Joohn Choe
@joohnchoe.bsky.social
Consultant, researcher & "one man intelligence agency funded on Patreon, seriously?!" - John N. Tye. Cited in NYT, Washington Post, NATO Hybrid COE. #NAFO Assistant (to the) Sanctions Manager
Remember how Paul Ryan, Omarosa Manigault and Jeff Sessions used to all be on the team during Trump 1.0?
Remember how they all left?
Starting to feel like that now.
(Image on left from: Jason Leopold, "The FBI Redacted Trump’s Name in the Epstein Files", Bloomberg, August 1, 2025)
Remember how they all left?
Starting to feel like that now.
(Image on left from: Jason Leopold, "The FBI Redacted Trump’s Name in the Epstein Files", Bloomberg, August 1, 2025)
August 1, 2025 at 7:19 PM
Remember how Paul Ryan, Omarosa Manigault and Jeff Sessions used to all be on the team during Trump 1.0?
Remember how they all left?
Starting to feel like that now.
(Image on left from: Jason Leopold, "The FBI Redacted Trump’s Name in the Epstein Files", Bloomberg, August 1, 2025)
Remember how they all left?
Starting to feel like that now.
(Image on left from: Jason Leopold, "The FBI Redacted Trump’s Name in the Epstein Files", Bloomberg, August 1, 2025)
The July 25-28 poll suggests only 28% of 18-29-year-olds now think Trump is doing a good job as President, a significant decrease from the 2024 election, while only 18% think that he is not involved in crimes with Jeffrey Epstein.
July 30, 2025 at 8:09 PM
The July 25-28 poll suggests only 28% of 18-29-year-olds now think Trump is doing a good job as President, a significant decrease from the 2024 election, while only 18% think that he is not involved in crimes with Jeffrey Epstein.
The variation by age is particularly interesting in the context of a recent G Elliott Morris analysis suggesting significant decrease in Trump support among 18-29-year-olds.
July 30, 2025 at 8:09 PM
The variation by age is particularly interesting in the context of a recent G Elliott Morris analysis suggesting significant decrease in Trump support among 18-29-year-olds.
The variation by race seems superficially interesting, but, when you take into account the strong correlation between race, party affiliation and yes/no answers, it starts to make sense.
July 30, 2025 at 8:09 PM
The variation by race seems superficially interesting, but, when you take into account the strong correlation between race, party affiliation and yes/no answers, it starts to make sense.
Bottom line up front, about half of the country thinks the President is a sex criminal. Again.
So, there you go.
There's more interesting detail in the most recent Economist/YouGov poll data, though.
I couldn't find charts anywhere so I made them.
(🧵)
So, there you go.
There's more interesting detail in the most recent Economist/YouGov poll data, though.
I couldn't find charts anywhere so I made them.
(🧵)
July 30, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Bottom line up front, about half of the country thinks the President is a sex criminal. Again.
So, there you go.
There's more interesting detail in the most recent Economist/YouGov poll data, though.
I couldn't find charts anywhere so I made them.
(🧵)
So, there you go.
There's more interesting detail in the most recent Economist/YouGov poll data, though.
I couldn't find charts anywhere so I made them.
(🧵)
could you just use the frickin' metric system please
July 30, 2025 at 5:10 PM
could you just use the frickin' metric system please
Virtually the entire recent decline is caused by significant drops (16% each) with Democratic and independent-identifying respondents; approval of Israel's actions amongst Republicans has actually gone up.
July 29, 2025 at 7:05 PM
Virtually the entire recent decline is caused by significant drops (16% each) with Democratic and independent-identifying respondents; approval of Israel's actions amongst Republicans has actually gone up.
As of July 29 2025, Gallup polling data published today suggests just 32% of Americans support Israel’s military action in Gaza.
July 29, 2025 at 7:05 PM
As of July 29 2025, Gallup polling data published today suggests just 32% of Americans support Israel’s military action in Gaza.
The state of American discourse on Israel’s war on Gaza in the last week of July 2025 looks, at least superficially, like a remarkable case study in information war failure.
For the first time in recent memory, a Republican lawmaker used the word “genocide” to describe Israel’s actions in Gaza.
(🧵)
For the first time in recent memory, a Republican lawmaker used the word “genocide” to describe Israel’s actions in Gaza.
(🧵)
July 29, 2025 at 7:05 PM
The state of American discourse on Israel’s war on Gaza in the last week of July 2025 looks, at least superficially, like a remarkable case study in information war failure.
For the first time in recent memory, a Republican lawmaker used the word “genocide” to describe Israel’s actions in Gaza.
(🧵)
For the first time in recent memory, a Republican lawmaker used the word “genocide” to describe Israel’s actions in Gaza.
(🧵)
"I'm sorry sir, I gotta make that quota today"
July 29, 2025 at 12:03 AM
"I'm sorry sir, I gotta make that quota today"
"There are three ways that international orders collapse, according to the historian Brendan Simms quoted in Bloomberg today:
'Through defeat in war or some catastrophic failure of deterrence; through economic decline or a divergence between the order’s political and economic arrangements...'
(🧵)
'Through defeat in war or some catastrophic failure of deterrence; through economic decline or a divergence between the order’s political and economic arrangements...'
(🧵)
July 28, 2025 at 11:33 PM
"There are three ways that international orders collapse, according to the historian Brendan Simms quoted in Bloomberg today:
'Through defeat in war or some catastrophic failure of deterrence; through economic decline or a divergence between the order’s political and economic arrangements...'
(🧵)
'Through defeat in war or some catastrophic failure of deterrence; through economic decline or a divergence between the order’s political and economic arrangements...'
(🧵)
And since there is also public, verified information on linkages to Russian influence ops by the ODNI herself, it seems reasonable to treat that document dump itself as a form of influence op - in this case 'malinformation' or the exploitation of true facts to develop misleading/untrue implications.
July 23, 2025 at 6:28 PM
And since there is also public, verified information on linkages to Russian influence ops by the ODNI herself, it seems reasonable to treat that document dump itself as a form of influence op - in this case 'malinformation' or the exploitation of true facts to develop misleading/untrue implications.
And, since the ODNI's document dump itself, on which right-wing conspiracy theorists are now basing their content, includes assessments of Russia's influence-operations capability, we know that the threat was quite real, and it's a very reasonable guess that it's still ongoing.
July 23, 2025 at 6:28 PM
And, since the ODNI's document dump itself, on which right-wing conspiracy theorists are now basing their content, includes assessments of Russia's influence-operations capability, we know that the threat was quite real, and it's a very reasonable guess that it's still ongoing.
We know from statistical analysis of HPSCI's Russian ads - and I'm just talking the 2016 corpus - that there appears to be a relatively large and well-organized program that hypothesis-tested, learned, and targeted with extreme geographical and cultural specificity.
July 23, 2025 at 6:28 PM
We know from statistical analysis of HPSCI's Russian ads - and I'm just talking the 2016 corpus - that there appears to be a relatively large and well-organized program that hypothesis-tested, learned, and targeted with extreme geographical and cultural specificity.
We know from House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence advertisements which the Internet Research agency paid for in rubles that there was an extensive influence operation targeting Americans.
July 23, 2025 at 6:28 PM
We know from House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence advertisements which the Internet Research agency paid for in rubles that there was an extensive influence operation targeting Americans.
So, we know, from statements that Yevgeniy Prigozhin made before his death, that he ran the Internet Research Agency, and he got them to interfere in the election at Putin's behest.
July 23, 2025 at 6:28 PM
So, we know, from statements that Yevgeniy Prigozhin made before his death, that he ran the Internet Research Agency, and he got them to interfere in the election at Putin's behest.
The disinformation narrative that
"Russian interference in 2016 was an Obama-administration hoax"
is so stupid it is possible to defeat it on the merits without even engaging with its claims in detail.
🧵
"Russian interference in 2016 was an Obama-administration hoax"
is so stupid it is possible to defeat it on the merits without even engaging with its claims in detail.
🧵
July 23, 2025 at 6:28 PM
The disinformation narrative that
"Russian interference in 2016 was an Obama-administration hoax"
is so stupid it is possible to defeat it on the merits without even engaging with its claims in detail.
🧵
"Russian interference in 2016 was an Obama-administration hoax"
is so stupid it is possible to defeat it on the merits without even engaging with its claims in detail.
🧵
I'll have something much prettier to look at as an answer tomorrow, but, as a start, you need DATA if you're going to make an observation like that much less deduce anything from it, and I finally gathered the data; this is my top 10 shares in a 48-hour window across my sources:
July 21, 2025 at 5:18 AM
I'll have something much prettier to look at as an answer tomorrow, but, as a start, you need DATA if you're going to make an observation like that much less deduce anything from it, and I finally gathered the data; this is my top 10 shares in a 48-hour window across my sources:
Ask a dumb question, sometimes it takes a bit of work to get an answer.
Question: how much impact is there really to Epstein revelations in the context of the low-quality right-wing news ecosystem?
The question is really "How do you quantify an idée fixe?"
(🧵)
Question: how much impact is there really to Epstein revelations in the context of the low-quality right-wing news ecosystem?
The question is really "How do you quantify an idée fixe?"
(🧵)
July 21, 2025 at 5:18 AM
Ask a dumb question, sometimes it takes a bit of work to get an answer.
Question: how much impact is there really to Epstein revelations in the context of the low-quality right-wing news ecosystem?
The question is really "How do you quantify an idée fixe?"
(🧵)
Question: how much impact is there really to Epstein revelations in the context of the low-quality right-wing news ecosystem?
The question is really "How do you quantify an idée fixe?"
(🧵)
gonna be real, "correlation isn't causation" I know, but
it's hard not to see this as cause and effect
it's hard not to see this as cause and effect
July 14, 2025 at 5:11 PM
gonna be real, "correlation isn't causation" I know, but
it's hard not to see this as cause and effect
it's hard not to see this as cause and effect
Usually the highest-chaos outcome is the worst for liberals.
Looking at the budget bill, the July 7 MacArthur Park ICE raid, foreign policy setbacks and the kerfuffle over Epstein files, I don't think that's necessarily true anymore.
www.patreon.com/posts/what-t...
Looking at the budget bill, the July 7 MacArthur Park ICE raid, foreign policy setbacks and the kerfuffle over Epstein files, I don't think that's necessarily true anymore.
www.patreon.com/posts/what-t...
July 11, 2025 at 8:24 PM
Usually the highest-chaos outcome is the worst for liberals.
Looking at the budget bill, the July 7 MacArthur Park ICE raid, foreign policy setbacks and the kerfuffle over Epstein files, I don't think that's necessarily true anymore.
www.patreon.com/posts/what-t...
Looking at the budget bill, the July 7 MacArthur Park ICE raid, foreign policy setbacks and the kerfuffle over Epstein files, I don't think that's necessarily true anymore.
www.patreon.com/posts/what-t...
It's difficult to say this without a baseline - there is a 'control' sample - but... given the exceptionally strong conformity signals and suppression of dissent that characterize MAGA culture, I think this level of doubt and acceptance of Trump's evil is unusual.
July 10, 2025 at 8:13 PM
It's difficult to say this without a baseline - there is a 'control' sample - but... given the exceptionally strong conformity signals and suppression of dissent that characterize MAGA culture, I think this level of doubt and acceptance of Trump's evil is unusual.
1. It Was All Part Of A Secret Plan - 19
2. Doubt in Bondi And/Or Trump - 11
3. Accept Trump Is On List - 5
4. Fact-check/doubt, Blame Democrats, There Is No List, There Is A List (all) - 1
2. Doubt in Bondi And/Or Trump - 11
3. Accept Trump Is On List - 5
4. Fact-check/doubt, Blame Democrats, There Is No List, There Is A List (all) - 1
July 10, 2025 at 8:13 PM
1. It Was All Part Of A Secret Plan - 19
2. Doubt in Bondi And/Or Trump - 11
3. Accept Trump Is On List - 5
4. Fact-check/doubt, Blame Democrats, There Is No List, There Is A List (all) - 1
2. Doubt in Bondi And/Or Trump - 11
3. Accept Trump Is On List - 5
4. Fact-check/doubt, Blame Democrats, There Is No List, There Is A List (all) - 1
Coding the results broadly by type of response, this methodology suggests the following major categories and counts:
July 10, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Coding the results broadly by type of response, this methodology suggests the following major categories and counts:
Where possible, I captured a comments screenshot showing at least one "Accept Trump Is On List" comment, 'overcapturing' for this number; the real number is very very likely much, much lower.
July 10, 2025 at 8:13 PM
Where possible, I captured a comments screenshot showing at least one "Accept Trump Is On List" comment, 'overcapturing' for this number; the real number is very very likely much, much lower.