Please give them the entire paper; this (descriptive) plot may be thought-provoking, but by itself it's difficult to interpret. (I'm one of the authors)

Do you include potentially reduced incentives to innovate in the "no war" counterfactual? What's your assessment of those?

Also great work on the Roman economy.

Further unraveling: we'll see, I'm not that optimistic. I would have preferred it if the US had unilaterally withdrawn from the WTO. I agree on incidence.

Yes, that's exactly what I'm worried about (but it will take 5-10y to evaluate). The EU is effectively showing the middle finger to MFN.

But at the price of sacrificing the world trading system...

"Contracts as reference points"?

Does that mean that the 'mistake' was merely to use this particular justification, and if they find a somewhat less creative justification, there is little that the courts would do to stop tariffs?

The real Austrian response is "depends on who's asking" :)

Whenever you need a model/estimator that isn't already available in 'canned' form (i.e. whenever you need to write the optimization problem yourself). If you stick with OLS/IV/PPML/logit/probit your're usually fine w/ R or stata.

They can't; the Calvo fairy didn't let them today

Thank you! The CEPR discussion paper version is gated; here's the ungated (and up-to-date) draft: jmboehm.github.io/coins.pdf