Joseph Lazzaro
@josephlazzaro.bsky.social
Business news editor - US economy specialist. Author: The United States Government - the promise of democracy and the economy. Prior: @ALM @Courant. College Lecturer, Researcher.
falters in 2H 2026, that will weigh on stock prices. The wild card remains Trump’s tariffs: if they are widespread and permanent, that would further slow the US economy. 9/9
January 11, 2026 at 5:38 PM
falters in 2H 2026, that will weigh on stock prices. The wild card remains Trump’s tariffs: if they are widespread and permanent, that would further slow the US economy. 9/9
at unacceptable rates for groceries, utilities (electricity), rent/home prices, home insurance, and health care insurance. For now, corporate earnings growth for 2026, as measure by the S & P 500, should be adequate, but if earnings growth 8/9
January 11, 2026 at 5:38 PM
at unacceptable rates for groceries, utilities (electricity), rent/home prices, home insurance, and health care insurance. For now, corporate earnings growth for 2026, as measure by the S & P 500, should be adequate, but if earnings growth 8/9
duhh… not enough jobs are being created in the private sector. Job searches are routinely taking 6, 9 even 12 months or longer. (!!) Meanwhile inflation remains too high, with prices continuing to rise 7/9
January 11, 2026 at 5:38 PM
duhh… not enough jobs are being created in the private sector. Job searches are routinely taking 6, 9 even 12 months or longer. (!!) Meanwhile inflation remains too high, with prices continuing to rise 7/9
real estate, and one can see signs of sluggishness throughout the economy. US Q4 2025 GDP totaled 4.3%: don’t look for that to be replicated in Q1 or Q2 2026, even with the income tax cut that took effect. The reason? 6/9
January 11, 2026 at 5:38 PM
real estate, and one can see signs of sluggishness throughout the economy. US Q4 2025 GDP totaled 4.3%: don’t look for that to be replicated in Q1 or Q2 2026, even with the income tax cut that took effect. The reason? 6/9
health care 21,000, appliance retailers 5,000. However, retail trade lost 25,000 jobs, and general merchandise retailers / warehouses / supercenters lost 19,000. Combine the above with declines in manufacturing and residential 5/9
January 11, 2026 at 5:38 PM
health care 21,000, appliance retailers 5,000. However, retail trade lost 25,000 jobs, and general merchandise retailers / warehouses / supercenters lost 19,000. Combine the above with declines in manufacturing and residential 5/9
-173,000 and 56,000, respectively. Laz: the downward revisions are further signs of weakening job growth. Job growth has been trending lower for 3 years, since the spring 2023. In December, food services / drink gained 27,000 jobs, 4/9
January 11, 2026 at 5:38 PM
-173,000 and 56,000, respectively. Laz: the downward revisions are further signs of weakening job growth. Job growth has been trending lower for 3 years, since the spring 2023. In December, food services / drink gained 27,000 jobs, 4/9
an “employers’ / companies’ market” for nearly all adults who have had the misfortune of being laid off / downsized in this economy. October / November payrolls were revised down 68k and 8k, respectively, to 3/9
January 11, 2026 at 5:38 PM
an “employers’ / companies’ market” for nearly all adults who have had the misfortune of being laid off / downsized in this economy. October / November payrolls were revised down 68k and 8k, respectively, to 3/9
don’t let any Oval Office statement sway you: the economy is NOT creating enough private-sector jobs, and when combined with federal job cuts, the product is: 1) long job searches in many sectors and 2/9
January 11, 2026 at 5:38 PM
don’t let any Oval Office statement sway you: the economy is NOT creating enough private-sector jobs, and when combined with federal job cuts, the product is: 1) long job searches in many sectors and 2/9
Further, unless there is a substantial change in public policy – such as retaining the ACA / Obamacare subsidies – the Federal Reserve’s job of rate-cut stimulus will be an arduous one, and it may not succeed. 7/7
December 4, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Further, unless there is a substantial change in public policy – such as retaining the ACA / Obamacare subsidies – the Federal Reserve’s job of rate-cut stimulus will be an arduous one, and it may not succeed. 7/7
The US DOL Non-Farm Payroll Report, to be released later this month, is more encompassing, including both public and private jobs, but even without that data, red lights are flashing regarding a potential recession. 6/7
December 4, 2025 at 3:11 AM
The US DOL Non-Farm Payroll Report, to be released later this month, is more encompassing, including both public and private jobs, but even without that data, red lights are flashing regarding a potential recession. 6/7
Add the double whammy of rising costs for food, utilities, and especially health insurance premiums in Trump’s 2025 and one can see how consumer spending will drop to tepid levels, for all but the top 10 percent of income earners. 5/7
December 4, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Add the double whammy of rising costs for food, utilities, and especially health insurance premiums in Trump’s 2025 and one can see how consumer spending will drop to tepid levels, for all but the top 10 percent of income earners. 5/7
which shows an economy that is barely growing under Trump. What’s more, the US unemployment rate is likely to rise – and this is before the full growth-reducing impact of Trump’s tariffs takes effect. 4/7
December 4, 2025 at 3:11 AM
which shows an economy that is barely growing under Trump. What’s more, the US unemployment rate is likely to rise – and this is before the full growth-reducing impact of Trump’s tariffs takes effect. 4/7
Clearly, private sector job growth has slowed substantially. This compares to an average 144,000-job gain during President Biden’s last year in office, 2024. The job growth slowdown is consistent with other data (GDP, consumer spending) 3/7
December 4, 2025 at 3:11 AM
Clearly, private sector job growth has slowed substantially. This compares to an average 144,000-job gain during President Biden’s last year in office, 2024. The job growth slowdown is consistent with other data (GDP, consumer spending) 3/7
a negative trend make, but since August we’ve had private sector payrolls at -3,000, -29,000, 47,000 and November’s -31,000. This contrasts with an average gain of 80,500 over the first six months of 2025. 2/7
December 4, 2025 at 3:11 AM
a negative trend make, but since August we’ve had private sector payrolls at -3,000, -29,000, 47,000 and November’s -31,000. This contrasts with an average gain of 80,500 over the first six months of 2025. 2/7
The sooner oil falls to at least $45-55 the better. What would be ideal? The price of oil stagnates at ~$50 per barrel for five years. 4 / 4 #oil #gasprices
November 9, 2025 at 4:10 PM
The sooner oil falls to at least $45-55 the better. What would be ideal? The price of oil stagnates at ~$50 per barrel for five years. 4 / 4 #oil #gasprices
which lowers GDP growth and corporate earnings growth in the US and in most of the world. A reverse scenario leads to larger job growth and adequate US GDP growth. Oil should be at $40-$50 per bbl, - there is no shortage of oil anywhere in the world. 3 / 4
November 9, 2025 at 4:10 PM
which lowers GDP growth and corporate earnings growth in the US and in most of the world. A reverse scenario leads to larger job growth and adequate US GDP growth. Oil should be at $40-$50 per bbl, - there is no shortage of oil anywhere in the world. 3 / 4
it would an inordinately, too-high oil price. A high oil price makes the cost of transporting just about….everything…more expensive. It acts as an unnecessary, non-legislated ‘tax’ on consumers and businesses, robbing them of income, 2 / 4 #gasprices
November 9, 2025 at 4:10 PM
it would an inordinately, too-high oil price. A high oil price makes the cost of transporting just about….everything…more expensive. It acts as an unnecessary, non-legislated ‘tax’ on consumers and businesses, robbing them of income, 2 / 4 #gasprices
for more than 6 months, changed little at 1.9 million, but that total has increased by 385,000 in the last 12 months. Bottom line: Job market is trending in the wrong direction and it’s hard to see high, widespread tariffs reversing that trend. 3/3
September 23, 2025 at 2:50 AM
for more than 6 months, changed little at 1.9 million, but that total has increased by 385,000 in the last 12 months. Bottom line: Job market is trending in the wrong direction and it’s hard to see high, widespread tariffs reversing that trend. 3/3
the job market continues to register tepid growth. The US economy needs to add 32,000 to 82,000 jobs per month, acc to the St. Louis Fed, just to keep unemployment from rising. Long-term unemployed – those looking for a job 2/3
September 23, 2025 at 2:50 AM
the job market continues to register tepid growth. The US economy needs to add 32,000 to 82,000 jobs per month, acc to the St. Louis Fed, just to keep unemployment from rising. Long-term unemployed – those looking for a job 2/3
Bottom Line: Every muscle must be strained to prevent the Oval Office person from falsifying the monthly jobs report statistic: the stability of capital markets and the functioning of our economy depend on accurate data, not his propaganda. 7/7 END
August 4, 2025 at 12:42 AM
Bottom Line: Every muscle must be strained to prevent the Oval Office person from falsifying the monthly jobs report statistic: the stability of capital markets and the functioning of our economy depend on accurate data, not his propaganda. 7/7 END