Jón Steinsson 🗽
@jonsteinsson.bsky.social
Economics professor at UC Berkeley.
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/
Natural gas is pretty much disappearing from the electricity mix in California.
May 19, 2025 at 5:38 AM
Natural gas is pretty much disappearing from the electricity mix in California.
April 22, 2025 at 4:31 PM
Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽
#QJE May 2025, #1, “When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870,” by Bouscasse (@paulbouscasse.bsky.social), Nakamura, and Steinsson (@jonsteinsson.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870*
Abstract. We estimate productivity growth in England from 1250 to 1870. Real wages over this period were heavily influenced by plague-induced swings in the
doi.org
April 16, 2025 at 6:53 PM
#QJE May 2025, #1, “When Did Growth Begin? New Estimates of Productivity Growth in England from 1250 to 1870,” by Bouscasse (@paulbouscasse.bsky.social), Nakamura, and Steinsson (@jonsteinsson.bsky.social): doi.org/10.1093/qje/...
The Fed spent down a lot of credibility when it looked through the temporary post-Covid inflation and managed to engineer a rare soft landing. But this probably means it has less of an ability to do so again now (less credibility). That means a more aggressive approach is probably optimal this time
April 5, 2025 at 12:40 AM
The Fed spent down a lot of credibility when it looked through the temporary post-Covid inflation and managed to engineer a rare soft landing. But this probably means it has less of an ability to do so again now (less credibility). That means a more aggressive approach is probably optimal this time
I guess Trump is going for import substitution policy. That sure made lots of countries rich in the past.
March 11, 2025 at 6:37 PM
I guess Trump is going for import substitution policy. That sure made lots of countries rich in the past.
Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽
I finally made the transition from X to here, looking forward to interacting with the econ community here @tedmiguel.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @rthaler.bsky.social @cega-uc.bsky.social @socscipredict.bsky.social
March 5, 2025 at 6:51 PM
I finally made the transition from X to here, looking forward to interacting with the econ community here @tedmiguel.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @rthaler.bsky.social @cega-uc.bsky.social @socscipredict.bsky.social
Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽
CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy:
- defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake
- 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure
- looser debt rules for states
- further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag
- defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake
- 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure
- looser debt rules for states
- further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag
March 4, 2025 at 6:40 PM
CDU/CSU &SPD have just proposed a sea change in German fiscal policy:
- defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake
- 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure
- looser debt rules for states
- further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag
- defence spending above 1% of GDP exempt from debt brake
- 10-year €500bn special fund for infrastructure
- looser debt rules for states
- further debt-brake reform in new Bundestag
Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽
The ABA rejects efforts to undermine the courts and the legal profession. Read full message: www.americanbar.org/news/abanews...
March 3, 2025 at 7:50 PM
The ABA rejects efforts to undermine the courts and the legal profession. Read full message: www.americanbar.org/news/abanews...
For the record, as of the start of Trump's second term, the US economy is on a tear.
Here's each G7 country's cumulative increase in real GDP per capita, since just before the pandemic:
🇺🇸 +9.4%
🇮🇹 +6.5% (thru Q3)
🇯🇵 +3.1%
🇫🇷 +1.8% (thru Q3)
🇬🇧 -1.1%
🇩🇪 -1.9% (thru Q3)
🇨🇦 -2.0% (thru Q3)
🇺🇸 +9.4%
🇮🇹 +6.5% (thru Q3)
🇯🇵 +3.1%
🇫🇷 +1.8% (thru Q3)
🇬🇧 -1.1%
🇩🇪 -1.9% (thru Q3)
🇨🇦 -2.0% (thru Q3)
February 18, 2025 at 6:07 AM
For the record, as of the start of Trump's second term, the US economy is on a tear.
These DOGE guys are so smart!!!
"Not realizing they oversee the country's weapons stockpile"
"Not realizing they oversee the country's weapons stockpile"
Trump administration officials fired more than 300 staffers Thursday night at the National Nuclear Security Administration — the agency tasked with managing the nation’s nuclear stockpile — as part of broader Energy Department layoffs, according to four people with knowledge of the matter.
Trump officials fired nuclear staff not realizing they oversee the country’s weapons stockpile, sources say | CNN
Some of the fired probationary employees included on-the-ground staff at facilities where nuclear weapons are built.
cnn.it
February 15, 2025 at 12:40 AM
These DOGE guys are so smart!!!
"Not realizing they oversee the country's weapons stockpile"
"Not realizing they oversee the country's weapons stockpile"
Getting rid of the penny seems sensible to me. But there are arguments on both sides. Here are a few. 1/
February 13, 2025 at 6:21 AM
Getting rid of the penny seems sensible to me. But there are arguments on both sides. Here are a few. 1/
Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽
This is a useful example of how economists’ mental model of climate change leads us astray.
The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy.
That's wrong 🧵
The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy.
That's wrong 🧵
February 11, 2025 at 4:02 PM
This is a useful example of how economists’ mental model of climate change leads us astray.
The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy.
That's wrong 🧵
The idea is that optimal climate policy is a carbon tax of ~$200/ton, and IRA is equivalent to a carbon tax around $10/ton, so we need 20x stronger policy.
That's wrong 🧵
Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽
🚨 Oprea (2024 AER) argued that prospect theory choice anomalies were not due to risk, but due to complexity-driven mistakes.
But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.
But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.
A new working paper with Daniel Banki, @urisohn.bsky.social and Robert Walatka, just submitted to SSRN.
The paper is comment on Ryan Oprea's recent AER paper.
The paper is processing, but you, my friends, get early entry.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
The paper is comment on Ryan Oprea's recent AER paper.
The paper is processing, but you, my friends, get early entry.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
February 7, 2025 at 1:38 AM
🚨 Oprea (2024 AER) argued that prospect theory choice anomalies were not due to risk, but due to complexity-driven mistakes.
But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.
But this new analysis convinces me that Oprea (2024) is substantially wrong. In my opinion, the paper should be retracted.
Private money? Should the government be so heavily involved in our monetary system? Do we even need a central bank? These are questions discussed in section 9 of my new “Money and Banking” chapter:
eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...
eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...
eml.berkeley.edu
January 24, 2025 at 2:37 PM
Private money? Should the government be so heavily involved in our monetary system? Do we even need a central bank? These are questions discussed in section 9 of my new “Money and Banking” chapter:
eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...
eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...
Just posted a new textbook chapter on “Money and Banking.” Covers bank runs, panics, banking regulation, lender of last resort, payment systems, development of paper money, ledger-based money, fractional reserve banking, bills of exchange, free banking, and more!
eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...
eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...
eml.berkeley.edu
January 23, 2025 at 2:05 PM
Just posted a new textbook chapter on “Money and Banking.” Covers bank runs, panics, banking regulation, lender of last resort, payment systems, development of paper money, ledger-based money, fractional reserve banking, bills of exchange, free banking, and more!
eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...
eml.berkeley.edu/~jsteinsson/...
The end of history viewpoint so prevalent in contemporary thought is dealt another severe blow: venal corruption and systematic corruption are back. This like other 'I didn't think that could happen again' moments underscore the value of economic history and history more generally.
January 19, 2025 at 11:26 PM
The end of history viewpoint so prevalent in contemporary thought is dealt another severe blow: venal corruption and systematic corruption are back. This like other 'I didn't think that could happen again' moments underscore the value of economic history and history more generally.
Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽
NYT: Trump begins selling a new crypto token, in a move assailed as an ethical breach. “It is literally cashing in on the presidency — creating a financial instrument so people can transfer money to the president’s family” one ethics lawyer said
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
Trump begins selling a new crypto token, in a move assailed as an ethical breach.
www.nytimes.com
January 18, 2025 at 7:55 PM
NYT: Trump begins selling a new crypto token, in a move assailed as an ethical breach. “It is literally cashing in on the presidency — creating a financial instrument so people can transfer money to the president’s family” one ethics lawyer said
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
www.nytimes.com/live/2025/01...
David Brooks nails it:
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/15/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/15/o...
Opinion | Pete Hegseth Is the Secretary of Defense We Deserve
If you thought the former TV host would be asked important questions at the confirmation hearings this week, you must be living under the illusion that we live in a serious country.
www.nytimes.com
January 16, 2025 at 1:04 AM
David Brooks nails it:
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/15/o...
www.nytimes.com/2025/01/15/o...
This is a super interesting paper cognitive endurance.
December 30, 2024 at 12:51 AM
This is a super interesting paper cognitive endurance.
Reposted by Jón Steinsson 🗽
this abstract is INSANE
December 28, 2024 at 1:04 PM
this abstract is INSANE
John Joseph Wallis's 2006 paper "The Concept of Systematic Corruption in American History" is a ridiculously good paper. We usually think of corruption as rent seeking. But systematic corruption is rent creating to feed a political coalition. This is a huge barrier to growth.
December 28, 2024 at 6:35 AM
John Joseph Wallis's 2006 paper "The Concept of Systematic Corruption in American History" is a ridiculously good paper. We usually think of corruption as rent seeking. But systematic corruption is rent creating to feed a political coalition. This is a huge barrier to growth.
One dissent, but four dissenting dots! (Can you spot them?)
December 18, 2024 at 10:31 PM
One dissent, but four dissenting dots! (Can you spot them?)
The serving size of my kids' advent calendar is three pieces!?! My son argues that he should be able to open three per day or have three calendars! I'm in a real bind here. What is corporate America smoking!
December 15, 2024 at 9:18 PM
The serving size of my kids' advent calendar is three pieces!?! My son argues that he should be able to open three per day or have three calendars! I'm in a real bind here. What is corporate America smoking!
Intercontinental electrical cables! Now that is a cool technology! Hope it becomes economical soon.
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
Security and efficiency: The case for connecting Europe and North America | Ember
ember-energy.org
December 15, 2024 at 2:49 AM
Intercontinental electrical cables! Now that is a cool technology! Hope it becomes economical soon.
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...
ember-energy.org/latest-insig...