The takeaway:

Russia’s firepower isn’t shaping campaigns. It’s shaping narratives.
Fires unmoored from maneuver = danger for NATO.

Read the short report:
🔗 lnkd.in/g7QjmPqT
#MilitaryStrategy #Ukraine #DroneWarfare

Shaheds?

🛑 They show desperation.
More Shaheds = more losses, but not because they’re shaping ops.

They’re cheap, punitive, and aimed at civilians. Doctrine’s out the window.

✅ What does line up? Recon/strike UAVs.

These are linked to increased intensity—the real action is in the “security zone” where recon drones scout & fight for control.

21st-century skirmishing = man-machine info wars.

We built 3 regression models. The core question:
Do missile salvos lead to more intense combat days later?

❌ Not really. No strong association.
In fact, bigger salvos = fewer losses—suggesting coercion, not coordination.

Can you measure if Russia is fighting by its own doctrine?

Turns out, yes—and it’s not just about counting tanks.

In Operational Fires in the Age of Punishment, Ben and I dig into Russian missile, drone, & UAV activity.

Very cool open source data! I was wondering if you could generate flows pre and post Tarrifs to help show the difference? I would love to see the traffic to the ports before the changes to trade policy. Or send a link if I missed it!

Great work!

There’s notion if you want a mix of notes and pins.