Jolly's Market Thoughts
@jollyspears.bsky.social
Sharing my current thoughts on the market and hopefully I'll be right more often than not. If not, just roast me and show me your gains.
-Jollyamoeba
-Jollyamoeba
Economic data week ending 5/31:
5/29 at 8:30am: GDP Q1 first revision. Previous Q1 GDP numbers crushed the S&P and saw a day of much higher volatility.
5/30 at 8:30am: PCE data
It's hard to keep up with what tariffs exist and which are postponed. PCE should start reflecting this.
5/29 at 8:30am: GDP Q1 first revision. Previous Q1 GDP numbers crushed the S&P and saw a day of much higher volatility.
5/30 at 8:30am: PCE data
It's hard to keep up with what tariffs exist and which are postponed. PCE should start reflecting this.
May 28, 2025 at 1:11 PM
Economic data week ending 5/31:
5/29 at 8:30am: GDP Q1 first revision. Previous Q1 GDP numbers crushed the S&P and saw a day of much higher volatility.
5/30 at 8:30am: PCE data
It's hard to keep up with what tariffs exist and which are postponed. PCE should start reflecting this.
5/29 at 8:30am: GDP Q1 first revision. Previous Q1 GDP numbers crushed the S&P and saw a day of much higher volatility.
5/30 at 8:30am: PCE data
It's hard to keep up with what tariffs exist and which are postponed. PCE should start reflecting this.
No economic data this week to pay attention to. Instead, it's more just waiting for momentum to pick up in either direction. The last week has seen the VIX going down and SPY upside stalling out. The catalyst for further upside is headlines around trade deals. #S&P500 #Stocks
May 21, 2025 at 1:25 AM
Economic data week ending 5/17:
May 13th, 8:30am: CPI
May 15th, 8:30am: PPI
May 15th, 8:40am: Jpowell speech
Current headlines around trade deals are stealing the show from any other market moving news. That being said, it's still important to pay attention to the inflation readings.
May 13th, 8:30am: CPI
May 15th, 8:30am: PPI
May 15th, 8:40am: Jpowell speech
Current headlines around trade deals are stealing the show from any other market moving news. That being said, it's still important to pay attention to the inflation readings.
May 12, 2025 at 4:38 PM
Economic data week ending 5/17:
May 13th, 8:30am: CPI
May 15th, 8:30am: PPI
May 15th, 8:40am: Jpowell speech
Current headlines around trade deals are stealing the show from any other market moving news. That being said, it's still important to pay attention to the inflation readings.
May 13th, 8:30am: CPI
May 15th, 8:30am: PPI
May 15th, 8:40am: Jpowell speech
Current headlines around trade deals are stealing the show from any other market moving news. That being said, it's still important to pay attention to the inflation readings.
The end of today's trading day wasn't confidence inspiring but at least #SPY ended up. If SPY can get another 1% higher before any sell off, I think that'll be enough to go bullish. The major story line is will Trump get any trade deals. If yes, be bullish, if no, stay bearish. #S&P500 #Daytrade
May 9, 2025 at 3:01 AM
Today was very muted compared to standard Fed Press Conference days. #Jpowell gave another higher for longer and wait and see speech. To me, he sounded nervous at the start with a hint of optimism toward the end. I'm paying extra attention to tomorrow's movement. #Daytrade #SPY #Stocks
May 7, 2025 at 11:08 PM
It turns out #SPY can go down. With the Fed meeting just around the corner that's where all eyes will be. There's been many times in the past when a single question during the press conference changed the direction of day. Sit tight until then and see what #Jpowell says. #Daytrade #Stocks
May 6, 2025 at 1:39 AM
Economic data week ending 5/10:
May 7th 2pm: Fed Interest rate decision.
May 7th 2:30pm: Fed chair Powell press conference.
Wednesday is very important. There's almost no chance of a rate cut but Powell's thoughts on the economy moving forward will be important.
May 7th 2pm: Fed Interest rate decision.
May 7th 2:30pm: Fed chair Powell press conference.
Wednesday is very important. There's almost no chance of a rate cut but Powell's thoughts on the economy moving forward will be important.
May 5, 2025 at 2:32 PM
Economic data week ending 5/10:
May 7th 2pm: Fed Interest rate decision.
May 7th 2:30pm: Fed chair Powell press conference.
Wednesday is very important. There's almost no chance of a rate cut but Powell's thoughts on the economy moving forward will be important.
May 7th 2pm: Fed Interest rate decision.
May 7th 2:30pm: Fed chair Powell press conference.
Wednesday is very important. There's almost no chance of a rate cut but Powell's thoughts on the economy moving forward will be important.
Another solid up day for #SPY as it ends +1.46%. We're still trading upward without beneficial news, just hopes and dreams. If you are holding calls, I wouldn't blame you for continuing to hold. Headline risk does seem to be leaning towards possible good news. #Daytrade #S&P500 #Stocks
May 3, 2025 at 1:03 AM
#SPY opened higher and closed near the open. This is a decent follow through after yesterday's V recovery. With the final 10 minutes moving lower I wouldn't be holding for an additional day. For a longer position, I'm still waiting for the news to match the movement. #Daytrade #S&P500 #Stocks
May 2, 2025 at 2:38 AM
I didn't have GDP numbers on my list of market moving data but I'll have to add it for the next few months. Today was the first time I've seen it affect the stock market like this. With #SPY having a giant V recovery that certainly feels bullish for the next couple days. #Daytrade #Stocks #S&P500
May 1, 2025 at 1:49 AM
Economic data week ending 5/2:
PCE - Wednesday at 10am.
Unemployment data - Friday at 830am.
We're almost at the point where tariffs will be affecting these data releases. There's also plenty of companies with earnings this week.
PCE - Wednesday at 10am.
Unemployment data - Friday at 830am.
We're almost at the point where tariffs will be affecting these data releases. There's also plenty of companies with earnings this week.
April 29, 2025 at 1:38 AM
Economic data week ending 5/2:
PCE - Wednesday at 10am.
Unemployment data - Friday at 830am.
We're almost at the point where tariffs will be affecting these data releases. There's also plenty of companies with earnings this week.
PCE - Wednesday at 10am.
Unemployment data - Friday at 830am.
We're almost at the point where tariffs will be affecting these data releases. There's also plenty of companies with earnings this week.
#SPY closed at $546.55, right at the $546 level I'm watching. Markets have been trending higher in tariff cut hopes but there's still no good news. If tomorrow is an additional follow through day and the Whitehouse gives a solid trade news update, I could see a ton of upside potential. #Daytrade
April 24, 2025 at 9:45 PM
#SPY ended up +1.55% but at one point today was up over 3%. Half the day's gains were erased as tariff deal optimism fell off. SPY still hasn't eclipsed where it was during that huge 9% up day. If we can get above $546 on solid momentum, I may change my bearish thesis. Until then, still bearish.
April 23, 2025 at 10:17 PM
#SPY ended up +1.55% but at one point today was up over 3%. Half the day's gains were erased as tariff deal optimism fell off. SPY still hasn't eclipsed where it was during that huge 9% up day. If we can get above $546 on solid momentum, I may change my bearish thesis. Until then, still bearish.
Dip buyers did in fact come in today. News of "possible" deals fueling the market. Headline risk in either direction remains high and even when bearish its still best to stay out and wait for a basing pattern in price action or actual good news on tariffs. #Stocks #Daytrade #SPY
April 23, 2025 at 1:11 AM
#SPY down 2.36%. Tomorrow will be very telling if dip buyers come in. Right now my assumption is that we're going to retest the recent swing low fairly soon. Markets are on edge with recent Trump comments and no good news (yet) on trade deals. Bearish until proven otherwise. #Stocks #S&P500
April 22, 2025 at 12:05 AM
Economic data week ending 4/26:
None!
Instead today I'll speak about the continued attack on #Jpowell by the Trump admin. Over the last several years I have been very impressed with how the fed board has conducted themselves. Did they initially wait too long to raise rates during covid?
None!
Instead today I'll speak about the continued attack on #Jpowell by the Trump admin. Over the last several years I have been very impressed with how the fed board has conducted themselves. Did they initially wait too long to raise rates during covid?
April 21, 2025 at 6:05 PM
Economic data week ending 4/26:
None!
Instead today I'll speak about the continued attack on #Jpowell by the Trump admin. Over the last several years I have been very impressed with how the fed board has conducted themselves. Did they initially wait too long to raise rates during covid?
None!
Instead today I'll speak about the continued attack on #Jpowell by the Trump admin. Over the last several years I have been very impressed with how the fed board has conducted themselves. Did they initially wait too long to raise rates during covid?
All the signs were there for today to be a return to the downside. #SPY ended down 2.21%. Fed chair Powell warning that keeping inflation under control with these tariffs is going to be a challenge. This was an expected speech but the market was hoping for signs of rate cuts. #Stocks #Daytrade
April 16, 2025 at 8:16 PM
A day where #SPY "only" moves 1.79% feels like a calm day. Today everyone was able to step back and relax for a moment. China did increase their retaliatory tariffs and the long term effects are still a question mark. Pay attention to headlines this weekend. #Stocks #S&P500
April 11, 2025 at 11:04 PM
Reality came back into existence as #SPY ended down 4.36%. Tariffs haven't gone anywhere and the long term implications are still unknown. Will we make a deal with China? Will Trump have to cave on tariffs if consumer prices get too high? With so many unknowns, it's best to wait on the sidelines.
April 10, 2025 at 10:00 PM
Reality came back into existence as #SPY ended down 4.36%. Tariffs haven't gone anywhere and the long term implications are still unknown. Will we make a deal with China? Will Trump have to cave on tariffs if consumer prices get too high? With so many unknowns, it's best to wait on the sidelines.
HEADLINE RISK. Another wild day in the markets. #SPY went up 9.45%. I said before that even when we saw a huge upside day I still couldn't turn bullish. I stand by that, for now. Right now everyone is trading based on the tweets of a president. I don't think that's sustainable. #Stocks
April 10, 2025 at 12:49 AM
Today more market participants saw an opportunity to get out as even more tariffs were looming. #SPY was up over 3% and then ended down 1.51%. I'm still just being patient and waiting for a basing pattern, better headlines, and a lower #VIX. I could be eating popcorn for a while. #Daytrade #Stocks
April 8, 2025 at 10:10 PM