Jonathan Ladd
@jonathanmladd.com
I'm a political scientist in @mccourtschool.bsky.social. I study trust in institutions and media effects on the public.
Web page: https://www.jonathanmladd.com/
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J6tt69QAAAAJ&hl
Apologies for typos.
Web page: https://www.jonathanmladd.com/
Google Scholar: https://scholar.google.com/citations?user=J6tt69QAAAAJ&hl
Apologies for typos.
There's lots of bad work in every type of human endeavor. And that's true of political science. But there's lots of great work as well.
I'll just note that Keynes famous quote about economic ideas applies to political science ideas frequently.
I'll just note that Keynes famous quote about economic ideas applies to political science ideas frequently.
December 10, 2025 at 8:08 PM
There's lots of bad work in every type of human endeavor. And that's true of political science. But there's lots of great work as well.
I'll just note that Keynes famous quote about economic ideas applies to political science ideas frequently.
I'll just note that Keynes famous quote about economic ideas applies to political science ideas frequently.
7 months ago, some of us argued that young people are highly responsive to the "nature of the times" (Campbell et al 1960) because they are relatively less politically engaged. Thus, their pro-Republican movement in 2024 was likely not a stable generational difference. It looks like we were right.
December 8, 2025 at 7:20 PM
7 months ago, some of us argued that young people are highly responsive to the "nature of the times" (Campbell et al 1960) because they are relatively less politically engaged. Thus, their pro-Republican movement in 2024 was likely not a stable generational difference. It looks like we were right.
Abraham Lincoln said that an “electric cord” connects all our waves of immigrant generations to the founding principles of human equality and republican government. Commitment to these principles, not blood and soil, makes people Americans. www.uvu.edu/ccs/docs/lin...
December 7, 2025 at 1:50 PM
Abraham Lincoln said that an “electric cord” connects all our waves of immigrant generations to the founding principles of human equality and republican government. Commitment to these principles, not blood and soil, makes people Americans. www.uvu.edu/ccs/docs/lin...
We infer that there should be a Chief Justice because it is mentioned once in Article 1, where it says he will preside at impeachment trials. But no other explanation of this office is given anywhere. This is the only appearance of the term in the entire Constitution.
December 6, 2025 at 4:03 AM
We infer that there should be a Chief Justice because it is mentioned once in Article 1, where it says he will preside at impeachment trials. But no other explanation of this office is given anywhere. This is the only appearance of the term in the entire Constitution.
A Georgetown Medical School postcard from the late 1960s, showing the main Georgetown campus before the ICC, the Leavey Center, or anything at all on the west section of the campus was built.
December 5, 2025 at 12:45 PM
A Georgetown Medical School postcard from the late 1960s, showing the main Georgetown campus before the ICC, the Leavey Center, or anything at all on the west section of the campus was built.
Postcards from America after the decline of traditional religion: "I turned to astrology to help me escape from therapy-speak."
December 4, 2025 at 10:43 PM
Postcards from America after the decline of traditional religion: "I turned to astrology to help me escape from therapy-speak."
I’ve learn I am in the top 0.04% of Spotify users in terms of listening to Josh Ritter. I’m his #865th top listener globally. Can I get some complimentary shwag or ticket upgrades for this?
December 4, 2025 at 4:29 PM
I’ve learn I am in the top 0.04% of Spotify users in terms of listening to Josh Ritter. I’m his #865th top listener globally. Can I get some complimentary shwag or ticket upgrades for this?
There may be a real treatment effect on pure independents. But unfortunately, even using the large sample size of the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey (over 22,000), we couldn't estimate a treatment effect on them with much precision.
December 2, 2025 at 3:15 PM
There may be a real treatment effect on pure independents. But unfortunately, even using the large sample size of the 2000 National Annenberg Election Survey (over 22,000), we couldn't estimate a treatment effect on them with much precision.
Abraham Lincoln, 1855.
www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/spee...
www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/spee...
![I am not a Know-Nothing. That is certain. How could I be? How can any one who abhors the oppression of negroes, be in favor or degrading classes of white people? Our progress in degeneracy appears to me to be pretty rapid. As a nation, we began by declaring that "all men are created equal." We now practically read it "all men are created equal, except negroes" When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read "all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics." When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretence of loving liberty -- to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocracy [sic].](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:egd33s7iuqsmwlwab6mbtrqi/bafkreiaaicjid4jg3oongeah73ukqvwsqv4vwbp75q4f755nldtcfermhi@jpeg)
November 28, 2025 at 3:01 PM
Abraham Lincoln, 1855.
www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/spee...
www.abrahamlincolnonline.org/lincoln/spee...
It's important to remember why this is true. The president's command of the armed forces comes only from the Constitution. He has no magical authority beyond it. And the Constitution also says that Congress has the power to "make rules for the government and regulation" of those armed forces. 1/1
November 26, 2025 at 1:51 AM
It's important to remember why this is true. The president's command of the armed forces comes only from the Constitution. He has no magical authority beyond it. And the Constitution also says that Congress has the power to "make rules for the government and regulation" of those armed forces. 1/1
Before marrying V.O. Key, Cora Luella Gettys was one of the first women to receive a PhD in political science. In addition to publications in her own name, she was an RA to many political scientists in the "Chicago School" in the 20s & 30s, and edited without authorship VO's most influential books.
November 25, 2025 at 4:34 PM
Before marrying V.O. Key, Cora Luella Gettys was one of the first women to receive a PhD in political science. In addition to publications in her own name, she was an RA to many political scientists in the "Chicago School" in the 20s & 30s, and edited without authorship VO's most influential books.
In the GSS, the much-discussed U.S. decline in sexual activity is primarily concentrated among married people of all ages and among singles in their teens and early 20s. The overall decline in the marriage rate has also caused the overall decline in activity.
(Analysis by @ryanburge.bsky.social.)
(Analysis by @ryanburge.bsky.social.)
November 25, 2025 at 3:00 PM
In the GSS, the much-discussed U.S. decline in sexual activity is primarily concentrated among married people of all ages and among singles in their teens and early 20s. The overall decline in the marriage rate has also caused the overall decline in activity.
(Analysis by @ryanburge.bsky.social.)
(Analysis by @ryanburge.bsky.social.)
I don't think this is a correct description of America's party system.
November 22, 2025 at 7:28 PM
I don't think this is a correct description of America's party system.
If high schools and elite colleges are holding students and teachers accountable for AP test results, you have a strong incentive to fix this problem.
November 19, 2025 at 2:14 PM
If high schools and elite colleges are holding students and teachers accountable for AP test results, you have a strong incentive to fix this problem.
To review:
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
November 13, 2025 at 4:50 PM
To review:
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
Email #1: Jeff Epstein says he "gave" a 20-year old girl to Trump
Email #2: Epstein says Trump "knew about the girls" he was recruiting at Mara Lago for his pedophile ring and Trump never reported it.
Email #3: Epstein says an underage victim "spent hours" at Epstein's house with Trump
Elon Musk pretending to have read the Iliad (and learned important lessons from it!) when chatting with Marc Andreessen reminds me of how Nick Klegg said tech elites all “claim to read the same books.” www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
November 11, 2025 at 5:00 PM
Elon Musk pretending to have read the Iliad (and learned important lessons from it!) when chatting with Marc Andreessen reminds me of how Nick Klegg said tech elites all “claim to read the same books.” www.bloomberg.com/news/newslet...
You can also see it as a particular form of whataboutism:
"You think what this politician is doing is bad, but what about how the Democrats didn't already reform the system to block all bad behavior like this. Isn't it really their fault?"
"You think what this politician is doing is bad, but what about how the Democrats didn't already reform the system to block all bad behavior like this. Isn't it really their fault?"
November 6, 2025 at 4:57 PM
You can also see it as a particular form of whataboutism:
"You think what this politician is doing is bad, but what about how the Democrats didn't already reform the system to block all bad behavior like this. Isn't it really their fault?"
"You think what this politician is doing is bad, but what about how the Democrats didn't already reform the system to block all bad behavior like this. Isn't it really their fault?"
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
November 5, 2025 at 3:11 AM
It looks like public polls had a small Republican bias in VA and a relatively large one in NJ this year.
More evidence of the decline in the magnitude all types of personal vote and candidate effects in a variety of different parts of the U.S. political system.
November 5, 2025 at 2:46 AM
More evidence of the decline in the magnitude all types of personal vote and candidate effects in a variety of different parts of the U.S. political system.
Dick Cheney published his APSR with Aage R. Clausen. As a grad student, Clausen worked on the American Voter (1960) and is credited with inventing the feeling thermometer. In terms of coauthorship, Cheney is two degrees of separation from Converse and Miller. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
November 4, 2025 at 6:47 PM
Dick Cheney published his APSR with Aage R. Clausen. As a grad student, Clausen worked on the American Voter (1960) and is credited with inventing the feeling thermometer. In terms of coauthorship, Cheney is two degrees of separation from Converse and Miller. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
As a herding test, we compare polls' distance from the prior 7-day polling average and to the subsequent 7-day average. Differences btw pre- and post-release deviation were statistically indistinguishable for all but one firm. The clustering does not seem to be from mirroring past polling averages.
October 29, 2025 at 9:05 PM
As a herding test, we compare polls' distance from the prior 7-day polling average and to the subsequent 7-day average. Differences btw pre- and post-release deviation were statistically indistinguishable for all but one firm. The clustering does not seem to be from mirroring past polling averages.
We struggled to find differences in accuracy (absolute or signed errors) across sampling and/or data-collection methods. Lots of theoretical reasons to expect this to matter. But at the end of the day, essentially no detectable differences in accuracy overall.
October 29, 2025 at 8:56 PM
We struggled to find differences in accuracy (absolute or signed errors) across sampling and/or data-collection methods. Lots of theoretical reasons to expect this to matter. But at the end of the day, essentially no detectable differences in accuracy overall.
Polls have a harder time making vote proportion estimates for racial minority groups than for white voters. See the higher variation in the figure. E.g., polls mostly agree that Hispanic voters reduced their support for the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024, but disagree widely on how much.
October 29, 2025 at 8:50 PM
Polls have a harder time making vote proportion estimates for racial minority groups than for white voters. See the higher variation in the figure. E.g., polls mostly agree that Hispanic voters reduced their support for the Democratic candidate from 2020 to 2024, but disagree widely on how much.
Here's the absolute error (the average magnitude by which polls were wrong in any direction) and the signed error (the average bias) in state and national presidential polls since 1940.
October 29, 2025 at 8:31 PM
Here's the absolute error (the average magnitude by which polls were wrong in any direction) and the signed error (the average bias) in state and national presidential polls since 1940.
Here's the absolute error and the signed error (bias) by level since 2006. As you can see, the last presidential election with an average pro-Republican bias was 2012. A string of 3 presidential elections with average bias in the same direction is rare.
October 29, 2025 at 8:28 PM
Here's the absolute error and the signed error (bias) by level since 2006. As you can see, the last presidential election with an average pro-Republican bias was 2012. A string of 3 presidential elections with average bias in the same direction is rare.