Joseph Hefner
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josephjefe.bsky.social
Joseph Hefner
@josephjefe.bsky.social
You'll see mostly Chiefs and NFL analytics and graphics here. I produce work for @KCSportsNetwork. JosephJefe on most social media platforms

Website: https://www.JefesHandiwork.com/
NFC Conference Standings!

Two weeks ago, the Packers and Eagles were the 1st and 2nd ranked teams. They just played on MNF. The Eagles squeaked out a 10-7 victory to maintain their top seeding.

The Lions have been all over the place, but jumped up to 3rd after a decisive win over the Commanders.
November 11, 2025 at 11:16 PM
AFC Conference Standings!

Colts have maintained a strangle-hold on the #1 seed, despite some recent struggles.
The Broncos have clawed their way up to 2nd.
The Chiefs--who are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl--are 8th.
The Titans have been the most consistently ranked team.
November 11, 2025 at 11:12 PM
Here is how the odds for teams with greater than 5% SB probability have moved over time.

The Bills have fallen from grace, and hard.
The Chiefs took over that spot in a big way, then tanked due to Chiefs loss vs Bills.
The Rams have steadily climbed week after week until now they're second.
November 11, 2025 at 11:08 PM
Can Your Team Win the Super Bowl?

The Chiefs--who got spanked by the Bills in week 9, went on bye, and are currently ranked 8th in the AFC, thus not in the playoffs--are the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl.

The aforementioned Bills have the 7th best odds.

This has been a weird season...
November 11, 2025 at 11:02 PM
I almost died reading this part. Laughed so hard I choked.

😂 🤣
November 7, 2025 at 3:55 AM
Chiefs have an opportunity to double-dip this week, for the 4th time this season.
November 2, 2025 at 11:05 PM
It's KC @ BUF!!!

These two teams are ranked very similarly. On O and D, KC edges BUF out on overall EPA, but it's close. Both D's struggle against the run. KC has best success rate overall and passing. BUF has significant edge at creating explosives plays, while KC has been better at limiting them.
November 2, 2025 at 3:48 PM
Chiefs @ Bills Injury Report:

Both teams missing starters. Chiefs LT Simmons is missing for the 4th straight game. His backup, Jaylon Moore, is questionable. RG Trey Smith is also questionable, so Chiefs OL pretty banged up right now.

Bills missing a couple major pieces on defense, plus Palmer.
October 31, 2025 at 8:58 PM
Defense!

Hicks with a major resurgence in snaps!! Where'd that come from?!
Cook continues to be replaced on random drives by CRW.
Nohl with 3(?) meaningful snaps.
Jerry Tillery got a ton of work on MNF.
October 29, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Pillboxes! WAS @ KC

KC used 7 OL on Hunt's first 4th down conversion.
Pacheco with only one down that wasn't 1st or 2nd.
I think B.Smith had his lowest ration of snaps to touches this game.
Rice and Worthy both with completely full workloads.
Thornton is basically completely phased out.
October 29, 2025 at 9:04 PM
Forgive me linking the bad place.

x.com/j810anderson...
October 28, 2025 at 10:45 PM
NFC Seeding Chart!

The Packers remain atop the standings, while the 49ers have finally fallen (from 2nd to 7th).

Bakers Bucs rise to 3rd place this week, after from 1st to 4th last week.

Those Darn(old) Seahawks continue to stick around, climbing to their highest seed of the season at 4th.
October 28, 2025 at 7:48 PM
AFC Seeding Chart!

In which the Chiefs have finally arrived in the playoffs (as the 7th seed)!!! Cheers and celebrations!

The Patriots started from (near) bottom now they're here (in second place).

The Steelers continue to baffle every expert and ball knower, as they have for the past decade.
October 28, 2025 at 7:44 PM
Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl?

The Chiefs, who are finally, for the first time this season, in the playoffs if they started today (7 seeds), are the prohibitive favorites to win the Super Bowl. They are 4.1 points ahead of the Lions.

DEN, BAL, and TB at 4% as plucky underdog picks.
October 28, 2025 at 7:41 PM
If we limit the data to the 2017-2024 seasons, there have been 74 trades in the 8 days leading up to and including the deadline.

That's an average of 9.25 trades per year.

Who's your predictions for the other 8.25 trades?
October 27, 2025 at 5:56 PM
The Monday leading into the final week before the deadline has quietly become one of the league’s busiest trade days, responsible for 5.1% of all in-season deals since 2011.

Today and tomorrow are prime trade days, then not much until next Monday.
October 27, 2025 at 5:30 PM
NFL fans are beginning to get twitterpated about their teams trading for players.

How often do teams make in-season trades (any trade after the first game is played), and how many of those trades happen in the final week before the deadline (Sunday, Oct 26th through Tuesday, Nov 4th for 2025)?
October 24, 2025 at 4:53 PM
Defense

Cook replaced by CRW on two drives this game, before starters were pulled.
Hicks has not been used nearly as much as I expected this season.
Omenihu still above Danna on the depth chart.
October 23, 2025 at 5:38 PM
Pillboxes! LV @ KC

Real offense had 5 drives, ending in 4 TD's and a FG

Pacheco had 2 3rd down snaps.
After the 2nd drive, Brashard Smith got the touch on every single snap he was in for.
Rice and JuJu were largely not on the field at the same time.
Chiefs using a lot of 12 personnel, with 2 TE's.
October 23, 2025 at 5:38 PM
𝗡𝗙𝗟 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸 𝟴 𝗢𝗱𝗱𝘀 🎯

🔒 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗸 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗪𝗲𝗲𝗸: IND -14 vs TEN
🎲 𝗣𝗶𝗰𝗸 ’𝗘𝗺 𝗦𝗽𝗲𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹: HOU -1.5 vs SF
💥 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝗼𝘁𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗚𝗮𝗺𝗲: DAL @ DEN (50.5 total)
😴 𝗗𝗲𝗳𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘃𝗲 𝗚𝗿𝗶𝗻𝗱: CLE @ NE (40.5 total)

What game are you watching this week? 👀
October 23, 2025 at 5:19 PM
NFC Seeding Chart

The Packers have had quite the journey this season, but are back in command of the 1 seed.
The 49ers, who don't have a single healthy WR, are somehow the 2 seed.
The Eagles are so down bad that they had to beg Brandon Graham to come out of retirement. They're the 3 seed.
October 21, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Weekly seeding movement! AFC

The Chiefs, who just put a shellacking on the hapless Raiders, are still 8 seeds.
The Raiders are somehow still 11 seeds.
The Colts remain good.
The Broncos, who came within a goats hair of losing to the Giants, somehow jumped to 3.

Nothing makes sense in todays NFL.
October 21, 2025 at 10:03 PM
Can Your Team Win The Super Bowl?

Seven weeks into the season, and the Chiefs are once more at their rightful place atop the NFL pyramid. It feels good, doesn't it? Like everything is once again right with the world?
Or at least one thing is?

The Bills fall from gold to bronze. Lions take silver.
October 21, 2025 at 9:53 PM
Defense
Note: The Raiders offense only ran 30 total plays

Nohl Williams sees a season high 24 snaps. He got 0 snaps in week 1, 4 in week 4. Every other week he has had 19 or more.
Fulton continues to be a healthy scratch
Bottom 3 LB's with some actual work this week.
October 20, 2025 at 2:54 PM
KC Weekly Snaps!

Chiefs offense was on the field for 81 plays.
Mahomes offense for 65 (80%)

Worthy led WR snaps with 48 (59%). I assume those were all with Pat.
Rice got 33 snaps (41%, or 50% with Pat) in his debut.

In a blowout, Royals, Remigio, Tonyan, and Smith all got season highs.
October 20, 2025 at 2:54 PM