@jonesybear.bsky.social
UCL data. Used by the IFS in their paper on VAT. Also published in the times.
Here’s the original graph, plus the same flipped upside down to show quite how many of the richest are not in private schools.
Here’s the original graph, plus the same flipped upside down to show quite how many of the richest are not in private schools.
October 29, 2025 at 8:39 PM
UCL data. Used by the IFS in their paper on VAT. Also published in the times.
Here’s the original graph, plus the same flipped upside down to show quite how many of the richest are not in private schools.
Here’s the original graph, plus the same flipped upside down to show quite how many of the richest are not in private schools.
Only slightly in the private sector. Public sector yes, significantly. Out of work numbers look horrible. Higher than Covid.
October 15, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Only slightly in the private sector. Public sector yes, significantly. Out of work numbers look horrible. Higher than Covid.
And the same graph flipped on its head to show how many high earners that actually mean use state schools:
October 3, 2025 at 6:59 AM
And the same graph flipped on its head to show how many high earners that actually mean use state schools:
The UCL income data the IFS used in their paper on Private School VAT. Here it is in graphical form:
October 2, 2025 at 9:24 AM
The UCL income data the IFS used in their paper on Private School VAT. Here it is in graphical form:
These are just the grammar schools in Kent. Look at the facilities of them and look at the almost complete lack of any child from a deprived background.
September 30, 2025 at 6:23 PM
These are just the grammar schools in Kent. Look at the facilities of them and look at the almost complete lack of any child from a deprived background.
Nearly 16k by Jan25, vs a prediction of 3k by July 25. It is in there. Where are you looking in there that refutes it.
Screenshot one from VAT impact doc. Screenshot 2 from pupil number query using school type (detailed) in the .gov stats.
Screenshot one from VAT impact doc. Screenshot 2 from pupil number query using school type (detailed) in the .gov stats.
September 29, 2025 at 10:36 AM
Nearly 16k by Jan25, vs a prediction of 3k by July 25. It is in there. Where are you looking in there that refutes it.
Screenshot one from VAT impact doc. Screenshot 2 from pupil number query using school type (detailed) in the .gov stats.
Screenshot one from VAT impact doc. Screenshot 2 from pupil number query using school type (detailed) in the .gov stats.
They shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near education, on that basis.
September 24, 2025 at 12:19 PM
They shouldn’t be allowed anywhere near education, on that basis.
PS parent does not equal affluent (see data from UCL below) so taxing them doesn’t fix anything.
How and why do you propose we stop parents trying to do the best for their kids with the resources they have, state or private, tutors, books, trips?
How and why do you propose we stop parents trying to do the best for their kids with the resources they have, state or private, tutors, books, trips?
September 1, 2025 at 5:51 AM
PS parent does not equal affluent (see data from UCL below) so taxing them doesn’t fix anything.
How and why do you propose we stop parents trying to do the best for their kids with the resources they have, state or private, tutors, books, trips?
How and why do you propose we stop parents trying to do the best for their kids with the resources they have, state or private, tutors, books, trips?
Data from UCL study on PS family incomes.
Education is a merit good like food (zero rated), medicine, dentistry, books. More of it benefits society. It’s daft to tax it and it still is exempt unless you are 5-18.
Education is a merit good like food (zero rated), medicine, dentistry, books. More of it benefits society. It’s daft to tax it and it still is exempt unless you are 5-18.
August 30, 2025 at 11:10 PM
Data from UCL study on PS family incomes.
Education is a merit good like food (zero rated), medicine, dentistry, books. More of it benefits society. It’s daft to tax it and it still is exempt unless you are 5-18.
Education is a merit good like food (zero rated), medicine, dentistry, books. More of it benefits society. It’s daft to tax it and it still is exempt unless you are 5-18.
Private school VAT has forced 5x more pupils out of their schools than the government predicted at this stage. 16k vs. 3k projected.
At that rate it will cost money.
At that rate it will cost money.
August 15, 2025 at 7:50 AM
Private school VAT has forced 5x more pupils out of their schools than the government predicted at this stage. 16k vs. 3k projected.
At that rate it will cost money.
At that rate it will cost money.
Sam anti private school and his desperate attempt to draw a line under a policy, the impact of which no one projected we’d see more than a tenth of in year 1 is cowardly.
It’s also wrong. Pupil numbers have fallen 5x faster than the government predicted at this stage.
It’s also wrong. Pupil numbers have fallen 5x faster than the government predicted at this stage.
August 14, 2025 at 10:26 PM
Sam anti private school and his desperate attempt to draw a line under a policy, the impact of which no one projected we’d see more than a tenth of in year 1 is cowardly.
It’s also wrong. Pupil numbers have fallen 5x faster than the government predicted at this stage.
It’s also wrong. Pupil numbers have fallen 5x faster than the government predicted at this stage.
They are not the top 7% of earners at all. That is a myth you have fallen for.
August 12, 2025 at 1:12 PM
They are not the top 7% of earners at all. That is a myth you have fallen for.
The government, the IFS and the OBR.
All said the year 1 impact would be small, compared to long term.
The government include a projection over 5yrs.
3k by July 25 vs. Actuals of nearly 16k in Jan 25
www.gov.uk/government/c...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
All said the year 1 impact would be small, compared to long term.
The government include a projection over 5yrs.
3k by July 25 vs. Actuals of nearly 16k in Jan 25
www.gov.uk/government/c...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
August 12, 2025 at 10:50 AM
The government, the IFS and the OBR.
All said the year 1 impact would be small, compared to long term.
The government include a projection over 5yrs.
3k by July 25 vs. Actuals of nearly 16k in Jan 25
www.gov.uk/government/c...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
All said the year 1 impact would be small, compared to long term.
The government include a projection over 5yrs.
3k by July 25 vs. Actuals of nearly 16k in Jan 25
www.gov.uk/government/c...
www.gov.uk/government/p...
As a cohort, they are more diverse than you describe. Significantly more.
About 1/8 on median family income and below.
Obviously many of the rich use them. The vast majority don’t and get you to pay instead for their 1st class education bought by house price.
About 1/8 on median family income and below.
Obviously many of the rich use them. The vast majority don’t and get you to pay instead for their 1st class education bought by house price.
August 11, 2025 at 10:30 PM
As a cohort, they are more diverse than you describe. Significantly more.
About 1/8 on median family income and below.
Obviously many of the rich use them. The vast majority don’t and get you to pay instead for their 1st class education bought by house price.
About 1/8 on median family income and below.
Obviously many of the rich use them. The vast majority don’t and get you to pay instead for their 1st class education bought by house price.
Incorrect. You need to exclude SEN schools. You also need to consider that the government, IFS and OBR all predicted what was seen in yr1 was the tip of the iceberg. 16k so far bs 3k expected. Running at 5x the rate.
August 11, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Incorrect. You need to exclude SEN schools. You also need to consider that the government, IFS and OBR all predicted what was seen in yr1 was the tip of the iceberg. 16k so far bs 3k expected. Running at 5x the rate.
Not mainstream schools, just the ones which cost the taxpayer money.
5x the number of pupils gone from mainstream than the government predicted at this stage. 16k in Jan vs 3k expected by July (out of a total of 37k, which is looking fanciful).
5x the number of pupils gone from mainstream than the government predicted at this stage. 16k in Jan vs 3k expected by July (out of a total of 37k, which is looking fanciful).
August 11, 2025 at 6:02 PM
Not mainstream schools, just the ones which cost the taxpayer money.
5x the number of pupils gone from mainstream than the government predicted at this stage. 16k in Jan vs 3k expected by July (out of a total of 37k, which is looking fanciful).
5x the number of pupils gone from mainstream than the government predicted at this stage. 16k in Jan vs 3k expected by July (out of a total of 37k, which is looking fanciful).
I didn’t say it would be 33%
But anyway here is the government projection over 5 years. Note the 3k expected by July 25 vs the 16k seen in Jan25.
Ignoring time difference (which is in gov favour)
3/37k =0.08 of the impact seen so far
16/0.08=200
200/600=0.333
So run rate is pretty close.
But anyway here is the government projection over 5 years. Note the 3k expected by July 25 vs the 16k seen in Jan25.
Ignoring time difference (which is in gov favour)
3/37k =0.08 of the impact seen so far
16/0.08=200
200/600=0.333
So run rate is pretty close.
August 11, 2025 at 2:21 PM
I didn’t say it would be 33%
But anyway here is the government projection over 5 years. Note the 3k expected by July 25 vs the 16k seen in Jan25.
Ignoring time difference (which is in gov favour)
3/37k =0.08 of the impact seen so far
16/0.08=200
200/600=0.333
So run rate is pretty close.
But anyway here is the government projection over 5 years. Note the 3k expected by July 25 vs the 16k seen in Jan25.
Ignoring time difference (which is in gov favour)
3/37k =0.08 of the impact seen so far
16/0.08=200
200/600=0.333
So run rate is pretty close.
No, it’s the number of children forced out of mainstream independents by Jan25, vs a gov estimate of 3k by July 25
August 11, 2025 at 2:09 PM
No, it’s the number of children forced out of mainstream independents by Jan25, vs a gov estimate of 3k by July 25
If you think this is a rational position to hold, you do not have an adequate grasp of reality.
August 11, 2025 at 11:29 AM
If you think this is a rational position to hold, you do not have an adequate grasp of reality.
The vast majority of 7% at PS do not have titles and land.
You are talking about a tiny elite. The 0.1%. Those using the elite boarding schools here and around the world.
17% of a-level students use private schools and the income distribution of families at them is not what you think.
You are talking about a tiny elite. The 0.1%. Those using the elite boarding schools here and around the world.
17% of a-level students use private schools and the income distribution of families at them is not what you think.
August 11, 2025 at 10:12 AM
The vast majority of 7% at PS do not have titles and land.
You are talking about a tiny elite. The 0.1%. Those using the elite boarding schools here and around the world.
17% of a-level students use private schools and the income distribution of families at them is not what you think.
You are talking about a tiny elite. The 0.1%. Those using the elite boarding schools here and around the world.
17% of a-level students use private schools and the income distribution of families at them is not what you think.
August 11, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Where is your data for secondary places awarded in September from?
Pupil stats show this over last few years:
Pupil stats show this over last few years:
August 11, 2025 at 8:11 AM
Where is your data for secondary places awarded in September from?
Pupil stats show this over last few years:
Pupil stats show this over last few years:
No not similar rate to previous years at all.
August 11, 2025 at 7:19 AM
No not similar rate to previous years at all.
16k forced out already, vs a government estimate of 3k so far. 5x the rate.
Gov statistics.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/c...
Gov statistics.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/c...
August 11, 2025 at 6:38 AM
16k forced out already, vs a government estimate of 3k so far. 5x the rate.
Gov statistics.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/c...
Gov statistics.
www.gov.uk/government/p...
www.gov.uk/government/c...