and see if the upward trend continues over the next few months. Well, as of August 2025, the Black unemployment rate has risen for three consecutive months and now stands at 7.5%."
September 19, 2025 at 2:45 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
"In Mexico, for example, Walmart has been part of an initiative to hire citizens deported from the United States."

-@bethkowitt.bsky.social @opinion.bloomberg.com
bsky.app/profile/opin...
A screenshot of a Bloomberg Opinion post on Bluesky. The post asks, "Does the world hate your favorite brands now?" It then tags @bethkowitt.bsky.social and says she "explains why what was once a blessing is becoming a curse." Below the text is a video still showing a supermarket shelf with various packaged food items, primarily salads and vegetables. The video controls are visible at the bottom, indicating 1:43 of 1:57 duration. Text overlay on the video says "deported from the US."
September 19, 2025 at 2:34 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Forty years ago today, a union born from the ruins of the September 19 earthquake in Mexico City.
(Poster credit: "Ojos de Lucha")
Photograph of a poster with a painting of a woman looking forward with purpose while holding a large needle as if it were a spear and a large button as if it were a shield. The text reads, in Spanish: "Ante la ofensiva patronal / Pueblo a defender el registro legal del sindicato de costureras '19 de septiembre'" ("In the face of the employers' offensive / The people must defend the legal status of the '19th of September' Garment Workers Union")
September 19, 2025 at 11:45 AM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
"Does Anybody Care This Is the Worst Bribery Scandal Since Teapot Dome?" by @timothynoah.bsky.social for @newrepublic.com

newrepublic.com/article/2005...
Screenshot of text: In May it was announced that Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan, who controls the sovereign wealth fund of the United Arab Emirates, was spending $2 billion on a stablecoin from World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm in which the Trump family owns a 60 percent stake that it appears to have acquired without President Donald Trump investing a single penny. There has never been a larger crypto investment, according to Binance, which participated in the deal. Two weeks later, the Trump administration lifted a national-security restriction on UAE’s purchase of U.S.-made AI computer chips. Thanks to this and other corrupt deals, Trump is $5 billion richer than he was when he entered office a mere eight months ago.
September 17, 2025 at 4:20 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
One of every five low-wage workers is an immigrant.
www.workrisenetwork.org/working-know...
A bar chart titled "Total US population, workforce, and low-wage workforce by nativity" compares the percentages of immigrant and US-born individuals across three categories. The legend indicates dark blue for "Immigrant" and light blue for "US-born." The categories and their respective percentages are: Total population: 14% Immigrant, 86% US-born. Prime-age workers: 18% Immigrant, 82% US-born. (Prime-age workers are defined as those aged 25-54 who worked at least 1 week over the 12-month period preceding their survey response). Prime-age, low-wage workers: 22% Immigrant, 78% US-born. The data suggests that immigrants constitute a larger share of the prime-age workforce, and an even larger share of the prime-age, low-wage workforce, compared to their proportion in the total US population. Source: Authors' estimates using the 2022 one-year American Community Survey. Logo: WorkRise. ALT text provided by Google Gemini Pro 2.5
September 17, 2025 at 1:07 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
One of every five early childhood educators is an immigrant.
cscce.berkeley.edu/publications...
A choropleth map of the United States shows the percentage of immigrants in the early care and education workforce by state. The color scale ranges from light blue (5%) to dark purple (20% or more), indicating the proportion of the workforce born outside the US. States with the highest percentages (dark purple, 20%+) include California, Nevada, Arizona, Texas, Florida, New Jersey, New York, Massachusetts, and Hawaii. States with moderate percentages (medium purple/blue, 15-20%) include Washington, Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, and Alaska. States with lower percentages (light blue, 5-10%) are mostly in the Midwest and some parts of the South, such as Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, West Virginia, Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Arkansas. Some states fall into the 10-15% range (medium blue), including Idaho, Utah, Missouri, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. The national average is stated as 21% of the early care and education workforce being immigrants.
September 17, 2025 at 1:02 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
From @theguardian.com:

"Irish woman with green card faces US deportation over $25 bad cheque.

[She] has lived in US since 1977 and wrote cheque a decade ago, being held in isolation by Ice."

www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025...
Screenshot of part of The Guardian story reads: An Irish grandmother who has lived in the US for most of her life and holds a green card is facing deportation because she wrote a bad cheque for $25 in 2015. Donna Hughes-Brown, 58, was detained in July after landing in Chicago on a flight from Dublin and is being held in isolation in a detention centre in Kentucky. She has lived in the US since 1977, has five children and grandchildren, and ran a horse farm in Troy, Missouri. Her husband, Jim Brown, a US citizen and military veteran, told reporters his wife was not a criminal and that he “100%” regretted voting for Donald Trump as president. He said she had been detained on a misdemeanour relating to a $25 cheque she signed a decade ago and for which she made restitution and received probation. She was detained under legislation amended on 4 July as part of Trump’s sweeping “one big beautiful bill” act. The couple visited Ireland that month for a funeral. When they landed at Chicago’s O’Hare airport on 29 July a police officer was waiting for her on the ramp.
September 11, 2025 at 1:05 AM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Helpful.

By @hamiltonnolan.bsky.social here:
www.hamiltonnolan.com/p/new-york-s...
Screenshot from linked post, reads: Social Security is socialist. 401ks are not. Public schools are socialist. Private schools are not. Public roads are socialist. Private toll roads are not. Public parks are socialist. Private playgrounds are not. The fire department is socialist. Private firefighters protecting the mansions of the rich are not. Public health care would be socialist. The awful private health insurance system we have is not.
September 10, 2025 at 1:54 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
"Today’s BLS preliminary benchmark revisions are necessary for timely and accurate data—not fodder for Trump’s attacks"
- @elisegould.bsky.social and @benzipperer.org @epi.org

www.epi.org/blog/todays-...
Screenshot of text from epi.org website: Today’s preliminary benchmark announcement from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reveals weaker job growth between March 2024 and March 2025 than when it was first reported based on survey data. These numbers are likely to anger President Trump and the White House who incorrectly view revised data as political manipulation. Trump has already lashed out at BLS, including firing the agency’s commissioner because a jobs report showed a rapidly weakening labor market. But these BLS data revisions are not corrections of mistakes. Revisions are part of the regular, transparent process to update employment counts with the most comprehensive data possible.
September 9, 2025 at 2:38 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Because "war" is well-known for its limited duration and scope.
A Washington Post article heading: "Opinion" "Editorial Board" The headline is "In defense of the War Department". The subhead reads: "Euphemisms such as “defense” and “security” have a tendency for bureaucratic mission-creep." Below the text is the main image: The seal of the U.S. Department of Defense against a solid blue background. A piece of beige masking tape has been placed over the word "DEFENSE" on the seal, and the word "WAR" has been handwritten on the tape in black marker. This alters the seal to read "DEPARTMENT OF WAR."
September 6, 2025 at 11:30 AM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
The Trump-GOP 2017 tax law has saved seven US healthcare corporations a total of $34 billion in taxes.

New report from @4taxfairness.bsky.social and @communitycatalyst.org:

americansfortaxfairness.org/wp-content/u...
A line chart titled "Healthcare Co. Profits Rose After Trump Tax Law, While Taxes Remained Flat." The chart displays two lines from the period "2014-17 AVG" to 2024. The y-axis is in millions of dollars. A vertical line at 2018 indicates when the "Trump Tax Law Comes Into Effect." The blue line, representing "PROFITS," shows a significant increase after 2014-2017 average of about $20 billion to a peak of over $40 billion in 2021 before starting to decline back to about $30 billion. The orange line, representing "TAXES," shows a dip in 2018 and remains relatively flat and low, staying below $10,000 million for the entire period shown. The source is listed as "Americans for Tax Fairness."
September 5, 2025 at 3:04 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
"Since...Trump’s tariff announcement in April...manufacturing employment has declined by 42,000, while job openings and hires have fallen by 76,000 and 18,000, respectively."

www.americanprogress.org/article/trum...

@kennedyandara.bsky.social @saraestep.bsky.social @americanprogress.bsky.social
A line chart titled, "The manufacturing sector has lost 42,000 jobs since April 2025," shows the cumulative change in employment for that year. The x-axis displays the months from April to August 2025, and the y-axis shows the change in jobs in thousands. A single line starts at 0 in April and steadily declines to a final value of -42,000 in August. An annotation labels the starting point in April as "Liberation Day."
September 5, 2025 at 2:22 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
"DC Attorney General Brian Schwalb...sued President Donald Trump...over the deployment of the National Guard...describing it as an illegal 'military occupation' that has turned domestic troops into local police."

www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/202...
A screenshot of an article from The Washington Post website. Headline: D.C. attorney general sues Trump seeking halt to National Guard deployment Sub-headline: The lawsuit filed by Attorney General Brian Schwalb seeks to force the Trump administration to withdraw the troops and enjoin it from pursuing similar actions in the city.
September 4, 2025 at 3:50 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
"U.S.-born workers are facing a worse labor market in 2025"
@benzipperer.org @epi.org

www.epi.org/blog/dont-be...
A line chart from the Economic Policy Institute titled, "Trump's immigration agenda is not improving U.S.-born employment," with the subtitle, "U.S.-born employment-to-population ratio, ages 25–54." The chart displays data from January to July for three different years: A green line represents 2024. A blue line represents 2023. A red line represents 2025. The vertical axis shows the employment-to-population ratio, ranging from 80% to 82%. All three lines show a general trend of rising from January to a peak in April, and then declining into July. In July, the 2025 line is the lowest of the three years, at approximately 80.8%, while the 2024 line is the highest at about 81.2%. A note at the bottom states, "Data are not seasonally adjusted." The source is listed as "Current Population Survey data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics."
September 4, 2025 at 1:53 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Two disinflations, via @pkrugman.bsky.social.

paulkrugman.substack.com/p/cooking-th...
ALT text prepared by Google Gemini: A scatter plot titled "Two disinflations," showing the relationship between the inflation rate (y-axis) and the unemployment rate (x-axis) for two distinct periods. The first period, shown in blue, traces the path from 1979Q4 to 1985Q4. It begins at high inflation (around 11%) and moderate unemployment (around 6.5%), then shows a significant rise in unemployment to over 10% as inflation comes down, eventually settling around 4% inflation and 7% unemployment. The second period, shown in orange, traces the path from 2022Q2 to 2025Q2. It begins at moderate inflation (around 7%) and low unemployment (under 4%), and moves almost vertically downwards, showing inflation falling to about 2.5% with only a minimal increase in the unemployment rate. The chart contrasts the two periods, illustrating that the 1980s disinflation was associated with a large increase in unemployment, while the 2020s disinflation was not.
September 4, 2025 at 12:16 PM
jschmittwdc.bsky.social
Almost 4 million people are projected to lose health insurance in 2026 when premium tax credits for Affordable Care Act policies are set to expire.

PDF: www.georgetownpoverty.org/wp-content/u...
By Stephanie Scott and Liz Hipple @georgetownpoverty.bsky.social
A stacked bar chart titled "Health Insurance Losses if PTCs Expire in 2025, by Race & Ethnicity," projecting that nearly 4 million people will lose health insurance. The total losses are broken down by group: White, non-Hispanic: 2.0 million Hispanic: 1.0 million Black, non-Hispanic: Approximately 0.7 million Multi-race or additional races and ethnicities: Approximately 0.3 million
September 3, 2025 at 1:17 PM