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joemduncan.bsky.social
Joe Duncan
@joemduncan.bsky.social
220 followers 56 following 67 posts
Writer, editor, musician, artist: https://linktr.ee/joemduncan
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joemduncan.bsky.social
Man, I’ve been listening for a long time and this is top-3 Conspirituality. Even though I just finished the excellent book The Subversive Simone Weil, this brought a whole new perspective to their life. :)
September 21, 2025 at 1:49 AM
joemduncan.bsky.social
“When you have insomnia, you’re never fully awake and you’re never fully asleep.”
September 10, 2025 at 11:36 AM
joemduncan.bsky.social
You had me at Heidegger
September 7, 2025 at 6:01 AM
joemduncan.bsky.social
Dude, this is awesome beyond words. We should just make that photo into a meme of its own, no words, just whenever someone is on about AI hype nonsense, drop the Ed on ‘em.
September 7, 2025 at 6:00 AM
Reposted by Joe Duncan
edzitron.com
The AI bubble is bursting, and the things that will accelerate the collapse are NVIDIA's growth slowing, the death of AI startup funding, the collapse of a major AI startup, big tech turning on AI, and a collapse of neoclouds like CoreWeave.
www.wheresyoured.at/ai-bubble-20...
NVIDIA's Growth Slows: As discussed in the Hater's Guide To The AI Bubble, NVIDIA is the weak point in the Magnificent Seven (which collectively account for 35% of the value of the US stock market) specifically because of its success (19% of the Magnificent Seven's value) and value, which is driven entirely by its ability to sell more and more GPUs every single quarter. It is inevitable that its growth slows, and once it does, the AI story crumbles with it. Perhaps it has a down quarter then an up quarter — but that's three long months to make the markets happy. I will add that there's a chance the bubble reinflates a touch if NVIDIA crushes earnings. Or maybe the market doesn't care? We'll find out at the end of next week. AI Funding Will Start Drying Up, And AI Companies Are The Most Funding-Dependent Companies of All Time: As The Information wrote last week, the "dry powder" (available capital to invest in totality) has dropped, and venture capitalist Jon Sakoda of Decibel Partners believes that "...if VCs keep investing at today's clip, the industry would run out of money in six quarters." Removing OpenAI and Anthropic, the party will continue until 2028...but we all know those are the companies that are getting the money. One of the major AI companies will collapse: OpenAI and Anthropic both burn billions of dollars a year, and have shown no interest in stopping doing so, with Altman doing his best Lord Farquaad impression and saying that OpenAI is "willing to run at a loss" as long as it takes to get...somewhere. For the bubble to burst, one of these companies has to die, and I will explain how this might happen. In both of these cases, going public will be nigh-on impossible, and even if successful will expose what I believe to be their rotten economics. Big Tech Will Turn On AI: Meta's AI hiring freeze isn't enough: Meta, Google, Amazon or Microsoft needs to bring an end to their capex burn, and they need to be definitive that it's A) happening and B) that it's happening, at least in part, because they have "built enough" or "exceeded the opportunity in AI." These companies are barely making $35 billion in revenue from AI in 2025, and I doubt that revenue is increasing. Another part of this: The Markets Make Big Tech Put Up Or Shut Up: At no point have the markets really interrogated the revenue from AI. I can imagine some weird fucking games happening here. Microsoft, the only member of the Magnificent Seven outside of NVIDIA willing to talk about AI revenue, stopped reporting AI revenue in January, when it was at $13 billion "annualized" (so a little over $1 billion in revenue a month). One has to wonder if this means revenue is flat or falling, as annualized is monthx12. I can also see a scenario where these companies start putting out obtuse "AI-enabled" revenue stats. I do not think this works, and if it does, it only puts off the inevitable, because they cannot avoid the capex crunch that's coming. This particular scenario is one that will happen in pieces. AI Startups Will Start Dying: As I've discussed previously, AI companies are currently raising at suicidal valuations that make it impossible for them to ever sell or go public. CoreWeave Will Die: AI data center developer CoreWeave is a time bomb, burdened with, to quote analyst Gil Luria of DA Davidson, "deteriorating operating income." It’s also a critical partner to OpenAI, providing compute as part of an $11.9 billion five-year-long contract, despite the fact that it's unclear if it has even come close to finishing its data center development in Denton, Texas. This has to be done by October, in part because that's when OpenAI is due to pay Coreweave, and in part because that's when it has to start paying back its massive, multi-billion …
August 27, 2025 at 3:04 PM
joemduncan.bsky.social
This approach is why I’m there. Drives me bonkers when people only talk about money as if that’s the only thing that matters.

If they want a site with no ethical values that only cares about money, I can think of one but they’ll have to deal with literal Nazis all day long and it’s not pleasant.
August 24, 2025 at 8:42 AM