The AGF experience shows what happens when governments fail to build a good process to take forward ideas to raise finance.

$1.3tn is a much bigger goal, so this time we can't let this process peter out.

The Roadmap is not perfect but it's a good basis to craft a balanced process to scale finance.

The AGF's 2010 report put forward a swathe of ideas, including solidarity levies on shipping and aviation.

COP16 "took note" of the report and then...nothing. No systematic effort to follow up any of the recommendations.

Fast forward to 2020 and developed countries fell short of the $100bn goal.

g) Finally, the option to quantify the #ParisAgreement Art 9.4 aim for "balance" as 50:50 adaptation:mitigation.

Assuming the current proportion of public finance in the $300bn as in the $100bn (80%, $240bn), this would mean $120bn in 2035.

Very similar to tripling 2025 levels by 2035!

Then there's other tripling formulations:

c) Tripling 2022 levels (i.e. latest data) by 2030: lower baseline year, lower goal
d) Tripling 2025 levels by 2035: allowing a decade rather than five years

e) & f) Including private mobilized finance leads to ~$10bn higher goals in the delivery year.

a) Tripling the 2025 doubling by 2030 requires a 25% annual growth rate in #adaptation finance, well above the 15% seen between 2019 and 2022.

b) Continuing the 15% historic growth rate gets $77bn in 2030, then $157bn by 2035 due to compounding effects.

Probably unlikely given political situations

Countries at #COP30 are discussing a potential new #adaptationfinance goal.

I've updated the calculations from our August blog on potential options - removing some scenarios that haven't gained traction and adding others that have.

Lots of commentary on the #ICJ advisory opinion on obligations of States in respect of #climate change.

One thing I haven't seen discussed yet, which could have major implications for climate negotiations where developed or developing country status is key to so many obligations, is para 226:

Here's @nrdc.org's updated GCF @greenclimate.fund pledge tracker: www.nrdc.org/resources/gr...

Pleased to announce some significant upgrades to @nrdc.org's Climate Fund Pledge Trackers, with thanks to my excellent comms colleagues.

The graphics and tables are now interactive, embedable and downloadable.

Check them out here: www.nrdc.org/resources/cl...

"A common misconception held us back—the belief, popularised as “from billions to trillions”, that private capital was sitting on the sidelines, ready to be deployed." World Bank President Ajay Banga

I wonder where that misconception came from?

Oh right, a report the World Bank led!

Here's the receipts: fiftrustee.worldbank.org/en/about/uni...

As with emissions reductions, earlier action is better.
MDB reforms mean their climate finance will grow, and there's more to be pursued there. Multilateral climate funds also need to increase to meet the tripling outflows goal.
Contributors should scale up in at least a straight-line trajectory

Now that governments at #COP29 agreed the #NCQG, which sets out future goals for international climate finance, the focus turns to how they will be delivered.

Here are my thoughts, featuring more MS Paint graphics that I know @ed-king.bsky.social loves so much:
www.nrdc.org/bio/joe-thwa...

My read is that para 7 is any actor that contributes to international climate finance going to developing countries, all public and private finance. But not DRM. So it's akin to the IHLEG's "external finance" whereas para 8 is only public, private mobilised and alternative sources like the $100bn.

And para 9. It's not everything the EU and other developed countries pushed for but it does represent a significant change from the $100bn

As ministers at COP29 engage in intense negotiations on what amount to set for the new climate finance goal, the #NCQG, our model lets you explore different ways international climate finance can be scaled up: www.nrdc.org/bio/joe-thwa...

In light of yesterday's big MDB #climatefinance announcement at COP29, we've updated the business-as-usual scenario total in our #NCQG modelling from $173bn to $197bn in 2030.

More details here: www.nrdc.org/bio/joe-thwa...

This was where the picture came from. I think he was in London maybe?