I always wondered about this dynamic with how the Great Recession stock crash was October 2008, 1 month before the election. I was too young to be paying attention but it'd make sense to me if alot free market conservatives losing confidence contributed to the timing of the bubble pop.

IDK, I assume job losses would be close to even.

I know it used to be republicans won retirees and democrats did better amongst the working age population. I know that sort of evened out in the 2 elections Biden ran in. Since he's old as dirt he did relatively well for a Dem amongst retirees.

IDK, I do think the All In podcast hosts sometimes are using motivated reasoning. In my opinion it's tough for them to admit asset prices falling are bad and the government austerity they want is a factor in it.

I appreciate Ben's post sort of calling BS on it.

You're right about what Chamath said in his tweet.

I guess I just wish Chamath would have fully put what he said in the podcast in his tweet cuz I found it insightful and possibly true. And I found it interesting your post corroborated his podcast point about the differential in constituent pain.

Atleast that was my understanding of his point after watching an All In pod clip.

If the average bear market stock drawdown is 35% but the average housing performance during recessions is 2.1%. You're bolstering the part of Chamath's point of Trump thinking the pain won't be to his constituents.

I don't think you actually disagree with Chamath as much as you think. My understanding of Chamath's point was that dems mostly live in apartments and their wealth is in stocks/401ks. Trump voters have most of their wealth in their homes. Therefore a recession hurts dems more and Trump's OK with it