Joe Day
@joeday05.bsky.social
HR82. On Investing. The five big questions: 1. Do you love the assets?, 2. Is the business well-managed?, 3. Is it resilient?, 4. Why now?, 5. Is the stock reasonably priced? All you need to know.
This choice could very well determine the intermediate term future of Republicans and Trump. Top-down, politically-driven macro decisionmaking has generally bad outcomes and is always fraught.
December 13, 2025 at 12:18 AM
This choice could very well determine the intermediate term future of Republicans and Trump. Top-down, politically-driven macro decisionmaking has generally bad outcomes and is always fraught.
MAGA has always been about disrespect and grievance. Trump is a cathartic outlet for the movement. His deal has always been: you get yours as long as I get mine. As long as possible, Trump will continue to attack elites and institutions. The good news, this connection is transactional and fragile.
December 12, 2025 at 8:32 PM
MAGA has always been about disrespect and grievance. Trump is a cathartic outlet for the movement. His deal has always been: you get yours as long as I get mine. As long as possible, Trump will continue to attack elites and institutions. The good news, this connection is transactional and fragile.
Not sure but I’m guessing most ORCL shareholders own the stock for its sort of boring, resilient and sustainable business model.
December 11, 2025 at 5:27 PM
Not sure but I’m guessing most ORCL shareholders own the stock for its sort of boring, resilient and sustainable business model.
Right now, I think most of the low-hanging fruit is on the cost side, not revenues. There are tons of small corporate pilot programs happening, but I’m not aware of any big scaled implementations yet. Coding and code testing are examples. Also call centers.
December 9, 2025 at 4:58 PM
Right now, I think most of the low-hanging fruit is on the cost side, not revenues. There are tons of small corporate pilot programs happening, but I’m not aware of any big scaled implementations yet. Coding and code testing are examples. Also call centers.
I’m all for letting the market decide. Most of the good movies and shows will get made regardless of the number of platforms, but if they can all manage to make money, the more the merrier. The market will figure it all out.
December 6, 2025 at 4:36 AM
I’m all for letting the market decide. Most of the good movies and shows will get made regardless of the number of platforms, but if they can all manage to make money, the more the merrier. The market will figure it all out.
Group stages generally look like yawners.
December 5, 2025 at 9:06 PM
Group stages generally look like yawners.
We are already seeing the impact in politics. The coming months will be interesting.
December 4, 2025 at 11:18 PM
We are already seeing the impact in politics. The coming months will be interesting.
Ha. Unfortunately, it’s not getting more affordable because there is nothing to measure its affordability against. Bitcoin is just a price. Nothing more, nothing less.
December 2, 2025 at 3:44 AM
Ha. Unfortunately, it’s not getting more affordable because there is nothing to measure its affordability against. Bitcoin is just a price. Nothing more, nothing less.
GOOG hasn’t won anything (yet) but have always been well-positioned. They’re the only player with the whole stack: frontier model, data, proprietary chips and cloud, free cash flow, and a solid monetization strategy (search, YouTube, and Apple relationship) but still a long way to go in this race.
November 25, 2025 at 2:39 AM
GOOG hasn’t won anything (yet) but have always been well-positioned. They’re the only player with the whole stack: frontier model, data, proprietary chips and cloud, free cash flow, and a solid monetization strategy (search, YouTube, and Apple relationship) but still a long way to go in this race.
EVs use the vastly greater energy generated by braking to help recharge their batteries.
November 24, 2025 at 9:17 PM
EVs use the vastly greater energy generated by braking to help recharge their batteries.
Google and Facebook have big built-in advantages in terms of monetization. At the end of the day, this may prove decisive.
November 24, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Google and Facebook have big built-in advantages in terms of monetization. At the end of the day, this may prove decisive.
What’s interesting about crypto is that there is no underlying reason the price should trade at any particular level. It could trade down below $80 and keep going or turn on a dime and double in a week. It’s all about fear and greed.
November 21, 2025 at 6:07 PM
What’s interesting about crypto is that there is no underlying reason the price should trade at any particular level. It could trade down below $80 and keep going or turn on a dime and double in a week. It’s all about fear and greed.
The real question, why are they underinvesting? Back in the 80s and early 90s, the capital allocation focus was on M&A and “unlocking value.” Recently, we’ve gone from free money to where borrowing rates make company managers think long and hard. Valuations are again a real factor. Sticker shock.
November 18, 2025 at 7:13 PM
The real question, why are they underinvesting? Back in the 80s and early 90s, the capital allocation focus was on M&A and “unlocking value.” Recently, we’ve gone from free money to where borrowing rates make company managers think long and hard. Valuations are again a real factor. Sticker shock.
It’s simple. Over time, almost every job at almost every business is replaceable. One giant machine on one giant model makes everything, with the resulting profits accruing to the very few. New economy math.
November 18, 2025 at 6:55 PM
It’s simple. Over time, almost every job at almost every business is replaceable. One giant machine on one giant model makes everything, with the resulting profits accruing to the very few. New economy math.
In my mind, because there’s no underlying value, I’ve always used Bitcoin as a leading indicator of high risk assets and a longer lead for the overall market. Not sure if it will always work, but it makes sense to me. Meme stocks should also work.
November 15, 2025 at 2:12 PM
In my mind, because there’s no underlying value, I’ve always used Bitcoin as a leading indicator of high risk assets and a longer lead for the overall market. Not sure if it will always work, but it makes sense to me. Meme stocks should also work.
I think we’re talking the guy playing video games in his parents basement.
November 13, 2025 at 5:01 AM
I think we’re talking the guy playing video games in his parents basement.
It’s not good if it’s unexpected.
November 6, 2025 at 5:28 PM
It’s not good if it’s unexpected.
The appropriate response is, “vote us back in power.” One of these cycles, the opposition party won’t overreach when they get back in power. The first step for Dems is to rebuild a broken brand. Maybe flexibility would be more effective than dogma.
November 6, 2025 at 5:23 PM
The appropriate response is, “vote us back in power.” One of these cycles, the opposition party won’t overreach when they get back in power. The first step for Dems is to rebuild a broken brand. Maybe flexibility would be more effective than dogma.
Tech bros as a group have generally been tone deaf on social / political issues. Followers more than leaders.
November 6, 2025 at 12:50 AM
Tech bros as a group have generally been tone deaf on social / political issues. Followers more than leaders.
Often also, I think it’s people moving away from perceived worse options. It’s not just that Trump is good, it’s more that the other options are uncomfortable.
November 3, 2025 at 11:32 PM
Often also, I think it’s people moving away from perceived worse options. It’s not just that Trump is good, it’s more that the other options are uncomfortable.
People are as dumb as they have to be to avoid cognitive dissonance.
October 31, 2025 at 5:45 PM
People are as dumb as they have to be to avoid cognitive dissonance.
Building data centers and running frontier LLMs is high-risk/high-reward and the potential payout seems further and further away every day. I used to see this as an investor in commodity cyclicals. Every company invests at the top of the cycle because no one wants to be left behind. Game theory 101.
October 31, 2025 at 3:51 AM
Building data centers and running frontier LLMs is high-risk/high-reward and the potential payout seems further and further away every day. I used to see this as an investor in commodity cyclicals. Every company invests at the top of the cycle because no one wants to be left behind. Game theory 101.
I’m retired now, but I used to do this for a living. My advice, sadly, to those who aspire to manage other people’s money is not to take a balanced approach. My advice is to choose a lane, and focus your research efforts and bets. Being retired is such a luxury.
October 12, 2025 at 3:23 PM
I’m retired now, but I used to do this for a living. My advice, sadly, to those who aspire to manage other people’s money is not to take a balanced approach. My advice is to choose a lane, and focus your research efforts and bets. Being retired is such a luxury.