Trump making full circle on Syria, betting that Sharaa will deliver on Iran, intel sharing and Israel. Key benchmarks to watch from visit:
- Sanctions repeal
- Security arrangement that includes Israel
- anti-ISIS coordination
- Reconstruction bids
- US troops presence

- US bureaucratic measures
None of above is met yet. Sharaa arrives in Washington this weekend, meeting Trump Monday.

In theory there is a strong security argument for both Syria and Israel to want US troops presence near Damascus, BUT:
- This will require set of agreements prior and readiness from new Syrian establishment
- It also requires cohesive security situation inside Syria
- Israeli military knowledge

Both Duwaji and Mamdani come from highly educated, affluent families. Hers is a well known Damascene family in culture and art. Stereotyping them with ugly Islamophobia was shameful during campaign.

Back from family leave after 3 months of whirlwind developments in Middle East.

Sharaa to Washington then MBS, Israel still bombing on 3 fronts, and US-GCC long ladder of deals. Turkey expanding reach while Sudan war still under covered.

Hope everyone been well!

Interesting here:
- China moving more openly on UNSC stage on a hot Middle East issue
- Trump going full distance in supporting Sharaa. US removed its own designation of HTS as FTO
- All happening before potential visit to Sharaa to NY next month

Where we are: nowhere good
- Israeli cabinet meeting tomorrow to discuss options among them occupation of Gaza
- Lebanon cabinet meeting tomorrow to discuss Hezbollah weapons
- Iran defiant as IAEA visit looms, says no inspections
- Trump diplomacy making no progress on Gaza

Moving pieces on Syria
- Talks underway re Suwayda governance
- Israel-Syria normalization still long shot but direct talks re security arrangement in Sep. at UN
- Russians want to maintain mil foothold
- Azerbaijan using close ties to Turkey, Israel. Sharaa was there this month

"The intention is to first annex territories in the perimeter & buffer zone, along Israel’s border,” a security source told
@al-monitor.bsky.social "and if that doesn't help, then annex areas along the northern boundary, between the Palestinian urban area and Israel."

Don't underestimate public sentiment around Gaza in both Europe and Arab world. France has often tried to capitalize, present itself in different light from US (Iraq war etc.). Macron picked day when Gaza talks collapsed, after he met Lebanon PM Nawaf Salam (fmr ICJ prez) to announce.

Why France is going for recognition of Palestine:
- Gaza war getting worse, negotiations faltered again
- France sees void on int'l stage on issue
- Strong FR coordination w Arab states esp. Saudi Arabia,UAE
- Tension high with Netanyahu gov.
- Improved ties, commitments from PA