Joe Loffredo
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jloffredo.bsky.social
Joe Loffredo
@jloffredo.bsky.social
PhD Candidate in Political Science @ MIT. Was: Client Success @ Civis Analytics, Rochester ‘20.
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If you have questions or comments, please reach out to me, Mike, or Asya!

Check out the paper here: papers.ssrn.com/abstract=537....
Reform Drift: How Incumbent Protection Undermines Descriptive Representation in Local Government
Institutional reforms designed to enhance democratic representation often place implementation in the hands of incumbents. We examine how incumbents use this co
papers.ssrn.com
July 31, 2025 at 8:06 PM
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The broader takeaway: the success of democratic reforms depends on how they’re implemented.

Even well-designed efforts to improve representation can be blunted by those with the power to carry them out.
July 31, 2025 at 8:06 PM
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Incumbent protection was most common when officials had both motive and opportunity:
– Smaller cities
– Whiter populations
– Lower turnout
– Competitive elections

The consequences were stark. Incumbent protection deterred challengers and reduced Latino electoral success.
July 31, 2025 at 8:06 PM
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Using a redistricting simulation algorithm, we show that cities overwhelmingly drew lines that placed incumbents alone in their districts.

In 63% of cities, the enacted map ranked in the 99th percentile or higher for avoiding incumbent pairings.
July 31, 2025 at 8:06 PM
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The California Voting Rights Act (2001) pushed hundreds of cities to switch from at-large to district elections to improve minority representation, especially for Latino communities.

But it left incumbent city councils in charge of approving the new district lines.
July 31, 2025 at 8:06 PM
Please reach out with questions or feedback!
December 12, 2024 at 7:44 PM
CongressRA is still under development. We attempt to recreate the measurement creation process of Binder (2009) as a preliminary example of a use case. We welcome feedback on other ways to demonstrate the advantages of LLM agents.
December 12, 2024 at 7:44 PM
We presented this paper at last week's "AI and the Study of Political Institutions" at USC's Political Institutions and Political Economy (PIPE) Collaborative. In our paper, we introduce CongressRA, an LLM agent for studying the US Congress to showcase our framework.
December 12, 2024 at 7:44 PM
Specifically, we argue and try to show that LLMs, when equipped with predefined functions and data retrieval capabilities, can help researchers with data collection, processing, and analysis.
December 12, 2024 at 7:44 PM